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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the forcing gravitating towards the C Pac / western IO is very encouraging... those are the sweet spots. the shittier canonical EP Nino years had forcing in the E Pac, but that seems to get brushed off by the twitter geniuses
  2. brooklynwx99
    it does shift back to 8-1-2 once into mid-late month... colder weather then ensues, most likely. this is assuming the VP is correct
  3. brooklynwx99
    as the MJO cycles through phases 3 and 4, we'll see a relaxation in the pattern early-mid Dec... could get quite warm
  4. brooklynwx99
    that's literally where the Modoki events focus their forcing too. lmao
  5. brooklynwx99
    it can, but snows that rare are rare for a reason. you need a lottttt to go right
  6. brooklynwx99
    honestly, even with a perfect track and "cold" air relative to average, it would likely be too warm to amount to much of anything until like Dec 15th
  7. brooklynwx99
    heh
  8. brooklynwx99
    i mean, we’re probably going to see weak intrusions into 4 and 5 but as the Nino strengthens and couples further, 7-8-1-2 will be the main phases
  9. brooklynwx99
    really a very nice pattern heading into the last week of November. wish this was a month later but not much has changed... there should be some threats with this look
  10. brooklynwx99
    really a very nice pattern heading into the last week of November. wish this was a month later but not much has changed... there should be some threats with this look
  11. brooklynwx99
    indian ocean
  12. brooklynwx99
    i get that, but there is a strong El Nino ongoing with strong IO forcing. that should run the show. sure, will we get some periods where the forcing drifts into the MC? yes, but I don't think it'll be a consistent feature. the MJO should stay in 7-8-1-2 for the most part, pushing into 3 and 4 at times
  13. brooklynwx99
    if we had this pattern a month from now I'd be more excited, but it's still too early to see much unless there's a really anomalous setup
  14. brooklynwx99
    it absolutely had an impact IMO
  15. brooklynwx99
    also it's not like it doesn't get cold... just delayed by a day, pretty typical medium range errors when phasing is involved
  16. brooklynwx99
    the IO forcing is pretty handily running the show, though. i don't think the two are really related... there isn't some permanent Nina background state, we've just had a bunch of them recently
  17. brooklynwx99
    much better WB -NAO blocking showing up due to the stronger phase of the Thanksgiving system. hopefully we see this continue
  18. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent
  19. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent
  20. brooklynwx99
    good overrunning look there. would be much more excited if it was a month later
  21. brooklynwx99
    shit is so annoying lmao
  22. brooklynwx99
    and you need multiple trimonthlies for a super Nino… really for any category of event
  23. brooklynwx99
    this should be a temporary spike… there doesn’t appear to be another WWB that will sustain the warmth. so i could see a week or so of values over 2C, but a monthly period will be tough to do. let alone a trimonthly period
  24. brooklynwx99
    still gets many on the board regardless, but it is a strong outlier
  25. brooklynwx99
    this is hilarious
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