TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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12z Euro
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12z Euro says GFS may not have lost its mind...big jump in the valley
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So basically it's auto correcting each model with every passing hour and spitting out the final total solution
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Dug more into the NBM..its running hourly but cant download the grib files unless you have the credentials. This system is a big test for it, uses the current conditions to reanalyze pretty much all the models solutions for the current time frame, then corrects the known bias that is being shown and applies that to the blending for each hourly update.
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Unless the NBM changes drastically (too much model spread still I think), very doubtful they will
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I think you are golden..add in the clipper system trailing right on the heels
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Think the models are really struggling with the thermals, especially the southern valley. If you follow the path of the cold core as it swings thru Central MS/AL, its like they don't know how to handle it column wise once it reaches the TN/GA/NC border....hence the range is still T-10" lol.
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@Holston_River_Rambler...here's the Xsec at TYS from the 12z RGEM and 3k NAM...trend the last 4 runs has to been slowly erode the finger quicker. At Lovell, the finger is almost completely gone, which is what is jumping the totals over the southern valley on some models
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I dont think I've ever been as less confident about a storm that has had anywhere from 3" to 13" centered over McMinn, Monroe, Polk. Crazy evolution with this one, definitely wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
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You can see how the trailing system opens up the path for this to get pulled more NW vs 0z (weakness over KY/IL/IN..wouldn't put it past turning into a cutter west of the Apps before all is said and done.
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Only problem with that is a bird can fart in Minnesota and throw the whole Hires models off right now lol.
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18z GFS NAMd you lol
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Not a huge change from 6z for the valley
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Cross sectional from 12z RGEM...Lovell vs TYS (all models showing southern valley needs less help). My question is, "Is the problem more of a downslope issue vs a true 850 warm nose surging up the valley?"
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Looking at the cross sectionals, I would rather be at Lovell than Tys, as hard as that is to believe lol. Column needs alot less help at your place
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This shows how close the valley is...temp cross sectional on the low levels at TYS (from 3k NAM pretty much same across all modeling). Finger of death for snow fans..but wouldn't take much to go either way.
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That is what is messing up the 850..needs more separation or the valley is left on the outside looking in
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Looking at the cross sectionals of the 0z suite at KTYS, outside the CMC, they are all ugly....more pronounced warm nose with this suite.
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Night and day difference between the GFS and CMC on how they handle the 850 and warm nose...Cross section of KTYS
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Starting to get to the timeframe where the Ensembles just mirror the OPs
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GEFS went the other direction
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Little boy went missing up in the Coker Creek area..mountainous terrain and lots of creeks in the area he's missing. Knox Co has their helicopter with the FLIR system on it up there now. Hope they find him soon.
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Nice little bump up on the CMC ensembles
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Pivotal has it as well...it did ok with the last storm. Don't know its verification scores, I just started following then, pretty much only watched it to see which way it trended.
