brooklynwx99

do you have one single real life friend

that isn’t going to happen

this likely leads to a lower peak in strength in the coming days if I had to take a guess

we'll have to see this season, but as long as the WPAC warm pool is present, it should make Ninas worse and Ninos better due to the forcing being displaced west seems like the former is holding true

it's really a shame. that PV lobe prevented what could have been a 1-3 foot burial if that thing got over the water. some of those solutions before that lobe messed things up were insane

this is why the seasonals showing the forcing more around 160-180W rather than 140-160W is so auspicious 1997-98 is an absolute trash analog right now unless every single seasonal is miles off... which is obviously very unlikely

only thing that really has this MJO pulse in earnest is the CFS. if it's correct, though, this would signal the transition to a more basin-wide Nino rather than the east-based configuration we have right now as 4 and 3.4 warm and 1+2 cools off

it's probably because it has the MJO pulse, but it's still on an island with regards to that... just my guess. most models have a weak wave at best. we'll see which is right over the next couple of weeks

were you a hall monitor in school, by any chance?

honestly, the debs make my life a bit easier. sometimes I get accused of disappearing when the patterns crap out during the winter. wanna know why myself and others don't post when things are quiet? because there are several people waiting to talk about how crap the pattern is. why even bother posting about it lmao it's also just quiet and uninteresting anyway

it determines where and how strong the tropical forcing is, or at least it's the biggest influence of the forcing for +ENSO, it often leads to forcing that causes an Aleutian low to form based on where the warmest water is situated. this Nino is interesting because it seems like the WPAC warm pool may be dragging the forcing farther west towards MJO phases 7, 8, and 1. this leads to a farther west ULL that opens the door for split flow and blocking rather than an inundation of Pacific air it's the opposite for -ENSO, as the forcing is centered over the Maritime Continent in MJO phases 4, 5, and 6... these lead to an Aleutian high and low heights over the Pacific NW. this is why Ninas suck most of the time so seeing the forcing so consistently projected to be over the dateline leads me to believe that a favorable winter with a strong STJ is certainly in the cards... we just need to wait a couple more months to iron out the strength and location of the Nino

it is literally the largest ensemble we have for this kind of stuff. not sure what your gripe is about considering it'll have the highest skill given the most data available there is enough hardcore analysis of trade winds and shit like that. it doesn't really change that much on a daily basis. i mean, GaWx posts daily SST changes from three different analyses... is that not enough for you?

new data looks good

can't be mad at this

the new C3S looks good for the start of winter. it's an ensemble of the ECMWF, CanSIPS, NCEP, UKMET, French models, German models, and JAMSTEC... pretty much an ensemble of every major seasonal forecasting model. it's as holistic as we can get it is consistent with the cooling of 1+2, shifting the anomalies basin-wide once we head into the late fall and early winter. we end up with a high-end strong to low-end super Nino here on average. perhaps the most important part is that forcing sets up shop along the dateline, probably leading to a more favorable pattern. the forcing is more important than the strength, IMO. if we have forcing in this region for most of the winter, there is going to be a large winter storm or two. I would put money down on that 500mb shows this... keep in mind that this has the global mean subtracted, so the negative anomalies would be lesser, but this still shows a mean trough over the SE with blocking. the STJ is ripping with the right entrance region over the Gulf alongside split flow, and there is a significant positive precip anomaly over the EC

this doesn't give me much confidence. yes, there may be a pulse, but it looks like it'll be on the weaker side and towards the end of the month. most members have no wave at all

1957-58 did the same thing. was super east-based, shifted west, and was a great winter with central-based forcing. most models are showing the same

a few warm outliers of the ECMWF that are surely being shot around on twitter. that’s about it

if we get a moderate Nino we will be fine. doubt it's any weaker than 1.3-ish

new NMME. pretty much moderate to strong... super Nino losing a lot of credence at this point

new NMME. pretty much moderate to strong. Nino generally doesn’t strengthen much until September

yes, there are some members that push a decent to strong MJO wave into 6, but these are outliers and the mean is still weak to non-impactful

the bias corrected CFS pretty much favors a moderate Nino as well. this falls in line with the CanSIPS. i think this is on the cooler side, but it has still trended colder over the last 15 days the ECMWF is still running warm, but it is still trending towards the CFS and CanSIPS. again, we would need to see significant warming occur very soon in order for the higher-end solutions to play out

CFS is still trending towards a high-end moderate to strong Nino. the members with a three-month over +2C are few and far between. we will need to see very rapid warming by the end of the month in order to have those super Nino predictions pan out