TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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18z GFS keeps the LLJ south of TN border
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RGEM takes the LLJ winds up to Monroe/Loudon line...NAM takes it to N. Knox, maybe a little too much amping on the Nam
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18z RGEM a little more pronounced warm nose..I would basically draw a line from Spring City, Loudon, to Maryville...if you are above that line, I think confidence is good. Alot of uncertainty south of it..doesn't take much wiggle from the 850 to have a big consequence below it.
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18z NAM looks better with the LLJ not running too far out in front...should help western forum areas
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Looks more realistic than the OP
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Possible...i would think the precip shield would be larger, could see moderate returns..not what the Euro spit out
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I'm actually not sure why it keyed in on those
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Here's the sounding over those 3" per hour cells...maybe some of you guys can see what caused it.
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I would set that 12z Euro to the side...it does run an almost convective type cells starting on the southern plateau up the valley. I dont see that type of dynamics to support it as @Holston_River_Ramblerpointed out.
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No, it's just a weak vort...some have had it shear out over middle TN on prior runs.
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It's been on different runs on models, Apps shearing the 850 once it reaches them
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12z Euro has a better moisture transport up the valley without blasting the LLJ (warm nose) up it..compared to say the 12z GFS which doesn't veer the LLJ as good up from the gulf (source region)...interesting to watch which has the better handle.
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Bullseye TYS
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12z Euro ticks south
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Besides the fluke 6z NAM where it was being the typical NAM over amping, this should be a good event board wide. Only areas of concern to me are 1) as Jeff said the very southern valley with its slight warm nose (trends have been slowly inching to a little better solution there) and 2) the moisture return near the Memphis/NW TN area. Less amping of the system doesn't get the moisture feed going until a hair late.
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No it's Kuchera..ratios little better with this system then the last
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GFS finally loaded on pivotal
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12z CMC
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12z GFS close to a copy of the RGEM
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GFS looks similar to 6z...touch south, less warm nose in southern valley
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RGEM shifted a tad south as well...NAM would have looked better but LLJ was too far out in front as it entered the state.
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Nice shift south on 12z NAM 850 entering near Memphis instead of Paducah...should be a decent run
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0z CMC adjust a tad south..takes 850 track thru center of the state
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Nice location...one of the best spots to score in the winter in the county
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Ingredients are there for a nice mid south slider..cold supply, nice 850 LLJ to tap the gulf, not an overly amped 850 (lessens the cut factor)...final recipe revolves around that 850 track and how far the warm nose off the LLJ nudges up the southern valley (if 850 tracks Southern border)
