TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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Goose Feathers falling in Jackson, TN
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Fayette Co, TN from Twitter
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HUN
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Interesting statement from MRX in that graphic...says visibility will be near zero at times early Mon morning
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MRX:
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Yeah thats the bad side of the LP position..downslopes the plateau..kinda like a half pipe effect created by the valley
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With the position of the low pulling the deform band in, it creates extra upslope lift along the smokies.
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Ridley, TN from Twitter:
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It's all going to depend on where the deform band setups up when it pivots (12z suite has along and east of I75).
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Good luck to you guys out west...basically nowcast time for yall. Alot of "surprise snow" and "did not expect this" tweets coming out of AR. Radar looks decent setting up between Memphis and Pine Bluff.
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Yeah will be interesting to watch evolve east of the MS. The runs with decent amounts had that tounge of precip on them last night. Really takes off east of the river on those runs.
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Lots of 1/2" to 1" pics coming out of AR in areas where no accum was forecast this morning
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6z HRRR...
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Only difference between the Euro and GFS is 1) Euro is a little south with SLP vs GFS and 2) Euro is about 4mb weaker on the SLP. Combine those two and it is just a tad slower with the changeover in the valley. At 30 (height of the precip in the valley), GFS has changed over and Euro is still mixed bag (about a 2° difference right at the surface)
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Not quite like the rest of the models, but another step in that direction
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0z Euro already better
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Some of these GEFS members....
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Forgot one....0z GEFS mean
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0z CMC...(basically cut and paste every other 0z model and you will get the same result)
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Tonight's power snowball numbers (for my town) 8, 8, 7, 6, 8, 9 (inches per each models 0z run)...I will like to cashout with 50% of those please lol
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0z GFS held serve
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That's insane rates along the NC/VA border on the 0z GFS...pegs pivotal out.
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0z RGEM
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This image from the 0z RGEM speaks volumes...back that center up 50 miles and those type of returns, would be crazy. (0z RGEM looks good regardless)
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@John1122and @dwagner88both make valid points. Honestly, there's accurate enough algo to determine what will actually stick. If I was forced to make a call (barring a meltdown with the rest of the 0z suite and 6z), I would say 1"-3" for the valley, 2"-4" for the rim of the foothills, and name your number for the mountains. But thats why I don't get paid to make calls too lol.
