brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run
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i’m still not sure why people are so engrained in one camp. this is an event in a changing world and there’s something a bit off with all of the CC discussion and how it’s messing with everything, people vehemently insisting that this is a textbook event is kinda silly
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C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run
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i respectfully disagree. we haven’t had a legit Nino in years and those often force a SE trough regardless of the Pacific if we do get a strong -NAO this year, it will be much more effective than it was last year
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then once the SPV is perturbed, that’s when you get the late Jan into Feb blocking accounting for lag
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there is zero reason to believe we will have a dry winter
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we could get the Goldilocks scenario where we get some Nina influence in December before Nino takes hold later in the winter I don't think it's a coincidence that 2002 and 2009 started off hot in December after following two or three Nina years. there has to be some lag in there
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gotta love the pessimism on November 9th
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a perturbed SPV would be great. SSWs can be tricky because you can have the main lobe move to Eurasia and screw us here. a perturbed vortex just makes blocking easier and more prolonged
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blocking probably won't make an appearance in earnest until mid-Jan. the ECMWF has a pretty weak SPV into Dec which is nice, though
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pretty good signal for SPV weakening into Dec
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yeah it won't be an abject torch with the propensity for AK ridging. i just think that most of the cold will be in the W US in December. if we get some blocking somehow, that's a different story. the weeklies are advertising a weak SPV so that may help
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honestly I'm fine with it... mod-strong ENSO Decembers are warm, so it's what should be expected anyway
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yeah that's getting shaken up over the next few weeks
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honestly that's just not going to happen later in the winter but it would be funny if it happened in December just to see the rage. i can see that happening in Dec
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some LR OP ragebait on a fine Thursday afternoon
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just going to post some LR OP ragebait
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so I've learned from many of the proponents of a strong-super canonical EP event that a one month VP mean isn't great because it doesn't take variability into account, but that a multi-month VP mean isn't good either because it smooths MJO pulses out so which one is it? might as well throw tropical forcing out the window as if it isn't one of the most important mechanisms for our weather lmao
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it's of similar strength to years like 2002 and 2009 when looking at Aug-Oct means. what's nice is that even accounting for month-to-month variability, this event just pales in comparison to the past Super Ninos and is much farther west
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this is what i mean when I said that there isn't convincing anyone at this point. there's nothing you can show to get people off the canonical super Nino bandwagon if they're already on it. sunk cost fallacy i guess
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I agree that one single month might not tell the whole story, but this event has behaved differently in that department for pretty much the entire late summer and fall. it isn't just one month. the differences over South America are especially glaring
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so triggered lmao
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nothing says “strongly coupled” like interfering factors that have mostly flipped
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@griteater would have something to say about the polar regions looking unfavorable I am seeing more evidence for blocking than not. moderate to strong +ENSO events favor blocking. then factor in the -QBO and solar and it's pretty heavily favored to see periods of blocking this winter
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ENSO is a bigger factor than the PDO. there are times where ENSO and the PDO are out of phase, and this year seems like a good candidate. the PDO can positively or negatively feed back on the PNA... a La Nina and -PDO will positively feed back and produce a persistent -PNA and vice versa. the -PDO likely negatively feeds back on El Nino this year, but +PNA is still favored overall also what's occurring now doesn't have much bearing on the winter. November 2009 had the TPV sitting over AK
