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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I would be more worried about suppression than an inland runner here. the trough crashing in the west argues for a more progressive outcome, if anything the 50/50 is in a good spot too. HP over the top, it's definitely worth watching. flawed, but can produce
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah at this point, I think the 5th only serves to act as a 50/50 for the 7th. still need a phase there in some capacity
  3. brooklynwx99
    I would say that's a pretty convincing signal at this lead time
  4. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks good. stronger vort and better confluence. 250mb jet is more meridional as well
  5. brooklynwx99
    my god
  6. brooklynwx99
    unbelievable stuff from Charles
  7. brooklynwx99
    not to hype, but that 50/50 is classic. this is a legit threat
  8. brooklynwx99
    not to hype, but that 50/50 is classic. this is a legit threat
  9. brooklynwx99
    EPS vort with GEFS confluence would be awesome
  10. brooklynwx99
    nice changes on the 18z EPS. stronger vort AND stronger confluence. probably remains as strong, but gets a tick colder if I had to take a guess wave spacing in the Pacific is a bit better too
  11. brooklynwx99
    stronger 50/50 and a lot colder, though. I think the changes were good overall
  12. brooklynwx99
    yup. it wasn't there a couple of days ago, but if it is real, it's a game changer and makes this threat viable. helps lock in confluence and a cold HP in SE Canada. SFC temps are not a problem as a result. we need to see this maintain on ensembles
  13. brooklynwx99
    i will say this. if this 50/50 is real, it is game on. that feature is a game changer and forces the vort under the block while locking in HP in a perfect spot in SE Canada
  14. brooklynwx99
    there has to be phasing with some of those EPS members, no? i find it hard to believe you could get sub-985mb members with just the southern stream
  15. brooklynwx99
    a 2 sigma block at 12 days out is a serious signal. hope we can see this hold… this is the kind of block that can take over a pattern
  16. brooklynwx99
    now THIS is nice
  17. brooklynwx99
    gotta take your chances with amped lows here. weak sauce won’t work
  18. brooklynwx99
    959 LOL there has to be phasing with some of these. only way these lows can get that deep
  19. brooklynwx99
    EPS is way more amped
  20. brooklynwx99
    people are really just saying shit at this point. and using extended weekly control members to make proclamations about the pattern. wild times we live in
  21. brooklynwx99
    what
  22. brooklynwx99
    pretty significant trend to increase blocking and a subsequent 50/50 ULL. this changes the entire synoptic setup and makes a colder coastal storm with legit confluence more likely. need to see the ensembles pick up on this
  23. brooklynwx99
    that’s likely a transient pattern though. i wouldn’t expect that to stick around like that for more than a week as the Aleutian Low develops
  24. brooklynwx99
    agreed, although the 7th is low probability it’s still worth the most focus
  25. brooklynwx99
    the meat of your guy’s season (and really anyone south of NYC) is like Jan 20 through Feb 20. anything before that in a strong Nino is gravy. you guys can hit your averages in 48 hours different story if you’re in New England
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