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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Goal posts are narrowing on where to pop the low...with 18z Euro close to where 0z GFS did. NAM may be doing it's thing of over amping too soon with the AL solution.
  2. TellicoWx
    Yeah, good trends on all the OP's so far..3/3 on digging trough more
  3. TellicoWx
    00z GFS
  4. TellicoWx
    Pops low NC/VA/TN line
  5. TellicoWx
    Goofy trying to dig a little more
  6. TellicoWx
    0z RGEM
  7. TellicoWx
    0z RGEM popping the low over Sevier Co...gonna be a good run
  8. TellicoWx
    0z RGEM digging the trough a little more as well
  9. TellicoWx
    NAM dug the trough more at H5..and generated the low...an outlier right now, but with the continued snow showers behind it, think the precip shield/totals would be a little higher in that scenario
  10. TellicoWx
    0z NAM starts off with a twist...forms Low over AL...runs it up the eastern valley
  11. TellicoWx
    That looks about like middle ground right now...north end = WV, south end = NC/GA/SC border
  12. TellicoWx
    Another one that comes to mind is a few years back that affected areas east of 75
  13. TellicoWx
    This line from MRX in the afternoon AFD pretty much sums up the mood the model OP runs have lol I`m still not ready to discuss accumulation numbers at this point
  14. TellicoWx
    Lol, wish I could...2"-3" in the central/southern valley would be an incredible win for Christmas
  15. TellicoWx
    Agree, that's showing a prevelant low road track and in best timing for climo...If Pacific cooperates just a little could be a memorable Jan
  16. TellicoWx
    18z GEFS
  17. TellicoWx
    18z GEFS pretty much stayed the same, but individual members look a lot better. Mean isn't skewed by a single member that had 16+ like 12z
  18. TellicoWx
    Euro finally popping a surface low on the Lee side..just over WV.
  19. TellicoWx
    UKie is la nada
  20. TellicoWx
    GEFS has alot more uncertainty in it now..mean is skewed by a monster
  21. TellicoWx
  22. TellicoWx
    Ratio'd map
  23. TellicoWx
    12z GFS slower but pops the Lee low closer to NC/TN line
  24. TellicoWx
    If you run the same loop at hour 6 on the Euro (tried it the past couple systems to see how it's doing), the hour 60-78 window it seems to work the "kinks" out..so I would agree we should have alot of answers (one way or the other by 0z tomorrow)
  25. TellicoWx
    Something interesting to watch..go to hr 90 on the 0z GFS/Euro (Pivotal) at 500...and run a model trend. The GFS is far more consistent than the Euro (jumps all over the place every other run)...past was always other way around. Whatever upgrades was done to the Euro, I'm starting to wonder if it was a step backwards...was same during hurricane season. Either GEFs is just in another ballpark or the King has been dethroned lol
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