TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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PWS above 2000' here seem to have hit a brick wall as far as temps...seems warm nose up there has stopped for now
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15z HRRR took the 1" line down to Polk/Bradley line..think it's first time it's had me above the 1" line lol
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Think you guys around 40 still could be ok.....nose doesn't seem overly stout here...just enough to make it a sleet/rain mess
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This is a pws on Dayton Mtn (1250'), can see as the virga moved in, its pulling the 850s down (temp rising quicker)
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Not until the center passes, but with this being a weak system not alot to work with on the back side..like Jeff said, start as a quick period of sleet maybe, then cold rain is what I'm looking at.
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As far as my area, can confirm the 850s are rising. Valley areas here are sitting around 32, but the mountains are running 35-36 above 1500-2000'
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From SPC, 1"-2"+ HR rates
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More than the warm nose, starting to get concerned with the low level dry air..especially eastern central valley/south
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Here you go, Kuchera
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I know personally for my area, if we haven't flipped to snow within the first half hour to hour...will punt this one, and watch it thru you guys.
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There is going to be a very sharp cutoff it seems along that southern edge...could be where 15 miles or so means the difference between sleet mess and 2"-4"+
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Once you get this close to an event, the mean starts moving with the OP. Better to look at the individual members to see if it has locked a solution or not...still quite a few different outcomes in the GEFS.
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One thing about the GFS I can say 100% sure...that due east/west snowline across the southern counties isn't happening that way lol. About the oddest looking cutoff line I've ever seen at this close range.
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Here's the 18z NBM...while I don't look at it much, it's been slowly trending toward the GFS throughout the day. Maybe something to keep an eye on.
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As far as the NAM...rest of the CAMs looked more like GFS/Euro
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That consistency lead to places like MRX and HUN to pull the WWA south of 40
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Think 95% of the board would cash out the GFS...have to admire the consistency
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18z GFS doesn't budge on its track
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Just noticed HUN went with a WWA
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If I was MRX, I would hold off until 0z on any changes. But if I had to make a decision now, upgrade WSW to a Warning and WWA Loudon/Blount north. 1" or less south of that in the valley.
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Agree...its like someone switched the CMC and Ukie.
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I think since last year that the old bias doesn't apply anymore...Euro seems to lost some of its shine, Ukie has turned into garbage, and somehow the GFS has found a way to be more steady (can remember it holding steady last year while the Euro caved to it). Believe there's a new set of bias that needs figured out. As far as this system, think the pieces are so weak that if you move them 1 county north or south, shear them 3 hrs sooner/later, or even the angle of the press from the northern stream..it has big changes to the final solution. Think the answer is somewhere in the middle.
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15z vs 9z RAP is a good example of the speed/shearing earlier...6z has a more pronounced 850 while 15z has already begun shearing apart....as they reach the plateau.
