brooklynwx99

again, years like 1982 and 1972 still need to be considered at this point, but it seems like we're leaning towards a more favorable outcome than not. we're almost into September at this point. to deny that would be like seeing a near-unanimous blowtorch and saying "well, they could all be wrong and it could still be quite snowy!" that person would be called a weenie, and rightfully so. not sure why when it's the other way around, everyone gets all skeptical I would say if modeling still looks like this by the early October runs, years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 will be serious considerations. for now, they're just more years to think about until everything shakes out through the fall

also, if we're going to be completely honest with ourselves for a moment, which set of years does the C3S look like? the moderate to low-end strong years with Modoki-esque forcing, or the classical super Ninos? not even trying to say which scenario is more likely to be correct, but I'm not sure how you can say it doesn't look more like the former than the latter my assumption is that the farther west forcing is leading to a farther W Aleutian LP, which helps height anomalies out west remain more neutral than negative and increase blocking. blocking will be a key feature this year, and the -QBO and ascending solar activity close to a max leans towards more blocking than less

i mean, looking at 2010, one could envision the "flooding with Pacific air" that would occur... look at how far east that Aleutian low is. basically in the GoA. that obviously did not happen. blocking + split flow FTW!

I don’t think we’re going to need this to become a classic west based event… basin wide will be fine for most intents and purposes i’m expecting a warm start, though

that should lead to the trickling west of the greatest SST anomalies, leading to a more basin-wide Nino

this is the super ensemble mean… sign me up

I know, I really don't know what to think here. 95% of the time, a Nino that strong is a complete torch, but there are factors that we've never seen before I'm like the opposite of last year... 65% optimistic and 35% pessimistic. we'll have a better idea once into the fall

I mean, for the sake of argument, the French model has the Nino peaking at like 2.5C and still has a very favorable EC pattern. I don't think it's a coincidence that the majority of seasonal models are showing this regardless of if the raw ONI gets above 2C... there is more at play here

the CanSIPS, JMA, ECMWF pretty much have one, but they still look favorable due to where they have the greatest forcing. the raw ONI isn't as useful as it usually is here call these fantasy model projections all you want, but this is not what a typical super Nino looks like by any stretch. the WPAC warm pool is likely the reason for that... the MEI is likely closer to 1.3-1.7 and the forcing is likely dragged west as discussed ad nauseam by this point

the thing is that the raw SST anomalies have almost zero impact at this range the forcing has remained far west, and this is going to become basin wide anyway. not sure what the EP circle jerk is about right now. it’s kinda pointless

BEASTLY EP NINO with a MEI of +0.3 give me a break

in terms of MEI, the new reading for JJ came out at +0.3 1997 had a MEI for those months of +2.1, 1982 was +1.9, and +1.7 2002 was +0.4, 1986 was +0.8, and 2010 was +0.4 this year literally has a lower MEI than those moderate years and isn't in the same galaxy as the super years listed above. hence my skepticism of a super Nino blowtorch this year. this doesn't take the location of the forcing into account either

near normal is totally fine if there's blocking and a potent STJ if you're looking for big snow. doesn't have to be all that cold. Feb 2010 and Feb 1983 are good examples of that

but this is literally different than every nino in history. historical precedent isn’t as meaningful as it usually is

that does NOT look like a classic EB Nino. no idea what he’s talking about

i’m not even sure what he’s getting on about here… the Nino becomes basin wide on the C3S and forcing remains near the dateline. this would work well once into Jan and Feb. weird tweet

Webb’s tweet is dumb. no idea what he’s complaining about here… deep trough by Jan with forcing a tick east of the dateline. this will work

not sure what Webb is even talking about. i’m praying this verifies. deep trough once into Jan with forcing near the dateline? sign me up

so we can look at the modeled SST anomalies at 8 months out all we want, but we can't look at the modeled forcing, which is the thing that actually influences the pattern? why is that

this wasn't posted for some reason... lmao

yeah there was great blocking in Dec and Mar... the Dec blocking was picked up quite well by analogs just got ruined by a mix of awful luck and an insane -PNA. this year should not feature that -PNA, so blocking will be far more beneficial combined with the STJ I'm pretty confident in blocking given the Nino state as well as the -QBO

no they don’t way better than it looked last year. last year looked like shit and boy did it deliver

sorry it doesn’t live up to your lofty expectations

i don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. it hasn’t behaved like one in the past whatsoever. why would it later on? perhaps, but I’m not banking on that and it’s not for no reason. every other super Nino had that SST dipole with colder water in the WPAC. this one doesn’t, and it will have an impact

ECMWF looks great too