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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. Forrest Service usually shuts it down during an event (turn cars around at Indian Boundary entrance)..TDOT will put up the big road closed signs that block the road
  2. Current totals here..Mt Vernon/Belltown area 5.5" (still moderate snow), Coker Creek 6.2" (moderate snow)..Tellico 3" (flurries lol)...difference those bands make
  3. There's the energy...as it lifts NE should pop the low..Hwy 411 up the valley looks to be the divide line between 2-3" and 3"+ roughly
  4. Front just went thru Sweetwater...should be approaching Hwy 411 corridor
  5. Noticed spring city was down to 37..wind gusted close to 40 mph as arctic front came thru
  6. Skies dark enough here that it activated the street lights
  7. When you couple the dynamics/orographic lift/and models typically having a hard time "seeing" low level moisture...think a lot more of the area may bust higher after the initial thump
  8. Would have really liked to see the 0z Euro hold steady vs 18z (Knox/south)...MRX prob won't change anything as far as the advisories/warnings (except maybe move the warning a county to the west).
  9. Glancing at the 0z suite, looks like the ARW and HRRR were the only ones to get the front placement right vs current ground conditions. All the globals and NAM were slower vs reality
  10. If you loop all the 0z models at the same time frame, the LP placement is very close amongst all them...it's progressive bias is at longer range.
  11. Something to remember also about the GFS, it has a big convective feedback bias...could affect it's modeling of the precip shield
  12. It's pretty much a choice of err on side of public safety or catch twitter heat for being wrong if the warning busts. Think that was why they pulled the warning even tho the criteria wasn't quite met earlier this afternoon for NE TN (it was where they were confident the most travel impact would be regardless of how the models shifted tonight)
  13. Great point, and why I think MRX pulls the trigger on upgrades with the 4 am update. If it was a regular day, I think they wait until 6z/12z runs...but with it being Christmas Eve travel, it doesn't really give that leeway to inform the public
  14. They are not going to make a call until the entire 0z suite runs is my guess. Wouldn't be surprised if they delay the AFD, due to waiting on the 0z Euro
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