brooklynwx99

the synoptic pattern wasn't good enough for this to be a true EC landfall, which was apparent a while ago. it's a bit better than it originally looked, but still not good enough you want that Atlantic ridge farther west or that trough deeper and farther east. too little, too late

the ECMWF is still the best and I lean on it the most when it comes to medium range forecasting, but the gap has closed. I'd still say that the EPS is the highest skill model, but you have to take other pieces of guidance into account more so now

the magnitude of the warm anomalies and the forecasted placement of forcing near the dateline. everything still looks very nino-esque as autumn progresses

forcing from ENSO peaks in January through February, though... Nov/Dec aren't representative of a typical ENSO state this is why you cash in with Ninas early but you have to wait for Ninos

it's going to couple, I am not concerned about that at all. this is nothing like 2018-19

I highly, highly doubt that this Nino won't couple. this is not like 2018-19, and modeling is gung-ho on typical Nino forcing there is also no way this winter will be as bad as last winter... it broke records for how bad it was. not happening

C3S forcing is basically a carbon copy of the moderate Modoki winters of 2009, 2002, and 1986. don't shoot the messenger

I'm more and more convinced that this will act more like a moderate event at this point. almost no chance the MEI from this event rivals those of 1982, 1997, and 2016

ECMWF is east of 00z

NMME has the typical backloaded winter with a warm Dec and very favorable Feb/Mar it’s worth nothing that the CFS has higher weight in this ensemble, and it is easily the warmest of the seasonals. regardless, still looks great overall

the shift towards a basin-wide event continues. seasonals have nailed that evolution

the thing is that per MEI, the atmospheric response has never mimicked any of the last super Ninos at any point in the spring or summer. there has never been a strong WWB in the western Pacific either, as all of those years had although ONI is moderate to near strong, this is still acting like a weak event (likely acting like a moderate to low-end strong one for the winter) and the models are showing that. it's not that far-farfetched once you throw out the raw ONI and look at how things are actually behaving

there is pretty much no way this will act like a canonical super Nino at this point. that ship seems to be sailing away by the week

the new MEI for Jul-Aug is only +0.4! no wonder the seasonal guidance is showing a pattern that's more associated with a moderate event https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ I expect the MEI to peak somewhere in the +1.0-1.5 range at this point, probably by Nov-Dec. it'll be enough to couple... a winter like 2018-19 is the least of my concerns right now

wow is right. I'm hoping it has the right idea

I mean, these are my JFM analogs... like it's very similar. slightly more assertive Aleutian low in mine since 1972, 1982, and 2016 are factored in there, but the main gist is there. back the Aleutian low up a tad and it's the same also my analogs are based on ONI/MEI, PDO, QBO, and summer 500mb/SST similarity. the models do not get factored into my forecast whatsoever

the plot that griteater posted is the DJF mean

the fact that the seasonal models are similar to the analog blend my colleagues and I worked out gives them a bit more credence IMO

they usually get the flavor of the season right at this point

and the whole "well, every single model must be wrong!" thing is a bit rich. there's a reason why they're showing what they're showing, it's not based on nothing

these are the same to you? because they're very different and yes, I know they're seasonal models and all, but that's what we're talking about. these are two completely different patterns in the Pacific

the STJ goes under the +PNA ridge, hence the split flow. you absolutely can sustain a +PNA with an active STJ as long as the Aleutian low isn't too far east and also, 2015 had the typical cooler than normal WPAC compared to the warmer than normal one that we're seeing now. so yes, it makes sense that it has forcing that's farther west than it was in 2015-16

for the largest EC storms, there is a -PNA on the mean about a week beforehand along with intense Greenland blocking. it’s just not so strong that it overwhelms the pattern

yes, a direct impact can’t be ruled out. no way to do that at this range however, based on the pattern that is now being modeled, a direct impact looks unlikely at best. that can change, but that seems to be the deal right now