TellicoWx

Night and day difference between the GFS and CMC on how they handle the 850 and warm nose...Cross section of KTYS

Starting to get to the timeframe where the Ensembles just mirror the OPs

GEFS went the other direction

Little boy went missing up in the Coker Creek area..mountainous terrain and lots of creeks in the area he's missing. Knox Co has their helicopter with the FLIR system on it up there now. Hope they find him soon.

Nice little bump up on the CMC ensembles

Pivotal has it as well...it did ok with the last storm. Don't know its verification scores, I just started following then, pretty much only watched it to see which way it trended.

Yeah, NBM carries alot of weight when it comes to their forecast grids as you pointed out. 0z NBM is basically everything 18z suite spit out, plus some..and there's the final result. It's the experimental building block to reach their WRN goals.

NBM runs on 10k resolution, and uses every model from the HRRR to the NAVGEM, plus some models I have never heard of (EKDMOS, LAMP, etc)...with latest upgrade it uses 40+ different ones blended together. How it is "blended" first, the blending in the NBM does not use simple averaging, and Prof. Mass’s paper talkes about how this may work, in some detail. The blending in NBM is much more sophisticated than a simple average, and it is able to improve the skill of the result as well as retain detail in the data. secondly, the input models to the blend are from a wide variety of sources, both from NOAA and from outside of NOAA. For example, models from both Canada and the US Navy are included as elements of the blend. Both high resolution regional models and global models are considered. In a way, the NBM is a meta-ensemble, an advanced blending of other ensemble (and non-ensemble) models

Both 0z NAM and 0z RGEM @66...both take a low right into the Smokies. RGEM started having it on the 18z run.

18z EPS

Needs to outrun the energy behind it entering the northern plains...it is ever so slightly tugging on our system

18z Euro moved north a little

Here's the 12z Euro for KCHA...let's see what 18z has for us

Lol...im still on the fence, even tho it looks a lot better now then 24-36 hrs ago. As long as models keep showing that 850 jumping north (even if very weak), I'm leary of any solution.

BNA to FFC track or transfer between those two and historically that's money...comes in closer to HUN or too far south of BNA (unless it's a bomb) and valley ends up with issues.

If I was in southern middle back to Memphis, I would be telling the waiter "check please"

So basically you have every model (NAM, RGEM, EURO, CMC, UKIE, NOGAPS, Santa's 1K Experimental) all showing an 850 centers directly over or within 25 miles of BHam @78...then Goofy up on the TN/AL border...thats a pretty good consensus. What happens after 78 is debatable.

This feels like the old days lol...both globals find the system, one loses it in the 3-5 day window, just to end up refinding the storm again as we get closer.

There ended up being a subtle hint of the 850 trying to jump north (a little later than CMC and way weaker reflection)...something to watch.

850 was about 50 miles south of 6z track...in line with the NAM

Euro kicks down the magic wall in the CMC and continues east

Ukie is trash lol

If you want sanity...turn on the 850 wind field maps and follow the swirl...dont need any other map on model runs...north/northwest of the swirl...golden. over the top of you/east/south...move on to the next run

There is .0001% chance of the CMC playing out that way between 78 & 84...unless a magic brick wall forms lol