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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    looks like the OP was on the tucked side
  2. brooklynwx99
    6-8" on the mean for the EPS is a very strong signal. you don't see that very often outside of 5 days
  3. brooklynwx99
    yup. 6-8 on the mean for I-78 and north, good clustering. ECMWF OP was on the tucked side
  4. brooklynwx99
    pretty great
  5. brooklynwx99
    if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range
  6. brooklynwx99
    also the GEFS is fucking awesome
  7. brooklynwx99
    you should be in ensemble mode until like 48-72 hours out the signal for a potentially significant storm is still there. from like BOS to you guys. just use ensembles and keep your nerves lmao
  8. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is cranking up the confluence. love to see it
  9. brooklynwx99
    there’s a 1030mb Arctic high pressing in lmao cold air isn’t that much of an issue
  10. brooklynwx99
    if you are south of a 985mb low in this specific setup, you will snow
  11. brooklynwx99
    UKMET out to sea, ICON buries Virginia, GFS smokes NYC, CMC smokes you guys, and ECMWF got way colder pretty well defined idea of what this is going to do IMO
  12. brooklynwx99
    50/50 is wayyyy stronger. gets a good bit colder at the surface compared to 00z because of it
  13. brooklynwx99
    these changes help quite a bit, though. 50/50 is much stronger and heights out west are higher
  14. brooklynwx99
    he's not even talking about the right storm lmao
  15. brooklynwx99
    UKMET is the second highest scoring model. the GFS is the worst major model lmao still
  16. brooklynwx99
    phrasing lmao
  17. brooklynwx99
    you guys are going to be a hot mess if you lean on the OP runs this much. follow the ensembles. I wouldn't even say there's been a trend towards one solution or the other, we have another model cycle before anything like that can be said
  18. brooklynwx99
    i would not really focus on the ICON's thermals lmao
  19. brooklynwx99
    i think we've pretty much gone full Nino at this point
  20. brooklynwx99
    looks like the -NAO is caused by wave breaking from the cutter on the 10th
  21. brooklynwx99
    I would be more worried about suppression than an inland runner here. the trough crashing in the west argues for a more progressive outcome, if anything the 50/50 is in a good spot too. HP over the top, it's definitely worth watching. flawed, but can produce
  22. brooklynwx99
    yeah at this point, I think the 5th only serves to act as a 50/50 for the 7th. still need a phase there in some capacity
  23. brooklynwx99
    I would say that's a pretty convincing signal at this lead time
  24. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks good. stronger vort and better confluence. 250mb jet is more meridional as well
  25. brooklynwx99
    my god
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