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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    guidance is largely following analog blends, which gives me more confidence in it the JMA is aggressive, but with how far west the VP has been, back the Aleutian low up and that's what you get
  2. brooklynwx99
    if the Nina lag plays a major role this winter, i am never long range forecasting ever again
  3. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn’t take this exact solution to heart. just get ready to see a good amount of cutters over the next month or so. that’s the Nino December M.O.
  4. brooklynwx99
    i doubt it. it’s probably getting back to near normal once we head into December, and then there is the chance for weakening. this is a temporary spike
  5. brooklynwx99
    i agree with that. it’s just that the main issue in stronger El Niños (if they do end up sucking) is that there are a lot of coastal storms with no cold air. that was 1997-98’s issue
  6. brooklynwx99
    for December yes, but i wouldn’t expect cutter patterns as we head later into winter
  7. brooklynwx99
    i think that’s kinda silly. i’m not sure how it would play out like that in actuality
  8. brooklynwx99
    i will say this… if December turns out good, it’s probably going to be a rocking winter 2002 and 2009 would immediately fit the bill if December produces
  9. brooklynwx99
    this was the hypothesis that a big block with Nino forcing would work a lot better. nice ridge over BC
  10. brooklynwx99
    holy shit lmao
  11. brooklynwx99
    the catch is that that is a Nino pattern features a trough in the west
  12. brooklynwx99
    like why does everything have to be so declarative? it makes no sense. it’s okay to not know what’s going to happen
  13. brooklynwx99
    inevitable? three consecutive trimonthly periods that average 2.0+? i wouldn’t consider that inevitable at all
  14. brooklynwx99
    C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run
  15. brooklynwx99
    C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run
  16. brooklynwx99
    i’m still not sure why people are so engrained in one camp. this is an event in a changing world and there’s something a bit off with all of the CC discussion and how it’s messing with everything, people vehemently insisting that this is a textbook event is kinda silly
  17. brooklynwx99
    C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run
  18. brooklynwx99
    i respectfully disagree. we haven’t had a legit Nino in years and those often force a SE trough regardless of the Pacific if we do get a strong -NAO this year, it will be much more effective than it was last year
  19. brooklynwx99
    then once the SPV is perturbed, that’s when you get the late Jan into Feb blocking accounting for lag
  20. brooklynwx99
    there is zero reason to believe we will have a dry winter
  21. brooklynwx99
    we could get the Goldilocks scenario where we get some Nina influence in December before Nino takes hold later in the winter I don't think it's a coincidence that 2002 and 2009 started off hot in December after following two or three Nina years. there has to be some lag in there
  22. brooklynwx99
    gotta love the pessimism on November 9th
  23. brooklynwx99
    a perturbed SPV would be great. SSWs can be tricky because you can have the main lobe move to Eurasia and screw us here. a perturbed vortex just makes blocking easier and more prolonged
  24. brooklynwx99
    blocking probably won't make an appearance in earnest until mid-Jan. the ECMWF has a pretty weak SPV into Dec which is nice, though
  25. brooklynwx99
    pretty good signal for SPV weakening into Dec
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