brooklynwx99

looks like this is becoming a basin-wide Nino as the models have projected. all seems to be on track there

that wasn’t an attack whatsoever. i am skeptical about the climate models, but I believe that the evidence is mounting for a good end to the winter after a slow start I can see everyone getting pretty much blanked through Jan 10-20, then the floodgates may open. we shall see

imagine if almost all modeling looked like garbage like last winter and you had people like “well maybe all the models are just wrong and we’ll have really favorable forcing!” they’d be shit on and rightfully so. not sure why it’s ok the other way around

also, you can give the climate models grief, but they usually get the general flavor of the winter right. it would be a complete modeling failure for them to totally bomb it

this is a silly post. there are reasons for it to lean to the west that have been discussed ad nauseum your point is just “well the models could all be totally wrong because i said so” which doesn’t hold that much water

December has a good chance of being legitimately awful IMO

i don’t know. sure, if the WPAC was cooler than normal and the forcing was at a normal spot, but I would be resigned to the torch train however, those two major factors are wholly different. not sure how we can apply “classic” analogs and ENSO states when things are anything but classic

yeah, the models looked like dog shit all summer for last winter. what about this Nino is going to be east based going into the winter? models have the forcing far west… it already is now. the SSTs are also going to become basin wide. what about that screams east based?

you’re being a bit reductive there’s nuance with all of this stuff

+4 Dec, near normal Jan and -2 Feb with blocking and a potent STJ paired with split flow would absolutely work though

it’s already been shown so far that the WPAC warm pool is weakening the coupling of the Nino… that is pretty much certain. a don’t think a 2.0C nino would behave like a classic one. why would it? we’re in a new climate

a blowtorch winter is absolutely not a reasonable expectation. what is showing that besides the CFS? if the models are correct with the forcing, near normal is a better bet, unless you’re in far northern NE

it wouldn’t be La Niña forcing though, it would be bouts of basin wide to west based Nino forcing. it’s not that ridiculous when the WPAC is at warm as it is the same boiling WPAC kept the MJO pinned farther west for 2021 and 2022, so this is probably what the modeling is hinting at

honestly those temp and snowfall maps aren’t that unreasonable for late Jan into March. early season might skew it warmer though

the record breaking rain is also from a highly anomalous track from a major tropical system. not sure how a seasonal model is supposed to pick up on something like that

I'm not sure how many times I have said that 1972 and 1982 are legit analogs while ALSO stating that those Modoki years might be worth considering, as the WPAC warm pool both diminishes the coupling of the Nino and shifts forcing west. nobody is sure that this winter will be severe... nobody has even said that besides known Twitter hacks like JB it's really not that ridiculous of a concept. in fact, I would say that it's more ridiculous than postulating that pretty much every single piece of seasonal guidance is dead wrong and that we're just going to see a classic EP Nino. like, just because of raw ONI without taking anything else into consideration, like solar, QBO, and how the rest of the Pacific is influencing ENSO nobody really knows what's going to happen... we've never been in this climate before with a WPAC that hot and a developing strong Nino. the declarative statements are ridiculous and this may be a year where thinking outside the box is helpful. just a thought

nah, tropical forcing is a crutch that weenies use to forecast because they're sad that it might torch in December. we should know better than that

if the queen had balls...

also just keep in mind that I'm really not that biased when it comes to seasonal forecasting. I was down on last winter as a whole from the get-go aside from some possible December blocking (which did occur). pull it up if you'd wish

also, saying that there can be spells of Modoki forcing later in the winter isn't wishcasting... there are reasons for why that would occur, and every single seasonal model besides the CFS is banking on it. the western lean to the forcing has been happening all summer sure, they could ALL be wrong, but not acknowledging that is like seeing a -PNA/+AO/+NAO and saying that there's a better than normal chance at a HECS. it's kind of silly to laugh in the face of the mounting evidence. it's not like all guidance is showing those parameters (classical forcing, major E Canada ridging, +NAO) and people are trying to will a more favorable pattern... it legitimately seems more likely than not right now that the back end of winter has the potential for a prolific pattern to develop

if the MEI/RONI are much lower than the ONI, I can near guarantee that there won't be canonical Nino forcing near 140W. it would be farther west the two happening at the same time would basically contradict each other

looking at ENSO… no changes

the forcing is going to be more important than the raw ONI... that seems to have become clear at this point. besides, the WPAC warm pool likely leads to a MEI that's significantly lower anyway. this is already evident a 2.1C Nino might only act like a 1.7C Nino. there is a big difference. I think we'd need to get to 2016 levels for this to actually act like a super event

again, years like 1982 and 1972 still need to be considered at this point, but it seems like we're leaning towards a more favorable outcome than not. we're almost into September at this point. to deny that would be like seeing a near-unanimous blowtorch and saying "well, they could all be wrong and it could still be quite snowy!" that person would be called a weenie, and rightfully so. not sure why when it's the other way around, everyone gets all skeptical I would say if modeling still looks like this by the early October runs, years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 will be serious considerations. for now, they're just more years to think about until everything shakes out through the fall

also, if we're going to be completely honest with ourselves for a moment, which set of years does the C3S look like? the moderate to low-end strong years with Modoki-esque forcing, or the classical super Ninos? not even trying to say which scenario is more likely to be correct, but I'm not sure how you can say it doesn't look more like the former than the latter my assumption is that the farther west forcing is leading to a farther W Aleutian LP, which helps height anomalies out west remain more neutral than negative and increase blocking. blocking will be a key feature this year, and the -QBO and ascending solar activity close to a max leans towards more blocking than less