brooklynwx99

yup that's definitely from the STJ. no matter how this winter goes, it'll be really interesting. excited to see what happens

what's nice is that the forcing from the seasonals is actually centered around 160-190W... would perhaps give us some Modoki-like stretches where the forcing leaks towards the dateline between without actually needing the Modoki nino. the WPAC warm pool might actually help us out rather than hurt us the forcing is really the main thing. the location of the SST anomalies just promotes forcing in certain spots, but I am very optimistic if we actually get forcing that pretty much sits in the central Pacific on average

the event beginning east based at this point in time has little to no bearing on where the greatest anomalies will be in the fall and winter. I would bet this ends up becoming solidly basin wide with the core of the SST anomalies around 110-140W

i know. it'll be interesting to see where the forcing actually sets up. farther east and we likely have a 1982/1997 type winter, while things could get very interesting if we get the same location as 2016 with a slightly weaker Nino. time will tell

it's actually kind of like a stronger version of 1957-58. that ENSO event started off very east based as well

the NMME is similar to the CanSIPS in that it does initially have a strong east-based Nino that becomes basin wide as it weakens once into the late fall and winter. this looks like a pretty plausible scenario where the Nino tops out at high-end strong but settles to around 1.5C once into winter although the Nino becomes basin-wide, I would imagine that there remains a western lean to the forcing due to the WPAC warm pool, as the height anomalies resemble more of a central-based event rather than a traditional basin-wide one. intriguing, to say the least... the 2016-type winter could be more of a legit analog at this point, but I would expect a significantly weaker Nino than that. no reason to go for a Nino over 2C in a three-month mean yet

if we get a 1.0-1.7C Nino, I think we're honestly off to the races. just a matter of if it becomes high-end strong to super... becomes very tough to get persistent cold at that point. snow, as you know, doesn't really correlate very skeptical of the super Nino stuff. this year just hasn't held a candle to the WWBs of 2016, 1997 and 1982. sure, sample size is low, but still. not even close i'm still on the 0.8-1.7C basin wide train. seems like the most likely outcome as of right now

I'm also kind of sick of people saying that 2016 was a fluke. the pattern was loaded for the 20 days before the blizzard occurred with significant west-based blocking, a juiced STJ, and confluence over the northern Atlantic. the GoA low led to a transient +PNA and the rest is history this pattern was likely due to the strong forcing moving west towards the dateline. no way it was just a coincidence with a Nino that strong driving the bus

looking at 1997, for example, and 2016, there is a complete discrepancy between where each year's forcing was... 1997 had forcing well east, which led to a huge low in the GoA and an all-time awful winter. 2016, however, had its forcing a tick east of the dateline, which explains the HECS later in the year. it was no coincidence, as Jan 2016 featured significant west-based blocking, and the storm occurred when the blocking decayed looking at the CFS, which does have a basin-wide super Nino ala 2016, it also has very similar forcing to 2016. it's centered near the dateline with weaker rising motion over the S US. if anything, it's a touch farther W: so, even if this does become a super Nino, which I'm still highly skeptical of, it would provide chances for episodes of blocking and even a MECS or better similar to 2016. the forcing would likely be in a favorable location even if the Nino itself is a bit too strong. if the Nino is more moderate to strong rather than strong to super, it's really encouraging with the forcing in that location... the CanSIPS has similar forcing with a strong Nino and it's very nice looking

looks similar to the CanSIPS. nice to see the forcing centered near the Dateline rather than closer to the SA coast

2002 is actually a pretty good analog for this summer when using general ENSO strength, PDO, Atlantic SSTs and the 500mb pattern during March and April. both myself and two other meteorologists came up with it as one of the top summer analogs for my company's summer outlook, and I wouldn't say that either of them have a cold bias I do not expect a Modoki to form for this winter by any means, but it can't be discounted... same for an east-based event. I personally expect basin wide. however, the similarities thus far are quite notable. that winter also came off of a three year stretch of -ENSO, similar to this one

honestly seasonal models almost never have below average anomalies anywhere, so i think it’s very impressive that it has parts of the MA below average on a three month mean. no doubt it would be solidly below average with that 500mb pattern

is that better forkles @forkyfork

so far, I don't really see anything that supports a super Nino event, mainly due to the stark difference in the trade winds in the E Pacific. @bluewave mentioned this a few days ago, I believe. the very strong to super Nino events of 1972-73, 1982-83, 1996-97, and 2009-10 had very strong westerly winds across much of the western and central Pacific. 1972 and 1997 are the most striking examples with the westerlies pretty much off the charts. the westerlies in 1982 and 2015 were also strong and widespread... this obviously helped lead to very high-end events looking at this year, we're seeing a stark departure from these very strong to super Nino years. there are some strong westerlies, but they're displaced near the Maritime continent and easterlies still dominate much of the equatorial Pacific. although I still expect El Nino to strengthen, it is clear that we likely aren't on the same track as the very strong to super Nino years of the past. I am aware that three years is not enough of a sample size to completely discount the possibility, but looking at these years, it's just too different for me to consider it a significant possibility years like 2002 and 1986 are perhaps a bit more matched with this one with a more subdued WWB near the Maritime continent, but it's still not perfect by any means. 2004 is also kind of decent. this year is a bit of a weird one, I don't really see any legitimately great matches here either way, my point is that it seems like a higher-end weak to low-end strong event seems much more likely than a legitimate strong to super event. I know that trade winds aren't the only factor that goes into ENSO development, but the sheer departure of this year compared to 1972/1982/1996/2015 really makes me pause. a year more similar to 2002/1986 looks more likely at this point. those years were both moderate Ninos that came off of three year -ENSO stretches, which also makes them a bit more pertinent not totally sure where this will go, but if I had to bet on it, somewhere in the +0.8-1.6C range with a basin wide look makes the most sense to me. we'll see how it shakes out in the coming months... the very warm models should come back down to earth by July, definitely August. if they don't, we could have a very strong event on our hands. time will tell

take it? i would pay for this three month 500mb mean. absolutely lights out

if they mean significant in the strict statistical sense, then I would imagine that a moderate El Nino would be such. definitely strong... the statement does not imply a super Nino

i'm not sure if anyone that should be taken seriously had a cold, snowy last year. I had December with a chance to be cold and snowy if blocking developed, but we got screwed there. then, perhaps residual cold from December blocking in early Jan before the late Jan-Feb torch. overall warm and less snowy most people went the typical Nina route from the get-go

AmericanTwitter

apparently a super east-based Nino is the most likely scenario? we haven't even passed the spring barrier lmao I'm still leaning moderate to low-end strong until proven otherwise. there's also still enough model variability on placement that anything from east-based to a central leaning basin-wide event is possible. no real way to tell until we get into July-August if I had to bet money on it, I'd say like a +1.3-1.7 basin-wide event

I wouldn't say that. sample size is just too small. if we have these problems in 2030 then yeah maybe

also, 2016 was an abject blowtorch with a +10 December, but it also gave BWI and NYC their biggest snowfalls ever. weird things happen in Ninos when the STJ is juiced

i will take normal 2m temps with a STJ on roids and that blocky 500mb pattern also getting a seasonal to show below normal temps when using the 1981-2010 climo is a feat already. i'm just excited we're getting a shakeup with the Nino

this is just as plausible, so I'll ride this into the sunset for now

isn't strong 1.5-2C, very strong 2-2.5C, and super 2.5+C? the mean is advertising a strong Nino, not super i hate twitter lmao

if we get a strong Nino next winter, the persistent trough over the Southeast will cool those anomalies down. those SSTs are largely a result of 5 Ninas in 7 years also the warm Gulf will help break snowfall records at some point. it's a give and take. repeat 2016 now and BWI gets 36"