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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    This is more worrisome to me than any of the snow. When MRX talks about historic, this is what they are referring to imo. Yeah it gets below zero plenty times in the past several years, but that's with snow pack and radiational cooling on light winds. Not so common to go below zero plus 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50.
  2. TellicoWx
    3k looks 100x better west of the plateau
  3. TellicoWx
    For a sliver of hope...GEFS mean actually had a nice little increase for the eastern valley
  4. TellicoWx
    CMC at 12z vz 00z....feel like the announcer off movie Major League..."juuussst a bit outside" lol.
  5. TellicoWx
    One more step back on the models and all TN will be out of play (except the normal NWSF areas of plateau/mtns). GFS cave to the Euro/CMC almost complete.
  6. TellicoWx
    GFS = Grinch Fools Snowlovers lol
  7. TellicoWx
    Brutal..windchills on Christmas Eve morning
  8. TellicoWx
    Seen it happen before..feeling the effects of the Hudson low (path of least resistance)
  9. TellicoWx
    Yeah if the 18z is remotely in the ballpark..mountains will get hammered.
  10. TellicoWx
    That's been stuck in my head all day..Hybrid Miller B. Just enough weakness to lift north...then transfer to the se coast (if the models are under doing the interaction between the two highs..basically more of a banana high)
  11. TellicoWx
    I wouldnt quite right off the valley...especially central/northern areas. Going to depend on how quickly that front can plow off the plateau and how much moisture transport makes it over from the lakes.
  12. TellicoWx
    Yeah, believe those guys are setup good for this system...plus the upslope areas of the plateau/mtns/ne tn. Not quite buying the wound up, cold front passage of the Euro. Between this arctic airmass squeezing out every drop of moisture/ the feed off the lakes..middle/ west TN is the money spot.
  13. TellicoWx
  14. TellicoWx
    Nice hit west of the plateau on the 18z GFS..think you guys in that area are in a good spot.
  15. TellicoWx
    Unless something drastic changes near the Hudson Bay...anything that forms is going to cut that way (attacking the weakness between the two Highs). With each "upgrade", it's almost like their is truncation periods around every 72 hr time-frame where larger moves happen.
  16. TellicoWx
    I remember tracking one several years ago that had a similar solution at this range (except the roles were reversed between GFS/Euro). Everyone (myself included) thought the GFS was out to lunch...storm ended up cutting straight into the block. So agree with you completely.
  17. TellicoWx
    Another step forward on the means..nice and steady. Have a feeling we are going to see a correction good/bad in the next 24 hrs.
  18. TellicoWx
    Treat the Ops as 1 more ensemble member..GEFS and CMC ensemble took steeps in the right direction as far as the mean...all solutions still on the table when you look at their 10/90 depth spreads.
  19. TellicoWx
    Safe to say that if, big "if", that 12z GFS run came to fruition...much of the eastern half of the US is closed during busiest travel time of the year.
  20. TellicoWx
    GFS said hold my beer lol
  21. TellicoWx
    Switched to heavy snow here about 10 mins ago...ground already turned white, roads are still just wet
  22. TellicoWx
    Heavy sleet here
  23. TellicoWx
    Oakland, TN...6" measured
  24. TellicoWx
    Tornado watch hoisted for the Florida panhandle...possibility of strong tornadoes.
  25. TellicoWx
    Huntsville changed over to sleet...cold white puddles forming in Florence, AL
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