brooklynwx99

the ascending solar activity approaching a max, -QBO, and general strong Nino forcing pretty solidly favor HL blocking this winter. the projected western lean to the forcing bolsters that even more so not exactly worried about a lack of blocking this winter

yup, last year shows why it’s such a great tool. it’ll play a part this year as well

i’ve heard everyone was like this after 01-02, then we got 02-03

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

the forcing likely has a western lean to it given the pull of the WPAC warm pool. the MEI is also a good bit lower than the ONI, suggesting that some of the punch is taken out of it due to the WPAC. modeling seems to be suggesting both of these outcomes, which is encouraging

you’re too hung up on the raw ONI dude

looks like this is becoming a basin-wide Nino as the models have projected. all seems to be on track there

that wasn’t an attack whatsoever. i am skeptical about the climate models, but I believe that the evidence is mounting for a good end to the winter after a slow start I can see everyone getting pretty much blanked through Jan 10-20, then the floodgates may open. we shall see

imagine if almost all modeling looked like garbage like last winter and you had people like “well maybe all the models are just wrong and we’ll have really favorable forcing!” they’d be shit on and rightfully so. not sure why it’s ok the other way around

also, you can give the climate models grief, but they usually get the general flavor of the winter right. it would be a complete modeling failure for them to totally bomb it

this is a silly post. there are reasons for it to lean to the west that have been discussed ad nauseum your point is just “well the models could all be totally wrong because i said so” which doesn’t hold that much water

December has a good chance of being legitimately awful IMO

i don’t know. sure, if the WPAC was cooler than normal and the forcing was at a normal spot, but I would be resigned to the torch train however, those two major factors are wholly different. not sure how we can apply “classic” analogs and ENSO states when things are anything but classic

yeah, the models looked like dog shit all summer for last winter. what about this Nino is going to be east based going into the winter? models have the forcing far west… it already is now. the SSTs are also going to become basin wide. what about that screams east based?

you’re being a bit reductive there’s nuance with all of this stuff

+4 Dec, near normal Jan and -2 Feb with blocking and a potent STJ paired with split flow would absolutely work though

it’s already been shown so far that the WPAC warm pool is weakening the coupling of the Nino… that is pretty much certain. a don’t think a 2.0C nino would behave like a classic one. why would it? we’re in a new climate

a blowtorch winter is absolutely not a reasonable expectation. what is showing that besides the CFS? if the models are correct with the forcing, near normal is a better bet, unless you’re in far northern NE

it wouldn’t be La Niña forcing though, it would be bouts of basin wide to west based Nino forcing. it’s not that ridiculous when the WPAC is at warm as it is the same boiling WPAC kept the MJO pinned farther west for 2021 and 2022, so this is probably what the modeling is hinting at

honestly those temp and snowfall maps aren’t that unreasonable for late Jan into March. early season might skew it warmer though

the record breaking rain is also from a highly anomalous track from a major tropical system. not sure how a seasonal model is supposed to pick up on something like that

I'm not sure how many times I have said that 1972 and 1982 are legit analogs while ALSO stating that those Modoki years might be worth considering, as the WPAC warm pool both diminishes the coupling of the Nino and shifts forcing west. nobody is sure that this winter will be severe... nobody has even said that besides known Twitter hacks like JB it's really not that ridiculous of a concept. in fact, I would say that it's more ridiculous than postulating that pretty much every single piece of seasonal guidance is dead wrong and that we're just going to see a classic EP Nino. like, just because of raw ONI without taking anything else into consideration, like solar, QBO, and how the rest of the Pacific is influencing ENSO nobody really knows what's going to happen... we've never been in this climate before with a WPAC that hot and a developing strong Nino. the declarative statements are ridiculous and this may be a year where thinking outside the box is helpful. just a thought

nah, tropical forcing is a crutch that weenies use to forecast because they're sad that it might torch in December. we should know better than that

if the queen had balls...

also just keep in mind that I'm really not that biased when it comes to seasonal forecasting. I was down on last winter as a whole from the get-go aside from some possible December blocking (which did occur). pull it up if you'd wish