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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it absolutely had an impact IMO
  2. brooklynwx99
    also it's not like it doesn't get cold... just delayed by a day, pretty typical medium range errors when phasing is involved
  3. brooklynwx99
    the IO forcing is pretty handily running the show, though. i don't think the two are really related... there isn't some permanent Nina background state, we've just had a bunch of them recently
  4. brooklynwx99
    much better WB -NAO blocking showing up due to the stronger phase of the Thanksgiving system. hopefully we see this continue
  5. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent
  6. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent
  7. brooklynwx99
    good overrunning look there. would be much more excited if it was a month later
  8. brooklynwx99
    shit is so annoying lmao
  9. brooklynwx99
    and you need multiple trimonthlies for a super Nino… really for any category of event
  10. brooklynwx99
    this should be a temporary spike… there doesn’t appear to be another WWB that will sustain the warmth. so i could see a week or so of values over 2C, but a monthly period will be tough to do. let alone a trimonthly period
  11. brooklynwx99
    still gets many on the board regardless, but it is a strong outlier
  12. brooklynwx99
    this is hilarious
  13. brooklynwx99
    i’ll never forget when he was posting about the above average temps for the following week during the Jan 2022 blizzard. told me all i need to know lmao
  14. brooklynwx99
    i don’t know how some are seeing that massive bullseye of warmth near the dateline and are calling this a canonical EP Nino that is not typical, and it’s definitely helping lean the forcing west
  15. brooklynwx99
    i think we just had one really shit winter and people kinda forgot that it can get significantly cold. the west has just had its run lately
  16. brooklynwx99
    you realize this month has been solidly below normal, right? i don’t think any stars have aligned… seems like a normal cold pattern Boston is -2.5 MTD and has had four -9 days compared to one +10 day. going to have more sig cold days coming up as well
  17. brooklynwx99
    why would the Aleutian low be placed farther east than even the canonical super events when 1) this likely won’t have the same magnitude of strength even with raw ONI 2) forcing has been well west, and will continue to stay west for the foreseeable future he has lost his damn mind. he is basically just saying shit at this point
  18. brooklynwx99
    yeah, probably. we could still see a decent event into NE (especially interior and north) through the end of the month before things moderate into early December the tropical forcing we're seeing now will pay dividends once we get later into winter, though
  19. brooklynwx99
    are you referring to like after the 26th or so? because it looks frigid for this time of year for Thanksgiving and the next couple of days that follow
  20. brooklynwx99
    seems like it's cooling the EP and warming the WP to me
  21. brooklynwx99
    if we were going to get on the board early, this would be the pattern to do it with
  22. brooklynwx99
    might as well try to start off hot going into December
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah this EPO ridge is pretty wild
  24. brooklynwx99
    i think the issue with the 12z is that the TPV ends up phasing with the vort and shoots it through the lakes... that'll happen in a pattern like this from time to time but then it reloads. seeing a -EPO cutoff high like that is nice
  25. brooklynwx99
    and then we see what the trailing wave does. if it's going to snow early, this is how you do it. what a sick pattern
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