TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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Biggest thing I see is 1) Globals shear the 850 sooner vs HiRes...less time for the LLJ to nose up the valley. 2) Speed of the 850...some of the HiRes such as NAM has sped it up, while RGEM for example is the slowest. Globals have held steady. Faster solution/ less LLJ influence.
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0z GEFS
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Nice mean on the GEFS so far, almost whole state covered by 2" mark
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Gfs goes south lol
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3k precip shield looks better than what the snowfall map paints imo
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Yeah, kinda went off the rails that frame
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Possible Namming inbound lol
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Ever slight warm nose (even though the column is very close to that 32° line, it interprets it as rain/mix)
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Mixing issues
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18z Euro
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Have to love Broadcast Mets lol
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18z GEFS
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As @John1122noted earlier, a slower solution allows a little more amping. Rob Peter to pay Paul depending on if you are in the NW or SE corners of the state. Shap of TN is what makes a state wide snow that much more difficult.
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Keeping the LLJ south of the border brought @nrgjeffinto play on the GFS
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4"...alot of melting/compaction or would have been closer to 6"
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18z GFS keeps the LLJ south of TN border
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RGEM takes the LLJ winds up to Monroe/Loudon line...NAM takes it to N. Knox, maybe a little too much amping on the Nam
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18z RGEM a little more pronounced warm nose..I would basically draw a line from Spring City, Loudon, to Maryville...if you are above that line, I think confidence is good. Alot of uncertainty south of it..doesn't take much wiggle from the 850 to have a big consequence below it.
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18z NAM looks better with the LLJ not running too far out in front...should help western forum areas
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Looks more realistic than the OP
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Possible...i would think the precip shield would be larger, could see moderate returns..not what the Euro spit out
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I'm actually not sure why it keyed in on those
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Here's the sounding over those 3" per hour cells...maybe some of you guys can see what caused it.
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I would set that 12z Euro to the side...it does run an almost convective type cells starting on the southern plateau up the valley. I dont see that type of dynamics to support it as @Holston_River_Ramblerpointed out.
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No, it's just a weak vort...some have had it shear out over middle TN on prior runs.
