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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    again… it honestly doesn’t really matter THAT much if this produces a big storm. just the fact that anomalous -NAO blocking is showing up is a big sign towards a good winter. the same thing happened in 2002/2009
  2. brooklynwx99
    hi all. figured it’s time to start a December thread given that ensembles are keying in on anomalous west-based -NAO blocking setting up during the first week of the month. we would like to see this signal strengthen over the coming week, but this is a highly conducive pattern. also notice how much better the NPAC and PNA region is compared to last year! god bless +ENSO. hopefully we can start off hot, which would likely set us up for a great winter historically looking at previous +ENSO winters that had blocky Decembers. happy Thanksgiving!
  3. brooklynwx99
    notice how much better the NPAC is compared to last year. god bless +ENSO
  4. brooklynwx99
    pretty mint IMO
  5. brooklynwx99
    THIS is how to run a strong Nino December. -NAO gone wild
  6. brooklynwx99
    nice timeframe here with a WB -NAO and 50/50 ULL in place. can see a S/W working under the flow. as the GoA trough retrogrades a bit, then you get a transient +PNA
  7. brooklynwx99
    nice timeframe here with a WB -NAO and 50/50 ULL in place. can see a S/W working under the flow. as the GoA trough retrogrades a bit, then you get a transient +PNA
  8. brooklynwx99
    perhaps the speculation that this may, indeed, act like a Modoki event due to the WPAC warm pool might not be so ridiculous? we shall see
  9. brooklynwx99
    last year had a great December pattern. roll the dice with that look and you'll cash in 8/10 times... just didn't happen last year, what can you do
  10. brooklynwx99
    the fact that the -NAO is showing up at all is the important part. also, we shouldn't have a strong Nina SE ridge influence like we did last year
  11. brooklynwx99
    but! but! this is obviously acting like a canonical event! there could be a PDII redux in December and he would find a way to spin it
  12. brooklynwx99
    that's a run-over-run trend. these are the actual 500mb anomalies... the western trough is pretty common in Nino Decembers that move into Phase 3
  13. brooklynwx99
    one could make the case that 09-10 was strong as well... that winter topped out at +1.6C in NDJ
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it's not cold enough early (unless the GEPS -EPO is right), but seeing the -NAO and SPV perturbation both showing up over the last few days is highly encouraging it would be leading us on the 2002/2009 type track rather than the 1972/1982/1991/2015 track
  15. brooklynwx99
    if we get that -NAO, it bodes well for the rest of the winter. El Ninos with -NAO Decembers looked like this for Jan / Feb:
  16. brooklynwx99
    if we get that -NAO, it bodes well for the rest of the winter. El Ninos with -NAO Decembers looked like this for Jan / Feb:
  17. brooklynwx99
    EPS also making a shift towards much more medium range -NAO blocking
  18. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is also showing a WB -NAO... Pacific isn't great, but good to see the blocking showing up
  19. brooklynwx99
    it would be nice to have a well entrenched definition on this stuff, but it's different everywhere you look. quite annoying for these kinds of discussions I just don't want to see shit on twitter of people declaring this a super event after one monthly reading lmao
  20. brooklynwx99
    lmao I'm just saying that one trimonthly period isn't the actual accepted definition. that has nothing to do with any contest. just saying that when this will be officially classified, it will probably be done as a strong event. I'm not referring to the contest here or anything like that i still have a hard time believing that this even gets to a full trimonthly. maybe it squeaks one out at 2.0 but that's probably it
  21. brooklynwx99
    no, it's five consecutive months. this is the definition i've most commonly seen, but there isn't one that's the gold standard. NOAA classifies El Nino as five consecutive trimonthlies, though. 1997 and 2015 were over 2C for five straight trimonthlies
  22. brooklynwx99
    you know that these anomalies need to persist for months, right? there have to be five consecutive months over 2C for this event to be classified as super
  23. brooklynwx99
    looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time
  24. brooklynwx99
    looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time
  25. brooklynwx99
    yeah it looks like models are picking up on heat flux. would like to see this signal push into the medium range
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