brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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also, a warm Canada doesn't mean that it can't be cold here. it's a silly argument. +10 up there can be -5 down here... the GEFS shows that well. this is often the case in El Nino winters. Feb 2010 is actually a glaring example. Canada was absolutely blowtorched and BWI got 50" that month
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idk man, does this not look like a massive change? the pattern is fundamentally different in the Pacific. you go from an AK trough regime into a AK ridge regime
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yeah, can’t complain at all. good pattern and cold pretty much everywhere to boot
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how the fuck is January 1-4 mid-month? what is going on in here. do we need to redefine dates? @qg_omegaone of those is literally for Dec 28-Jan 2. explain to me how that isn’t around the end of December
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that’s bullshit
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yeah… like around the 30-31st and into the new year. that is the end of the month. like the last couple days
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pattern still looks good towards the end of the month. don’t really see any cause for angst from any of this
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lmao getting weenied for nothing. absolute man children
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i don’t think people realize that when you LR forecast, you are going to be wrong more than you’re right. just the way it is a lot of the people that troll don’t even really make any calls, either. they just bump troll regardless the change to a better pattern is still moving up in time. don’t really see any changes there
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quote where i said that setup for late month looked favorable for snow. that setup has been warm for a while now
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yup, the anomalous ridge over central Canada forces confluence and leads to cold air crashing in. a rare setup, but it's viable if the GFS is correct with the amplitude. my bet is no, but it's worth watching for sure with an amped pattern like that better chances likely come afterwards
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it's moving up in time and the jet is going to retract. it seems legit
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might be able to pop some confluence out ahead of the S/W like the 18z GFS OP does. would make sense given that HP is favored downstream of a ridge like that afterwards, the GEFS seems to have pretty much caved to the EPS in the longer range. -EPO, neutral NAO, temps are cold enough, and there's also split flow. nice pattern there
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i mean, this is a gorgeous look on the GEFS still. strong ridge into northern Canada, -EPO forming, NAO trending neutral, and split flow. very active and more than cold enough
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that's not Pacific air. the source region is out of northern Canada
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just for funsies, this is heading into Feb. god damn
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that split flow, -EPO, and BN heights near the 50/50 region is drool worthy
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the temp anomalies in Canada are a bit overrated IMO. look at Feb 2022. Canada was an icebox, but it didn't matter because the 500mb pattern sucked and the mean storm track was to the west. I would much rather have an above normal Canada if the 500mb pattern leads to coastal storms
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based on how strongly you feel about the lack of Arctic air in Canada, yes, I would believe that you'd find it harder for us to snow. I don't think that's a stretch
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also that's a bit of a strawman. who is advocating for Arctic cold? I haven't seen anyone say that
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we don't need Arctic air to snow... you just need near normal, and ensembles have us near or below normal by the end of the month. Canada can be +10 and it doesn't really matter for our intents and purposes down here
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luckily I think the "winning again" looks like it'll occur around the end of the month. ENS are keying in on a nice pattern as the jet retracts
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really nice trend with the Pacific jet too. less oppressive and is leading to more ridging into western Canada
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yeah, but the point that @ORH_wxman is trying to make is that that's not how persistence forecasting even really works persistence forecasting implies that the pattern is persistent. the persistence isn't coming from a lack of snow (or wealth of snow)
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yes. 8 or 9 times out of 10 you get something with this kind of pattern. got unlucky
