TellicoWx

One thing definitely going for the system if it pans out, not dealing with record warmth heading into it

12z GEFS is first run without last night's system affecting the maps. Some decent members statewide again. To me the Euro has lost some of its shine since 2020. Little system hopefully works out for those 40 and North that missed out this past system.

Excellent analysis for the KCHA area Jeff, completely agree. I always feel for you guys. Not a ton of elevation difference or distance between Chatt and Madisonville, yet it's like they are on two different playing fields.

Looks like closer to the 411 corridor did better here, still decent amount on the ground and snow on the emergency lanes.

I know for mby, the snow depth charts wasn't too far off on most the short range models. While I have little doubt the snow accum maps verified from some of the rates were falling across the county. What hurt more than the warm ground, was the heavy rain before transition due to the latent heat release all the ground moisture gave off imo.

Haven't heard...they went down to 32° about an hour and a half before I did...my guess is they got nailed. All the mountain is out of power.

We have trees down everywhere here, FLEC reporting 4200 power outages, lots of cars slid of the roadways this morning around the county. Still have 3"-4" of paste, which considering the melting/compaction..models wasn't too far off on snowfall outputs here.

Picked up 1.5" so far, little melting and compaction happening as well.

Ground has turned white here...surprised how quick it did..picked up 1.03" of rain before the switch. Goose feathers falling now.

Well that escalated quickly...pouring snow, roof already turning white

5° temp drop here in last 10 mins....39 to 34.

Changeover happening here...big wet flakes mixing in now

Snow line is falling fairly quickly...here (900') and Coker Creek (1800'), was both at 42...im at 39 and Coker creek is at 34 now.

Unless theses modeled snowflakes can swim, don't know how it would accumulate..falling a flood here

Pouring rain and 42.2

Roadways becoming snow covered in Huntsville, and lighting detected on radar in the deform band west of BHam...absolutely pouring snow across N AL

Rain/snow line has definitely accelerated east across Southern middle TN/ northern AL in last 30 min or so as seen on HUN CC scans

Colbert Co, AL EMA reporting 2" and heavy snow

1000% agree....good example is the 01z HRRR, apparently inhaled some of the crack fumes from the 0z NAM for mby

I say it needs drug tested lol...jumped my area to 11"

Changeover happening across Nothern AL as the tilt continues. Radar confirmation (pic from Gravelly, AL near Florence)

Definitely agree it's starting to tilt, which helps middle TN warm nose problem. MS/AL border has already switched to all snow

Areas affected...parts of the southern Appalachians and Southeast Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 030019Z - 030515Z SUMMARY...Periods of moderate to heavy snow will likely develop through this evening as temperatures begin to drop and forcing for ascent strengthens markedly. Snow rates of 0.5-1 in/hour will be possible with the strongest bands. Brief periods of mixed precipitation including sleet and freezing rain may also develop. DISCUSSION...As of 0015 UTC, a potent mid-level shortwave trough was analyzed via WV imagery across the eastern ARKLATEX. To the south, a 90-100 kt jet streak was beginning to round the base of the positively tilted trough moving onshore across southwestern LA. A broad area of low pressure at the surface was centered across western GA with an expanding precipitation shield noted to the northwest of the low and ongoing convection. Recent surface observations across southwestern TN and northern MS have shown an increase in the occurrence of snow and mixed precipitation types over the last few hours with diurnal cooling taking place. Strong height falls from the approaching trough are forecast to advect eastward over the next few hours as the trough becomes negatively tilted, augmenting surface mass response and deepening the aforementioned surface low. Low-level cold advection should follow suit, accelerating the change over, first to mixed precipitation, and then quickly to snow of parts of the expanding precipitation field. While temperatures remain mild, the rain/snow line should move eastward with time concurrent with increasing precipitation rates from strengthening 850-700 frontogenesis and the development of convective bands owing to subtle buoyancy aloft. Regional soundings show favorable profiles for periods of moderate and occasional heavy snow expanding northeastward with time from northern AL into eastern/central TN along the western slopes of the southern Appalachians. Snow rates of 0.5 to 0.75 in/hr will be possible for several hours resulting in reduced visibility and potential travel issues. Localized 1+ in/hr rates may also be possible beneath the heavier convective elements or near local topography favorable for orographic enhancement. Snow may linger for a few hours overnight before forcing and dry air to the west shift precipitation northeastward.

I know its nowcast time, but 18z Euro just had its best run for me...8". Better late than never I guess lol.