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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Euro folds to NAM
  2. TellicoWx
    00z GFS shifts south along the FL/AL line with the energy..taking the dynamics with it vs 18z
  3. TellicoWx
    Doesnt it have a cold bias (could be wrong)..jw if it is keying on the HP too much.
  4. TellicoWx
    I could see HUN doing something (possibly BNA), but until (or if) the Euro lowers the surface temps I dont see MRX pulling the trigger. SPS yes, Watch no.
  5. TellicoWx
    Would like to see the RGEM come on board (with anything really lol)..its pretty much the last one left that squishes the 925 energy, keeping it a strung out mess
  6. TellicoWx
    It's not an expansion of the precip shield as much as it is the path the 925 energy takes to our south. The circles area is the energy on the 00z NAM..as it crosses from MS into AL/GA line, it then transfers off the SE Carolina coast. Starting with the 18z (now 00z), the NAM has ticked slightly south with its path before transfer..taking the moisture return and dynamics to closer along the TN border. GFS is very similar to the NAM, while the 18z Euro took a big step in that direction (it would have looked very similar on snow output but it is about 4-6 degrees warmer right at the surface). How that piece treks south of us, will determine the haves and have nots.
  7. TellicoWx
    00z NAM sounding is almost a mirror image of the sounding last week...would be some nice big wet flakes.
  8. TellicoWx
    Yeah it is..the 925 was a tick further south (but by just 10 mi or so. If NAM is to be believed..10 mi could make a big difference on the cutoff.
  9. TellicoWx
    With the last system it handled the temp profile the best..showed the problems on the road for Chatt vs the other modeling.
  10. TellicoWx
    00z NAM with basically same track with the energy...stronger returns along the southern TN border vs 18z.
  11. TellicoWx
    Looking at the meteograms for the 18z Euro, while the qpf output went up, the surface temps in the eastern valley are a mess...35-40 during the duration of the precip.
  12. TellicoWx
    SREF..kind of like the ensemble of the NAM. Ran in between the NAM runs, usually a good indicator of where the next upcoming NAM run may go. Currently, the Weather Research and Forecasting Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) model is run as the NAM, thus, three names (NAM, WRF, or NMM) typically refer to the same model output. The WRF replaced the Eta model on June 13, 2006.[1] The model is run four times a day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) out to 84 hours. It is currently run with 12 km horizontal resolution and with three-hour temporal resolution, providing finer detail than other operational forecast models. The NAM ensemble is known as the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and runs out 87 hours.
  13. TellicoWx
    Haven't got to look at the 18z Euro, but from Webbs reaction sounds good.
  14. TellicoWx
    18z GFS looks very similar as far as track with the 925 energy vs 18z NAM (just slightly weaker)...not quite buying the Chatt snowhole with that setup.
  15. TellicoWx
    18z NAM quicker and stronger with the 925 transfer from AL to the coast vs 12z...really rooting for you guys.
  16. TellicoWx
    18z NAM
  17. TellicoWx
    18z NAM slightly shifted the 925 track south (12z thru Montgomery AL...18z 30mi south of Montgomery) which shifted the heaviest totals south of 40. Good run and probably best track along southern TN border (not too far north to mess with temp profile, but still keep the better dynamics across TN. Also deepens the energy quicker as it transfers off the SE coast (great for NC folks and possibly NE TN if it can wrap the moisture over the mountains).
  18. TellicoWx
    The handling of the 925 energy is key...12z NAM has the piece slightly quicker and the furthest north on guidance (along central AL/MS line)..12z Euro is furthest south (along the central LA coastline). GFS is the middle ground, really dont won't that piece going any further north on the NAM..especially anyone south of 40. 12z NAM/Euro:
  19. TellicoWx
    NAM starts bringing th moisture across the southern TN border between the 6z and 9z (closer to 8z = 3am...12z is 7am). GFS is slower closer to 11z-12z (6-7am). Yeah it's a daytime event for TN.
  20. TellicoWx
    NAM trend (GFS definitely stepping toward it)
  21. TellicoWx
    Normally I would say the NAM is just out to lunch, but you can see in the upper air pattern how the globals are trying to follow it by not squishing the energy. So it adds more weight to what the NAM is showing than usual. GFS trend:
  22. TellicoWx
    Sounding on the 12z NAM is razor thin at the surface for areas south of 40, around 34-35 at the surface. Any more ticks N or stronger with the 850 and it will become an issue possibly.
  23. TellicoWx
  24. TellicoWx
    Incoming Namming on the 12z lol
  25. TellicoWx
    If you trend the NAM, ICON, etc back, the westward trend each run on the modeling (with the SLP) is there.
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