brooklynwx99

i didn't guarantee anything. i said that the patterns had a much higher than normal threat for a major snowstorm, and they certainly did hold that threat. those threats did not pan out, which happens from time to time if you cannot wrap your head around the concept of probability and risk, I don't really know what to tell you

the setups were amazing. too bad we didn't get anything, it happens. however, there were two massive storms in the windows both myself and many others posted about, one of which was historic in parts of New England and the Hudson Valley at least I'm formulating my own thoughts based on pattern recognition instead of breathlessly reposting tweets that aren't even my own just stop lmao there's a reason why you're five-posted

yeah but Paul Roundy said

the EMI really does increase as we head into the winter... the Jamstec has a mean DJF ENSO of around 1.2, which is on the weaker side, but it's more reasonable than 3C IMO if we keep the Nino under 2C, i will be pretty excited. there's definitely reason to be optimistic

I think if we get a 1.5-2C event with the forcing between 160-190W where the models have it, it's going to be a good winter. I don't think it's ridiculous to see something like the NMME or CanSIPS play out

here are the zonal winds from the Ninos that topped out over 2C... 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. these all exhibit very strong WWBs in the western Pacific: and here is this year: there is just no similarity at all. just based on this alone, I find it very hard to see this event spiking well over 2C like some have been proclaiming. perhaps a month between 2-2.1C. the majority of models seem to agree on this

i know, i really just don't see that happening at all. this event bears no resemblance to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98... those had massive westerly wind bursts and this event has nothing of the sort. I think this sits somewhere between 1.3-2C but that's about it

i have no idea how someone can look at this data and say that a super Nino is likely. the CFS has trended towards a strong event and the IRI dynamical models also paint the same picture. the BOM is a massive outlier and shouldn't be seriously considered the trade winds during this event have also had zero similarities to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98. i just don't see the support for that kind of solution

this model is an absolutely massive outlier and should be discounted for now. twitter sucks so hard lmao

i just have a very hard time believing the Australian when it's the most extreme outlier. just seems a bit much compared to literally everything else. it's obviously going to get a ton of traction on social media in the same way that a 384hr GFS OP snow map does, though the dynamical average peak of +1.5-2.0C seems the most reasonable right now

it's insane lmao

yeah this makes sense. just increases variance overall. going to have to be patient, but when we get hammered it probably breaks records

yeah that one was weak sauce. ONI topped out at 0.8 on the DJF mean so it had issues coupling with the WPAC warm pool and the two Ninas beforehand. if this thing is moderate to strong, it's going to couple and we're going to see Nino effects, no real doubt about that

yup that's definitely from the STJ. no matter how this winter goes, it'll be really interesting. excited to see what happens

what's nice is that the forcing from the seasonals is actually centered around 160-190W... would perhaps give us some Modoki-like stretches where the forcing leaks towards the dateline between without actually needing the Modoki nino. the WPAC warm pool might actually help us out rather than hurt us the forcing is really the main thing. the location of the SST anomalies just promotes forcing in certain spots, but I am very optimistic if we actually get forcing that pretty much sits in the central Pacific on average

the event beginning east based at this point in time has little to no bearing on where the greatest anomalies will be in the fall and winter. I would bet this ends up becoming solidly basin wide with the core of the SST anomalies around 110-140W

i know. it'll be interesting to see where the forcing actually sets up. farther east and we likely have a 1982/1997 type winter, while things could get very interesting if we get the same location as 2016 with a slightly weaker Nino. time will tell

it's actually kind of like a stronger version of 1957-58. that ENSO event started off very east based as well

the NMME is similar to the CanSIPS in that it does initially have a strong east-based Nino that becomes basin wide as it weakens once into the late fall and winter. this looks like a pretty plausible scenario where the Nino tops out at high-end strong but settles to around 1.5C once into winter although the Nino becomes basin-wide, I would imagine that there remains a western lean to the forcing due to the WPAC warm pool, as the height anomalies resemble more of a central-based event rather than a traditional basin-wide one. intriguing, to say the least... the 2016-type winter could be more of a legit analog at this point, but I would expect a significantly weaker Nino than that. no reason to go for a Nino over 2C in a three-month mean yet

if we get a 1.0-1.7C Nino, I think we're honestly off to the races. just a matter of if it becomes high-end strong to super... becomes very tough to get persistent cold at that point. snow, as you know, doesn't really correlate very skeptical of the super Nino stuff. this year just hasn't held a candle to the WWBs of 2016, 1997 and 1982. sure, sample size is low, but still. not even close i'm still on the 0.8-1.7C basin wide train. seems like the most likely outcome as of right now

I'm also kind of sick of people saying that 2016 was a fluke. the pattern was loaded for the 20 days before the blizzard occurred with significant west-based blocking, a juiced STJ, and confluence over the northern Atlantic. the GoA low led to a transient +PNA and the rest is history this pattern was likely due to the strong forcing moving west towards the dateline. no way it was just a coincidence with a Nino that strong driving the bus

looking at 1997, for example, and 2016, there is a complete discrepancy between where each year's forcing was... 1997 had forcing well east, which led to a huge low in the GoA and an all-time awful winter. 2016, however, had its forcing a tick east of the dateline, which explains the HECS later in the year. it was no coincidence, as Jan 2016 featured significant west-based blocking, and the storm occurred when the blocking decayed looking at the CFS, which does have a basin-wide super Nino ala 2016, it also has very similar forcing to 2016. it's centered near the dateline with weaker rising motion over the S US. if anything, it's a touch farther W: so, even if this does become a super Nino, which I'm still highly skeptical of, it would provide chances for episodes of blocking and even a MECS or better similar to 2016. the forcing would likely be in a favorable location even if the Nino itself is a bit too strong. if the Nino is more moderate to strong rather than strong to super, it's really encouraging with the forcing in that location... the CanSIPS has similar forcing with a strong Nino and it's very nice looking

looks similar to the CanSIPS. nice to see the forcing centered near the Dateline rather than closer to the SA coast

2002 is actually a pretty good analog for this summer when using general ENSO strength, PDO, Atlantic SSTs and the 500mb pattern during March and April. both myself and two other meteorologists came up with it as one of the top summer analogs for my company's summer outlook, and I wouldn't say that either of them have a cold bias I do not expect a Modoki to form for this winter by any means, but it can't be discounted... same for an east-based event. I personally expect basin wide. however, the similarities thus far are quite notable. that winter also came off of a three year stretch of -ENSO, similar to this one

honestly seasonal models almost never have below average anomalies anywhere, so i think it’s very impressive that it has parts of the MA below average on a three month mean. no doubt it would be solidly below average with that 500mb pattern