brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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yeah this isn't a scenario where a good December means that the Nino isn't taking hold... most Ninos that start well also end well. 2002 and 2009 are good examples
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not that i know of, but 200mb and 500mb are correlated well enough that it would pretty much look the same
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looks great to me. but Pac puke!!!!!
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this is conveniently left out for some reason. I was told by someone that the forcing can't be used month to month because of sub-monthly variability lmao there is no convincing anyone of these differences at this point
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no, no, this is obviously a classical, canonical, and even prototypical EP super Nino that is going to behave completely normally
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also, given that the -PDO may be messing with the MEI, the RONI is still about half a degree weaker than the ONI, and it's simpler and doesn't take as much into account. this event still isn't really acting like it should and that's ignoring the western lean to the forcing that we've seen for months. not sure why that's being conveniently ignored by a lot of people
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i ask what he's talking about but he probably can't post again today. lmao
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if this is "flooding the US with Pacific air," i have a bridge to sell you. what are you even talking about? the Aleutian low is backed way west
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Raindance is above such silly indices as the RONI and MEI. we are just plebeians compared to his vast sea of atmospheric knowledge
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PAUL ROUNDY SUPER NINO
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it could be the IOD. not sure what else would do it 1986-87 did the same sort of thing. it also came after 3 consecutive cold ENSO events
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oh man. I'm still expecting the Nino to couple... not really worried there but the "MEI is bullshit and you're just a weenie if you don't think this is going to act like 1997" stuff is so dated. no way this acts like its full ONI strength
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2009 is a pretty good analog regardless
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again, I don't understand the issue of the SW trough for December. most stronger Ninos feature this -PNA/+NAO pattern, so it should not be surprising. it is likely going to be a warm month
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i agree. i also think that seasonal models underdo cold anomalies in areas where there is a persistent trough. even last year, which was warm as hell, was very cold in the western US, and seasonals missed it even though they got the mean 500mb pattern pretty much correct
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i think that we haven't seen a true Nino in 8 years and people are forgetting how they function. crappy starts to the season are the status quo and there is a lot of hand wringing for no particular reason. I don't expect to see any significant La Nina influence at all once we get into January and especially February... if this winter is going to fail, it would be due to an overwhelming GoA low, not some Aleutian ridge dropping a deep trough over the western US
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why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead
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what’s your point? there are categories between super and weak. they’re called moderate and strong! knowledge is power
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lmao
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that is literally the only reason
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there is some lingering forcing in the western IO that may be influencing things. either way, this pattern still looks quite similar to El Ninos in the past with the +EPO and +NAO
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my point is that what's happening in November isn't representative of the deep winter pattern December is likely going to be crappy and meltdowns will begin, I'm pretty sure of it. same shit happened in 2015 when everyone was crying before Boston got 100" in 6 weeks
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the +EPO/+NAO pattern on the EPS matches up with most mod-strong Ninos... the hand wringing about this being the winter pattern by some is pretty ridiculous as Nov/Dec are usually quite warm here
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base period is 1993-2016
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this looks quite similar to phase 1 forcing that you'd see in Ninos, though. also looks close to typical Ninos with the +EPO and +NAO. i don't see a correlation with Ninas here
