brooklynwx99

yeah, but when looking at variables like the ONI and forcing, they’re actually not as far off as you’d think. that’s the point some of us have been making honestly, 2009 is also a great QBO and summer pattern match. not expecting a winter like that, but it’s a solid analog

it’s just odd since those are such banner weenie years… but if the shoe fits

yeah it's definitely encouraging. still want to wait until October but I like what I'm seeing

looking at the projected forcing for the start of September, we're seeing the forcing displaced far west towards the dateline or even west of it! this is much farther west than 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. 1972 is perhaps the closest, but it's still too far east overall in fact, the forcing thus far is much more comparable to 2009, 2002, and 1963, with the core near the dateline as opposed to between 140-160W. 2002 is extremely similar. IMO there is no need to heavily rely on the classical EP Ninos when it's abundantly clear that this event isn't acting like one

if this ends up basin wide with the forcing still leaning west as it's been doing all summer, we're probably in business very curious to see what the CanSIPS spits out on Friday

I'm happy that this is actually becoming a basin wide event. was worried about that a few weeks ago

I would be shocked if this winter averaged out with a strong -NAO given the -QBO and the propensity for Ninos to have periods of blocking

it’s not likely that this is going to remain east based. this is in the process of becoming basin wide, as all models have advertised as we head into the fall

it’s the only seasonal model that shows that FWIW

chill the fuck out dude lmao

no, you’re not wrong per se, but a strong Nino implies a three month averaged ONI at or above +1.5C

you're in the MA subforum

for where he lives, that's still a soaker

the people who are in the colder anomalies get blasted... look at the west over the last couple of years. it's just that if you're not, good luck

we aren't allowed to like things because the earth is burning that's how all of this is supposed to work

strong Ninos always have one or two monsters... it's a matter of if you can: cash in on the monsters get other light to moderate events sprinkled in

I have mixed feelings on this year, but given the propensity for the main tropical forcing to be centered far west of Ninos of this type along with the -QBO in place, we should see some good spells of blocking given the strong +ENSO, the favored SE trough instead of SE ridge will make blocking far more effective than it was last winter I would definitely be more optimistic than pessimistic down by you guys. STJ will be rocking, and Ninos this strong are always good for a nuke or two in the winter

isn't it averaged for the month, though? so August would be at like 1.35-1.4, no?

is this what people felt about 02-03 in the wake of 01-02?

I would say 140-150W… that’s where canonical forcing usually sets up

it's not stated in the paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2013JD021343 here's a temperature composite they devised for all of the solar phases... ascending towards a max is quite favorable

I don't entirely disagree, but super Nino = warm doesn't seem to be the right way to go based on the factors presented thus far. this isn't behaving like a typical one and I don't expect it to come winter also, there is a decent shot that we could see the two halves of the winter vary wildly... look at 14-15, for example. I could see a +5 December and -2 February with above average precip. either way, the way your point is being framed is just too reductive. you also said "in the east," just New England

you're being reductive

I mean, ascending solar activity, especially near the max seems to favor a -NAO more than not. not a perfect correlation, but still favors it

pretty much two years at this point as well. the SPV is on the weaker end of normal, if anything. then, normal variability afterwards