Jump to content

TellicoWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,287

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    0z Euro is a tad late, popping a low (wasn't there on the 12z) off GA/SC coast
  2. TellicoWx
    GEFS is kinda split into a couple camps for the beginning of the week...so maybe V16 isnt completely lost
  3. TellicoWx
    18z GEFs..while the run/run has ebbed back and forth...the last couple days has seen the overall mean slowly get better for the central/western areas as well..decent trend for the entire forum.
  4. TellicoWx
    Solar~QBO~MJO~ENSO~rest of the teleconnections is what is being studied..As the solar winds/flares hit the upper tropo (QBO), it propagates downward effecting the MJO. Depending how the MJO reacts to the descending phase of the winds, it effects the upwelling of the ocean (effecting the ENSO),which in turn effects where the ridges/troughs are most likely to form..something happened to the solar influence around 2015/16...throwing the sequence out of balance. Think of how badly the analogs cold/warm LR outlooks have performed the last 5 yrs.
  5. TellicoWx
    @Carvers Gap while the data set is limited..a big question now is why 2 of the last 3 cycles of QBO has featured a double dominant Westerlies (very little descending propagation of the Easterlies).
  6. TellicoWx
    Basically, as more studies are being conducted (we understand very little of the exact why's/how's everything is linked), the number reading (+/-) doesn't mean exactly what it was thought to mean per se. A strong -QBO doesn't necessarily translate to cold East. The reading can be misleading..while we are currently at a +10..we are actually in a QBOE descending phase...Easterlies are beginning to work their way down thru the atmosphere. In last couple years there is strong evidence that depending how the whole column is moving (QBOE des/asc..QBOW asc/des), it can amplify or mute the effects of the MJO. Since we are currently in QBOE des...it should amply whatever phase the MJO is in. If we were in QBOW...even if the MJO was moving into the cold phases, it would not have as much effect as what we would think here. Everything is linked (solar flares/wind has an effect on QBO...which it's multi phases effects how the MJO reacts downstream...and so on)...Top-Down approach. One day we may be able to hopefully tie all the links together.
  7. TellicoWx
    Agree with the microclimates..what makes being a weather enthusiast here that much more interesting. Something starting to notice is how this setup currently is hitting around Gatlinburg, is beginning to back to the SW..could help for mby if it can make the bend along the Blount/Monroe line
  8. TellicoWx
    It's more NNW or due N trajectory
  9. TellicoWx
    Same here..snowed most day but would melt off during any of the breaks..hill behind my house is about 150' or so higher...ground still white (little melting all day). Flakes now are small...figure DGZ is barely saturated enough.
  10. TellicoWx
    Radar hasn't been showing anything here, so haven't looked outside since sundown. Light snow falling now, with dusting on elevated surfaces again.
  11. TellicoWx
    Light dusting on the deck with small flakes falling...temp down to 33
  12. TellicoWx
    Woke up to a surprise from MRX...added to the WWA (even tho I'm not quite sure of the logic behind the expansion). As far as winter weather headlines...added Monroe and the mountain zone of Polk County to the advisory for consistency with FFC as well as increased snow totals in those areas.
  13. TellicoWx
    And this evening's GEFS lucky bingo snowmaggedon lottery number is........G12. And thanks for playing everyone.
  14. TellicoWx
    18z GEFS mean
  15. TellicoWx
    Something interesting, my area (Tellico) usually does very poorly in NWSF events (Skyway is completely different story) due to the topography here (town almost sits in a bowl). MRX very rarely puts more than .5" on their maps for here due to this. So for them to go with 1"-2", it tells me they are currently expecting an unusually higher end NWSF event.
  16. TellicoWx
    Considering it's coming from MRX, The CMC, ECMWF, and some ensemble members suggest surface low pressure development in the Gulf and progression to our south and east Saturday into Sunday. If this occurs, the potential exists for widespread, and potentially impactful, snowfall accumulation across the area.
  17. TellicoWx
    GEFS #19 may have skewed the mean slightly lol
  18. TellicoWx
    Pic of the Cherokee National Forest above Tellico this afternoon
  19. TellicoWx
    0z GEFS doesn't agree with it..LA/C MS accum is from tonight..rest is the system during that time from..nice 2" mean back thru AL
  20. TellicoWx
    0z GFS still had the energy, just shoved it to Cuba
  21. TellicoWx
    0z HRRR (vs current reports/radar)....NWS Jackson, Ms had to expand their WSW..WWA expanded across N. MS as well..said speed of system was quicker than anticipated. Alot of sleet reports across N. Al
  22. TellicoWx
    As we get closer...modeling is slowly ticking upwards for southern middle TN/plateau..may squeeze out an inch from it. 0z RGEM picking up on the increase in moisture
  23. TellicoWx
    Considering it's 7 days out...fairly decent agreement at 500 with placement between GFS/CMC at 12/18z..Euro may be hanging the energy back in the SW..just something to watch.
  24. TellicoWx
    12z CMC had something as well during that timeframe
  25. TellicoWx
    Yeah..day 8/10 timeframe keeps popping up on various members last few runs. 18z GEFS had more variability among the members for that time roughly
×
×
  • Create New...