TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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WPC Overall the trend continues to be southward in the deterministic models especially, as shown by the 12/18Z GFS and ECMWF, while the 12Z CMC was well north (00Z CMC has come south). Guidance for the most part takes the surface low across the Southeast before turning northeastward over the Atlantic. Ensemble mean guidance is a bit farther north with the low center, and felt like following closer to their track for the surface low was a safer bet given the ensemble member spread. 6z GEFS
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6z GEFS was a nice improvement over 0z GEFS. As WPC noted in their extended discussion, the GEFS was north of the OP with its tracking (only a couple members had any type of surface reflection near the gulf). 6z has almost half the members showing some type of reflection there now. With most of those cutting across the FL peninsula between Jacksoville and Orlando.
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CMC is very close to a copy of the GFS
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Oh Canada lol
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There's so much energy flying around, I'm not even looking past 72 hrs lol. Just look at 18z GFS for example for NE TN folks Thurs...believe it will be model mayhem for next couple weeks. Wouldn't be surprised if something appears suddenly at close range.
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That was when the Tellico River froze solid. My grandmother had pictures of someone driving their truck up the middle of the river on the ice, and people ice fishing at the old bar.
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Got enough sleet in Madisonville to make a little slushy snowman lol
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Turned into moderate slush balls here
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Think you guys on the plateau and around Knox are golden..even HRRR has LP to The east in next 2-3 hrs. Backside on even it is showing more moisture, brings more of the southern valley into play are 3-4pm.
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Mix bag of everything here in Madisonville
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PWS above 2000' here seem to have hit a brick wall as far as temps...seems warm nose up there has stopped for now
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15z HRRR took the 1" line down to Polk/Bradley line..think it's first time it's had me above the 1" line lol
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Think you guys around 40 still could be ok.....nose doesn't seem overly stout here...just enough to make it a sleet/rain mess
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This is a pws on Dayton Mtn (1250'), can see as the virga moved in, its pulling the 850s down (temp rising quicker)
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Not until the center passes, but with this being a weak system not alot to work with on the back side..like Jeff said, start as a quick period of sleet maybe, then cold rain is what I'm looking at.
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As far as my area, can confirm the 850s are rising. Valley areas here are sitting around 32, but the mountains are running 35-36 above 1500-2000'
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From SPC, 1"-2"+ HR rates
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More than the warm nose, starting to get concerned with the low level dry air..especially eastern central valley/south
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Here you go, Kuchera
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I know personally for my area, if we haven't flipped to snow within the first half hour to hour...will punt this one, and watch it thru you guys.
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There is going to be a very sharp cutoff it seems along that southern edge...could be where 15 miles or so means the difference between sleet mess and 2"-4"+
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Once you get this close to an event, the mean starts moving with the OP. Better to look at the individual members to see if it has locked a solution or not...still quite a few different outcomes in the GEFS.
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One thing about the GFS I can say 100% sure...that due east/west snowline across the southern counties isn't happening that way lol. About the oddest looking cutoff line I've ever seen at this close range.
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Here's the 18z NBM...while I don't look at it much, it's been slowly trending toward the GFS throughout the day. Maybe something to keep an eye on.
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As far as the NAM...rest of the CAMs looked more like GFS/Euro
