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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Problem with the plumes is they are basically an "ensemble" view of the NAM (use that loosely)...and they are like any other models ensembles at close range (jump more due to not being able to get a mean spread since it is so close to the event)...and in the fact they like to really overamp members, they arent good for totals. But they are one way to see a precursor of what the upcoming NAM run may do. They are for trend purposes only. As far as the RGEM, it used to be horrible IMBY..but the last year or so it has done a remarkable job on borderline events here. The more micro climates are at play, the more I pay attention to it.
  2. TellicoWx
    9z SREF looks better than the 3z...mean looks more like what the 6z Euro map did Plumes still haven't loaded
  3. TellicoWx
    WAA really getting going here this morning...temps in 20s in the valley, 50s at 1500'
  4. TellicoWx
    0z GFS
  5. TellicoWx
    GFS runs low up thru Charlotte
  6. TellicoWx
    Yeah, some of those bands really add up where they cross at
  7. TellicoWx
    0z RGEM
  8. TellicoWx
    Atleast the RGEM hasn't lost hope lol
  9. TellicoWx
    One thing that is prevelant behind the front on the 3k and HRRR, is the banding MRX was talking about...3k has some intense rates under them
  10. TellicoWx
    Soundings from Crossville and Athens after front passes thru @45 on the NAM..has a dry nose working in around the 700mb level
  11. TellicoWx
    I would believe it more than a deepening LP engaging the reverse and backing up lol
  12. TellicoWx
    3k NAM takes 6hrs to go from Gatlinburg to Bristol
  13. TellicoWx
    Yeah, just for that simple reason I would toss it lol
  14. TellicoWx
    Then it goes into OH, before remembering it's supposed to be in WV lol
  15. TellicoWx
    Before everyone cliff jumps lol...while not good, any shift in the LP generation will have big impacts on East TN. Models don't handle lee side genesis well.
  16. TellicoWx
    Plume for Tys, (mean not quite as bad as viewing thru 12hr mean) but is skewed due to the big ones
  17. TellicoWx
    For middle/west forum folks..mean catches the front, but jumps valley due to the late low...12 hr mean
  18. TellicoWx
    Yeah...looking at the mean progression, looks to be in the WV camp
  19. TellicoWx
    I dropped from 50% greater than 4" to 10%...40 north is 25%...NE TN 50%
  20. TellicoWx
    15z vs 21z for eastern valley (heavier amounts barely make it into NE TN)
  21. TellicoWx
    1" mean only makes it to TYS
  22. TellicoWx
    21z SREF with a big shift east with the LP..not a good run for south of 40 in the valley
  23. TellicoWx
    Agree, with Blue Ridge and John...overnight crew will prob issue for the typical areas (mtns/ va/ky)..tomorrow crew at the earliest for everyone else (if needed). As far as the short range models, we are still outside their greater error range..until there's a clear picture of what happens during the passage over the Rockies, H5 will still bounce around.
  24. TellicoWx
    Maybe John (or one of you guys can remember)...What would be a similar system (in regards to the potential banding) in the past? May give some insight into which had a better handle (Euro or GFS).
  25. TellicoWx
    Something that strikes me, is the strength of the NW flow on that RGEM map...not often you see a model have the setup to take NW flow all the way to the SC coast.
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