TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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It's been on different runs on models, Apps shearing the 850 once it reaches them
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12z Euro has a better moisture transport up the valley without blasting the LLJ (warm nose) up it..compared to say the 12z GFS which doesn't veer the LLJ as good up from the gulf (source region)...interesting to watch which has the better handle.
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Bullseye TYS
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12z Euro ticks south
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Besides the fluke 6z NAM where it was being the typical NAM over amping, this should be a good event board wide. Only areas of concern to me are 1) as Jeff said the very southern valley with its slight warm nose (trends have been slowly inching to a little better solution there) and 2) the moisture return near the Memphis/NW TN area. Less amping of the system doesn't get the moisture feed going until a hair late.
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No it's Kuchera..ratios little better with this system then the last
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GFS finally loaded on pivotal
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12z CMC
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12z GFS close to a copy of the RGEM
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GFS looks similar to 6z...touch south, less warm nose in southern valley
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RGEM shifted a tad south as well...NAM would have looked better but LLJ was too far out in front as it entered the state.
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Nice shift south on 12z NAM 850 entering near Memphis instead of Paducah...should be a decent run
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0z CMC adjust a tad south..takes 850 track thru center of the state
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Nice location...one of the best spots to score in the winter in the county
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Ingredients are there for a nice mid south slider..cold supply, nice 850 LLJ to tap the gulf, not an overly amped 850 (lessens the cut factor)...final recipe revolves around that 850 track and how far the warm nose off the LLJ nudges up the southern valley (if 850 tracks Southern border)
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Yep, took the 850 along the southern border vs the northern border @18z
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0z Nam took a more southern route along the TN border, more of a slider solution.
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GFS with vs GFS without the Jet streak
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GEFS doesn't agree with the OP on that 850 piece..hence the mean..better agreement between it and the Euro/CMC Ops
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Get that 850 and jet streak to stay down at TN southern border and you got another board wide event (GFS is missing that piece vs Euro/CMC)
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Glad you said that...got use to snow and 80
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12z vs 06z...decent move south on 850 placement plus that 50kt jet streak pulling into it (12z doesn't blast it north into TN/KY line)...very close to lighting a fuse.
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Very close to a big one..if the 850 just digs a hair more
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Uh oh Euro comes a little further south with 850 low...surface low going to take more southern track
