brooklynwx99

the STJ goes under the +PNA ridge, hence the split flow. you absolutely can sustain a +PNA with an active STJ as long as the Aleutian low isn't too far east and also, 2015 had the typical cooler than normal WPAC compared to the warmer than normal one that we're seeing now. so yes, it makes sense that it has forcing that's farther west than it was in 2015-16

for the largest EC storms, there is a -PNA on the mean about a week beforehand along with intense Greenland blocking. it’s just not so strong that it overwhelms the pattern

yes, a direct impact can’t be ruled out. no way to do that at this range however, based on the pattern that is now being modeled, a direct impact looks unlikely at best. that can change, but that seems to be the deal right now

if talking how about a winter pattern evolves and honking about a hurricane that likely misses 200 miles offshore are the same, I do not know what to tell you

saying there's a chance at a legit landfall at this range is like saying there's a shot at a day 10 KU with a +AO and a SE ridge

this is part of the transition to a basin-wide event rather than the east-based event that we've had all summer. models have been showing this consistently

Comparing a pre-loading composite of all recent EC landfalls to the current pattern, I think that the risk for a landfall is unlikely outside of Nova Scotia. Looking at the pattern from a week out until landfall, we see an amplified trough digging into the Plains that leads to a strong blocking high forming just NE of Maine. This is not the case here.\ There is a weak, progressive trough that moves into the OH Valley that doesn't serve to establish a blocking high at all. In fact, the strongest positive anomalies are north of the Great Lakes. The rather zonal flow over Nova Scotia is probably why this storm is going to escape east... without that strong blocking high the landfall scenario looks unlikely without a large change in the pattern. Even a capture scenario would be possible if the trough dug more, but the pattern just doesn't look amplified enough. The EPS is more what you'd want to see for an EC landfall with higher positive anomalies over SE Canada and a bit more digging with the trough over the E US, but even then it's far from ideal.

The EPS is more what you'd want to see for an EC landfall with higher positive anomalies over SE Canada and a bit more digging with the trough over the E US, but even then it's far from ideal

Comparing a pre-loading composite of all recent EC landfalls to the current pattern, I think that the risk for a landfall is unlikely outside of Nova Scotia. Looking at the pattern from a week out until landfall, we see an amplified trough digging into the Plains that leads to a strong blocking high forming just NE of Maine. This is not the case here. There is a weak, progressive trough that moves into the OH Valley that doesn't serve to establish a blocking high at all. In fact, the strongest positive anomalies are north of the Great Lakes. The rather zonal flow over Nova Scotia is probably why this storm is going to escape east... without that strong blocking high the landfall scenario looks unlikely without a large change in the pattern. Even a capture scenario would be possible if the trough dug more, but the pattern just doesn't look amplified enough.

wasn’t there west leaning forcing that led to the highly favorable month-long stretch from mid Jan into Feb? I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence

for much of coastal NE south of Boston I would say so

most winters only have 3-6 weeks of legit activity

I expect December to be pretty awful nobody can really talk after the 2014-15 fiasco with weenie suicides abound in mid-Jan before Boston got 100" of snow in like 6 weeks

new ONI at +1.1 for JJA, but the relative ONI is only +0.57, which is a difference of over half a degree! so although this has breached moderate territory, this is still acting more like a weak event... encouraging for winter

new ONI at +1.1 for JJA, but the relative ONI is only +0.57, which is a difference of over half a degree! so although this has breached moderate territory, this is still acting more like a weak event... encouraging for winter

if we see like OND at 1.8, NDJ at 1.9, and DJF at 1.7, we average +1.8 ONI and a MEI of like +1.3-1.5. sounds good to me this is almost certainly why the models are showing a moderate Nino with west-leaning forcing pattern rather than a canonical super Nino pattern

ONI for JJA is officially +1.1, so we have cracked moderate territory for now... will need to see the two next readings, but a moderate is certain however, the RONI is only +0.57! this is a 0.53 degree difference, which is significant. the MEI will also likely lag around there, meaning that this event is still behaving like a low-end weak event https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

that's because Dec skews Jan/Feb warm, which are normal to slightly below normal also, seasonals are almost always too warm overall. it's rare to ever see solidly below average temps in the CONUS look at the CanSIPS for last year... it got the warmth in the E US right, but it was way too warm in the W US

I think this is part of the reason why the seasonals are showing what they're showing

look, I think this can end up as a very low end super Nino, but there just isn't much in the way of tropical forcing or WWBs that'll keep it going as of now. I can see things stagnating as we head through the month

I'm not acting like a dick at all. stop projecting where did I even spike the ball? you don't think "Paul Roundy told me" is at least a little bit funny? like come on. if someone came in here and said that JB told them it would be a cold and snowy winter you'd be foaming at the mouth and biting down on your keyboard talking about how vapid and asinine the person is lmao

Paul Roundy super Nino

new ECMWF seasonal looks like the CanSIPS. strong blocking with split flow after a mild December

I'm still good with 1.7-1.9 on the trimonthly ONI with the MEI likely peaking at like 1.4-1.6

seems like we're coming to a consensus on the Nino strength here as the ECMWF significantly weakened the peak