brooklynwx99

i think "reductive" is the word you're looking for. been seeing a lot of that kind of thinking this year with ENSO

I would imagine that since this year will have much more impressive tropical forcing, it should be able to pick up on the pattern better. but yes, seasonal models aren't the best. the November runs really should be quite good, though. tough to get a seasonal to totally flop that close in when the coupling is really beginning to kick in most of the time

I don't think we're going to deal with a lack of coupling here... the forcing is already much stronger than it was in 2018. 2018 isn't like this year whatsoever in terms of tropical forcing. this year is more like 2002 and 2009 so far

I think the 30" storm is still meaningful... a HECS is a HECS, no matter when

2018-19 had 20" and 2021-22 had 18"... below average, but not by much. 2020-21 had near 40", and then two duds in 19-20 and 22-23. that averages out to 17", which is definitely below normal but it's nothing that hasn't happened before 1997-98 to 2001-02 averaged 15", 1986-87 to 1991-92 averaged 17", and even a stretch in the 1930s from 1926-27 to 1931-32 averaged 13.5!" so yeah, it's been a quiet stretch, but this has happened before, and we've also come out of the most prolific stretch of winters in history from 2002-03 through 2020-21. people just got spoiled and forget how it is sometimes

also, Oct-Nov of all moderate to super Ninos since 1980 have had a strong signal for a trough digging into the SW US and no blocking to speak of. so save the pessimism for now

2009-10 would have still been a blockbuster winter lmao that early Feb stretch would have been up here instead of in DC one bad winter last year and everyone is losing their damn minds. it's a shame

it's interesting that even though this is a pretty typical EP Nino in terms of SSTs from like 120W eastward, it seems like the forcing the models are spitting out still resembles those of Modoki winters. it seems like the farther west forcing has some credence, as it's hung back farther west thus far this month it also seems like there is a good bit of misunderstanding that I've seen both here and on Twitter... this is a typical EP Nino in terms of SSTs. however, given how warm the WPAC is, it seems like this event is less coupled with the forcing ending up farther west, leading to bouts of Modoki forcing at times even with a basin-wide SST signature. not sure why it has to be all-or-nothing. nuance exists, and it seems like modeling is picking up on something that says that this won't act like a typical high-end EP event

but i digress. there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about this winter

taking out the most prolific winters in an area that has higher variance doesn’t really work. you’re bound to be below average then

super favorable pattern without results for most TWICE that winter… i am confident that if we see blocking of that scale in a Nino, someone on the EC is getting crushed. no worries about a persistent SE ridge this time

also in a strong event like this, the SW US and southern Rockies would get hammered, potentially along with the S Apps. that output doesn't make any sense

2002-03, 2012-13, and 2014-15, and 2015-16 were the top 4 least snowy winters according to this model. two of those (2002 and 2014) were prolific across the board, and all four of those winters had KUs

pretty damn good job by the CanSIPS honestly

it's likely a mixture of both this time. the 2000-10s aren't really that far away, and those were prolific

yeah, I wouldn't call that kind of pattern legit cold, but I would imagine polar air is getting displaced into the CONUS. def not a torchy pattern i think part of the reason why it looks zonal is due to differences in how the models displace the cold... but there's no way to know unless you look at indies

it wouldn't be that warm with this kind of pattern in place. i find that hard to believe with all the high latitude ridging

nothing quite says "torch" like a -EPO/-NAO ridge bridge. bring on the heat!

least snowy years include 2002-03, 2012-13. and 2014-15. LMAO

that output doesn't even make sense. the SW US would get crushed given how strong the STJ is. even in strong-super Ninos

you honestly think we rise 0.5C in 18 days? based on a run of the mill WWB?

in terms of winters, there is also a major difference between strong and super Ninos. strong ones can still be favorable while super is often a killer. we should just remain at strong, regardless of factors like MEI

these models are still likely suffering from excessive momentum. I think a trimonthly peak in the +1.6-1.9C range is most reasonable at this point

I do expect Nov/Dec to be quite warm... most Ninos are toasty in Dec, which can skew the DJF departures warm

the PDO isn't always in sync with the PNA; IMO it serves to feed back on the ENSO state. for example, a Nina/-PDO is lights out bad because the ENSO configuration usually forces an Aleutian ridge and -PNA that reinforces the -PDO. it's usually the other way around with a +ENSO/+PDO on the other hand, the strong Nino in place should lead to a general +PNA throughout the winter on average, which should continue to erode the -PDO. we should see the PDO rise as we end the month with the persistent +PNA/-EPO in place... that will warm waters up on the west coast