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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    okay, so let’s just throw every single piece of higher skill guidance out? that’s not how you’re supposed to forecast and the models have not been flip flopping. they are all in agreement on a strong west based -NAO block that is both strengthening and moving forward in time. even Webb has conceded in that regard
  2. brooklynwx99
    i agree with the boom/bust sentiment, and it seems like we’re leaning more boom than bust given the -NAO developing already
  3. brooklynwx99
    this event is already not really acting canonical given its strength. strong to super Ninos often feature strong +NAO patterns… that is likely not the case this month
  4. brooklynwx99
    AK ridging showing up later in the run. great pattern overall
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS is top tier with AK ridging popping up too
  6. brooklynwx99
    this is more like it
  7. brooklynwx99
    like i’m not sure what most of you want. this is a nearly ideal pattern. way more pros than cons
  8. brooklynwx99
    huh? this is a colder than average pattern with blocking. there’s always going to be Pacific air in a strong Nino
  9. brooklynwx99
    this looks good to me. the NPAC won’t be as much of an issue with Nino in place, +PNA and a SE trough is favored
  10. brooklynwx99
    that is a legit -NAO too. notice how the entire N Atl is blocked up through Europe
  11. brooklynwx99
    mint
  12. brooklynwx99
    my lord that is a legit -NAO too… notice how the N Atl is blocked up through Europe
  13. brooklynwx99
    that’s the point. El Niño Decembers that feature a -NAO often end up prolonging that blocking throughout the winter
  14. brooklynwx99
    we haven’t been in a strong Nino in 8 years. the minimizing of Phases 4-6 is similar to the phantom pushes through 7-8-1 during La Ninas
  15. brooklynwx99
    pretty much everything i’ve seen so far on LR guidance is highly auspicious… -NAO still remaining, which quickly puts on closer to the 2002/2009 winters rather than the crap ones like 1997 or 1972
  16. brooklynwx99
    dude flip flopped so hard
  17. brooklynwx99
    yeah once you’re into early December and you have blocking that anomalous you can pull off snow down to the MA. definitely a coastal pattern though
  18. brooklynwx99
    your concerns are overblown… there is a ridge out west here. nothing like last year with a trough digging into Baja CA. not sure what you’re referring to
  19. brooklynwx99
    what? this is up and in?
  20. brooklynwx99
    yup. one of the bigger things too is how much better the NPAC has looked, so when we do get blocking, it should be infinitely more effective
  21. brooklynwx99
    the MJO stuff is similar to when there are the phantom moves into 7/8 during a La Niña. this is another good sign
  22. brooklynwx99
    yeah. we’re just weenies thinking it could be any different i think this is the first big hit at that assertion
  23. brooklynwx99
    again… it honestly doesn’t really matter THAT much if this produces a big storm. just the fact that anomalous -NAO blocking is showing up is a big sign towards a good winter. the same thing happened in 2002/2009
  24. brooklynwx99
    hi all. figured it’s time to start a December thread given that ensembles are keying in on anomalous west-based -NAO blocking setting up during the first week of the month. we would like to see this signal strengthen over the coming week, but this is a highly conducive pattern. also notice how much better the NPAC and PNA region is compared to last year! god bless +ENSO. hopefully we can start off hot, which would likely set us up for a great winter historically looking at previous +ENSO winters that had blocky Decembers. happy Thanksgiving!
  25. brooklynwx99
    notice how much better the NPAC is compared to last year. god bless +ENSO
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