brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the only issue is that with these kinds of winters with a generally susceptible -NAO state, they can just kind of pop up in the medium to semi-long range. that's what happened with the blocking spell early in the month. nothing really sniffed it out if we are seeing a legit anomalous, long lasting -NAO brought on by Scandi ridging, it is probably very legit and we could get smoked. but that's speculation, of course. a SSW could help that occur, though
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luckily, I don't think we'll really have to worry about the NAO. would be different if we had a death star SPV, but it's weak, and we have already had spells of blocking this fall and earlier in the month. i highly doubt the NAO domain remains like that for too long, let alone for the rest of the winter
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OP runs have been keying in on a wave break into central Canada. this would be a much more interesting look if it retrogrades into NW Canada or Greenland like it has over the last few runs
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new GFS runs showing much more of a wave break into central Canada that retrogrades into NW Canada. this would have a pretty big impact on the pattern during the holiday week... we'll see if this can remain consistent over the coming days
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sorry but LOL
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i wouldn’t worry. i haven’t seen any reason why this year won’t deliver. if we’re in the same spot in a month with crap on the horizon for 10 days, then it’s time to worry
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nah, draw the OP out at least and you’d get a ridge bridge into AK going. wave breaks lead to weird stuff. not confident on anything like that and we probably do have to wait until Jan, but things can get interesting when you have the STJ undercutting like that
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you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP
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blocking is pretty essential in Ninos and the models usually miss it at range unless it’s a classic pig retrograding Scandi ridge. the STJ undercutting Canadian blocking/ridging is usually how you score. they aren’t Arctic cold patterns, but they work
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you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP
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if the Arctic is that unfavorable for the entire back half of winter, i will be absolutely shocked
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don’t even bother lmao it’s disingenuous
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i don’t know why they decided to run those every day. they’re just going to drive people nuts considering they’ll waffle around
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i would be shocked if we had a Pacific onslaught for the whole winter like 1997. analogs and seasonals strongly suggest otherwise. also factor in the weak SPV
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2015 always checked out. a weaker, colder version of that winter would be pretty damn good
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they aren't far out enough to see any significant blocking that would result from any kind of SSW. that would wait until late Jan and I don't think anything really goes out that far. the Pacific should improve handily once into the first or second week of Jan also, Ninos often have in-situ blocking from wave breaks that extended guidance has no chance of picking up on. that's how we got that first blocking spell earlier this month
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that isn't what i said. the jet retraction should allow for a more favorable pattern into early-mid Jan
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seems to be a slower progression. modeling underdid how strong the Pacific jet would get since they underestimated the +EAMT event. they corrected, and they still look good once the jet retracts. it's just backed up a bit. wouldn't worry too much about it also, given how weak the SPV is going to get (could even see a SSW), we should see more blocking, especially late Jan into Feb
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i don't think that's it's needed per se, but it would definitely help set the stage for a very blocky February. I think the jet retraction is the main catalyst for a more favorable Jan pattern and the main blocking spell coincides with the SPV shenanigans heading into Feb
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if we get a SSW (which is a legit possibility) then it could seriously be hammer time for February. but we will see about that
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i would be shocked if there wasn't a change to a more favorable pattern. analogs and seasonals have been screaming for it since the summer. combine that with the weak SPV and previous -NAO spell and there's a good case for it
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the jet has retracted pretty handily by this point, which is nice to see
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also good job @Allsnow and @bluewave for your skepticism. I still think we'll enter a favorable pattern once into Jan (probably around the 10th if I had to guess?) and especially Feb, but the Nino is really flexing its muscles right now. pretty par for the course with strong Nino Decembers, though
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there is a pretty good shot we move to d) later this winter, though. just gotta be patient
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i mean, it is. the jet extends due to a +EAMT that leads to an easterly PGF (and winds). the Pacific jet counteracts that EAMT to conserve momentum. it's not going to remain extended like that forever. it's a temporary solution to a physics problem, basically
