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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Actually it shows just how dynamic this system is...Timmer has been harping on the tornado threat over the Carolinas the last two days. With the dynamics in play, more deepening of the low wouldn't completely surprise me.
  2. TellicoWx
    Agree with @snowbird1230, hope they have a generator. Mtn wave event, plus heavy snow not a good combo up there with the temps that will follow
  3. TellicoWx
    3k NAM
  4. TellicoWx
    Don't think it is so much the timing of the front, more precip shield expanding as we draw closer and low strength/placement
  5. TellicoWx
    Euro/HRRR/NAM/3k all with significant jumps west...not even gonna wait on RGEM/GFS/CMC...think MRX will have to consider pulling the WSW back to Knox/Blount
  6. TellicoWx
    0z HRRR (and NW flow snow is still ongoing)
  7. TellicoWx
  8. TellicoWx
    0z HRRR following Euro west compared to 18z
  9. TellicoWx
    Front approaching the Mississippi River currently
  10. TellicoWx
    Due to the timing of this (Christmas Eve travel)..it makes it harder to wait until getting into more of the HRRR/RAP wheelhouse
  11. TellicoWx
    If they ride with the Euro and it holds serve (no trend west)..I could see them possibly upgrading from Knox/Blount to WSW...and adding McMinn/Rhea/Meigs/Central,Northern Plateau to a WWA...barring the CMC/RGEM don't pull a GFS (then they hold serve)
  12. TellicoWx
    They have heavy weighted the Euro, with it trending west, if that continues. Do they remain with it (extend advisory/warnings) or do they flip and disregard it?
  13. TellicoWx
    Yes, the potential is there. If you take the Euro for the initial LP and combine it with the features with the banding/NW flow shown on the meso models (Global models aren't the best at those).
  14. TellicoWx
    If it backs up anymore at 0z, MRX is gonna have a tough call to make
  15. TellicoWx
    Lol, nvm just saw that was the Euro
  16. TellicoWx
    That's a fairly significant shift since 6z..when comparing 6z, 12z, 18z
  17. TellicoWx
    It comes down to the 700mb moisture...GFS is the driest, while RGEM keeps the 700 saturated..everyone else is in the middle
  18. TellicoWx
    OPRH (measure of potential snowfall rate) sounding over Monroe Co at the time of change over. -2.35, could be some really intense rates right after it changes over.
  19. TellicoWx
    From the 18z 3k, another feature that shows how vigorous this trough is...How many times do you see a model producing intense lake effect snow off Lake Wheeler in N. AL?
  20. TellicoWx
    I know, I know..it's the HRRR in la la land (end of it's run)..but something interesting. As the center of the trough passes by, there is an enhancement of snow over the valley. Something to watch for on the other short range modeling. With the way everything is modeled, and such a vigorous trough (evident by the numerous banding features on all short range models), while the wrap around low moisture is almost locked in, I think there is a "potential" to bust high across the valley back to middle TN on the forcing from the trough itself (wringing out all available moisture/ terrain enhancement for the plateau adding even more lift/ and the high snow ratios shown)....but could be wishful thinking too lol
  21. TellicoWx
    Wow, LaConte only got 6-8"? Recorded over a foot on the Skyway here. But, yeah it's usually about 25-30% below what the 3k shows on the peak here.
  22. TellicoWx
    Can differ from office to office on criteria...I know FFC is real low
  23. TellicoWx
    Actually like Middle/West TN odds going into Jan...alot better than last several years anyway
  24. TellicoWx
    Almost time to start watching reality vs short range models...almost a 40° spread between St.Louis to Omaha currently
  25. TellicoWx
    NW trend for the win lol jk
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