TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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If you put the 850 position of the NAM in GFS spot..Chattanooga would get nailed. NAM tries to run the LLJ out ahead, up and over the Apps..that leads to the wonky solution northern valley.
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That's the million dollar question...how does the 850 track. While the setup is different, the 850 is close to the same track as the last system. Globals were off with it (kept the 850 close to the TN border), when it actually came up to almost I40. 850 has to slide south of your area, or this storm will be a No Go. If this was a stacked system, then the actual surface reflection would have more weight.
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Part of reason it looks like GEFS cut totals, was so.e member jumped far enough south that north precip goes south of the area. Definitely has a greater spread in outcomes now
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0z GEFS
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Big cut in totals on 0z GEFS
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Not sure how the other 0z runs will go, but 0z ICON was a little further south...temp profiles seemed off tho on it
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Would have definitely loved to see the next couple frames
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Why do I feel like the Raiders head coach in the Oak/SD game lol...was all content with running out the clock on this one, and then bam, 18z GEFS has to call a timeout. Thats fine then, we do or die with this one GEFS...no tie.
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For me I've sent the punt team out on the field. If it was only the GFS Op acting goofy would be one thing, but as WPC/Carvers/Webb/etc have noted...the snowy solution is losing the GEFs/EPS/CMC ensembles. The SLP can track however it wants, but 850 track has continuously got worse each suite across all modeling
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0z Euro is a mess...sleet/snow
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It's banter, but that was one heck of an overall OP run
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Only 34.7" at Andrews, NC lol
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If you are in eastern valley and want to lift your spirits, look at the GFS LR clown map lol
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A year or so ago I would have loved this map, but for what it's worth 0z Ukie
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0z GEFS
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Feast or famine on the GEFS...mean doesn't tell whole story, some huge members in there
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18z EPS
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Largest majority of 18z EPS members keep the system to our SE
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There is a huge difference between the Euro and the GFS...Euro is almost vertically stacked (850 digs basically Jackson to Birmingham w/SLP in same general area)...GFS is further North along I40 w/SLP bouncing between the gulf and closer to the 850. While the prior system was night and day compared to the strength, the GFS performed the worst as far as accurately tracking the 850 (which played into it under estimating the warm nose/incorrectly modeling the moisture feed).
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For those south of 40, really need to watch the 850 on the GFS...need it to dig a little more. 12z was tip toeing the line (running it right on the southern border).
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Can't remember the posters name, but was on the old boards years ago. He lived in Atlanta and had one of the best databases for that area I have ever seen. From what I remember (cause it surprised us then)..COD had actually produced alot of their big time storms.
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12z GFS is a thing of beauty...you can see how the 12z Euro isn't quite as tightened up...definitely like where we are sitting. Anyone under that comma head on the GFS is in for a treat.
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Don't want to be anywhere near the bullseye at this range lol
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6z EPS
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Think the Southeast guys are having a heart attack after the 6z EPS Control lol
