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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    0z UKie has a similar piece that tries to dive in the backside...(stripe across AL)...starting to pickup up a potential phase maybe?
  2. TellicoWx
    The one thing that is sticking out to me (and we have all seen it before)..is usually at some point even the GEFs loses a storm and brings it back (alot of wavering run to run)...it has been a really long time since I can remember the GEFs maintain a system this long (strengthening with each subsequent run this far out)
  3. TellicoWx
    I think you will have no worries...southern valley possibly. The number of members now spitting out 2"+ amounts down into north central AL and NW GA has certainly got my attention lol
  4. TellicoWx
    Yeah noticed the same on the GEFs...few members now going almost toward a more traditional Miller A
  5. TellicoWx
    Generated the Lee side low slightly to far to the NE
  6. TellicoWx
    Would like to see an ensemble of the CMC...OP was close to nailing the whole eastern valley
  7. TellicoWx
    Almost all ensemble members are now onboard..0z GEFS
  8. TellicoWx
    Decent amount of GEFS members still picking up the Lee low and hammering the eastern valley
  9. TellicoWx
    Excellent write-up...the development of the Lee low will be on again/off again at this range (hard enough for models to get it right at close range). If you want a "surprise" snow (whether it's in the Rockies/Appalachians/Alps)...this is the setup. It was why the studies have been conducted so much in the Alps (unfortunately our mtns don't go that high, which is why it's more rare here)..due to LP forming in the Lee of the range even when zero vort maxes was depicted in modeling.
  10. TellicoWx
    The two camps have been fairly consistent the last couple days at H5...12z I think signaled which camp is caving (Euro towards the GFS). Both have a spoke of energy rounding the flow at 12z (GFS just had more of a surface reflection)...that spoke is gonna vary probably all the way until 24-36 hrs from the start. When/if Ops start losing that, then we will trouble. Euro wasn't a hair from the GFS solution.
  11. TellicoWx
    12z GEFS keeps improving
  12. TellicoWx
    12z GFS still onboard
  13. TellicoWx
    I like where we are at currently, still a lot of boom or bust potential so to speak. Upside, at H5 most the modeling is holding the energy back to the sw compared to the more progressive GFS. Also, the depth and degree of the cold shown will lead to some high ratios (even with the GFS setup, atmos will squeeze out all the moisture it can). Downside, if the GFS is correct with it's more progressive solution (consolidating at the lakes vs a strong spoke of energy rotating thru and enhancing the Lee side), we end up with a light event...Regardless, it will be nice to see flakes on Christmas..we all know how rare that is. Next 24-36 hrs will be interesting to watch at H5.
  14. TellicoWx
    UKie/Euro OP now developing a lee side low similar to what the GFS had been doing. Several studies in the past couple decades have centered around mountain ranges assisting in low development...models tend to struggle somewhat when this occurs. Winds have to hit and ascend at just the right angle or you end up with a plain fropa.
  15. TellicoWx
    0z Euro
  16. TellicoWx
    0z UKie
  17. TellicoWx
    Individual members
  18. TellicoWx
    Nice improvement on the 0z GEFS
  19. TellicoWx
    UKie/Euro/CMC (even with it's meandering run which gives the snow) are consolidating the energy along the southern end = cutter city...GFS is kinda on an island, but has taken steps toward the others (went from initial low up into Canada to winding up over the GL)...bias maybe, but "if" toward the tail then need it to keep digging to our south.
  20. TellicoWx
    Dr No strikes again lol
  21. TellicoWx
    00z Euro
  22. TellicoWx
    Yeah def a weird run...closes it off and drives it south while taking its time at 500..meanders across the forum
  23. TellicoWx
    00z GEFs looks better than 18z
  24. TellicoWx
    00z CMC
  25. TellicoWx
    12z vs 00z 500...both still produce areas of 6+ across the forum..GFS keeps honking about something lol
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