TellicoWx

Wish I could find the surface analysis for this...but a similar situation where you had a 1050 high move from the Rockies east, with a stalled frontal boundary right along the Apps with multiple waves..Jan 29 - Feb 1, 1951.

True Siberian air is very shallow..if modeling is even remotely close, it's either gonna back right against the plateau or the Apps. There's very few instances where I can remember NWS office raising a red flag like CPC did a week in advance.

Besides the snow...this would be devastating to the South

Prior post was in wrong thread..moved it to the right one

Posted this in wrong thread...don't remember CPC posting a heavy snow threat 8 days in advance before A strong cold front is forecast to push well south into the Gulf of Mexico later next week with an increasing chance that a wave of low pressure develops along the front by Feb 12. If a surface low develops, anomalously cold temperatures would support snow to the northwest of its track. A negatively tilted 500-hPa trough across the east-central U.S. along with subtropical ridging over the southwestern Atlantic supports a continued risk of winter weather across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The week-2 analog tools (Canadian and ECMWF ensemble means) imply this outcome with elevated probabilities of above normal precipitation for these areas. Based on these factors, a likely outbreak of Arctic Air, and 24-hour precipitation amounts of a 0.25 inch or more, liquid equivalent, from the ensemble means at varying daily intervals, a slight risk of heavy snow (2 to 4 inches, or greater) is posted for the Piedmont areas of the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and mid-Atlantic.

1985 was when the Tellico River froze solid...have old family albums with pics of cars/trucks driving up the middle of the river on the ice. Only time I have ever known the water to completely freeze and stop flowing at the Bald River Falls.

From WPC:

Lock it in then...marginal temps is a sure sign something is looming in the great valley..lol jk

This upcoming setup is reminding more and more of the "good ol' days"...even the loss of the pattern in the mid range (remember when people would get hyped, then line up on the cliffs, just to be reeled back in mid jump). Great job today by everyone posting btw.

Same here..also goes for posting trends on ensembles for me...usually goes exactly opposite on the next run after I post it lol

On side note...got light sleet falling here now

Hr 72-96 all winter long has had major changes occur at 500...this seems par for the course so far. Ride the ensembles until within hr 48.

What's the EPS members look like Holstons? Don't have access...will kinda tell if GEFS is out to lunch.

6z GEFS @102 mean and individual members...more members in the have column vs 0z.

0z Euro would be a monster storm for the SE if it played out that way around the 12th

0z Euro is a tad late, popping a low (wasn't there on the 12z) off GA/SC coast

GEFS is kinda split into a couple camps for the beginning of the week...so maybe V16 isnt completely lost

18z GEFs..while the run/run has ebbed back and forth...the last couple days has seen the overall mean slowly get better for the central/western areas as well..decent trend for the entire forum.

Solar~QBO~MJO~ENSO~rest of the teleconnections is what is being studied..As the solar winds/flares hit the upper tropo (QBO), it propagates downward effecting the MJO. Depending how the MJO reacts to the descending phase of the winds, it effects the upwelling of the ocean (effecting the ENSO),which in turn effects where the ridges/troughs are most likely to form..something happened to the solar influence around 2015/16...throwing the sequence out of balance. Think of how badly the analogs cold/warm LR outlooks have performed the last 5 yrs.

@Carvers Gap while the data set is limited..a big question now is why 2 of the last 3 cycles of QBO has featured a double dominant Westerlies (very little descending propagation of the Easterlies).

Basically, as more studies are being conducted (we understand very little of the exact why's/how's everything is linked), the number reading (+/-) doesn't mean exactly what it was thought to mean per se. A strong -QBO doesn't necessarily translate to cold East. The reading can be misleading..while we are currently at a +10..we are actually in a QBOE descending phase...Easterlies are beginning to work their way down thru the atmosphere. In last couple years there is strong evidence that depending how the whole column is moving (QBOE des/asc..QBOW asc/des), it can amplify or mute the effects of the MJO. Since we are currently in QBOE des...it should amply whatever phase the MJO is in. If we were in QBOW...even if the MJO was moving into the cold phases, it would not have as much effect as what we would think here. Everything is linked (solar flares/wind has an effect on QBO...which it's multi phases effects how the MJO reacts downstream...and so on)...Top-Down approach. One day we may be able to hopefully tie all the links together.

Agree with the microclimates..what makes being a weather enthusiast here that much more interesting. Something starting to notice is how this setup currently is hitting around Gatlinburg, is beginning to back to the SW..could help for mby if it can make the bend along the Blount/Monroe line

It's more NNW or due N trajectory

Same here..snowed most day but would melt off during any of the breaks..hill behind my house is about 150' or so higher...ground still white (little melting all day). Flakes now are small...figure DGZ is barely saturated enough.

Radar hasn't been showing anything here, so haven't looked outside since sundown. Light snow falling now, with dusting on elevated surfaces again.