brooklynwx99

it’s overrunning to coastal

euro is a full phase, ends up tucking offshore. huge hit that run to run change is nuts

euro is phasing!!

the TPV changing its orientation over the last day is big for us. went from centered over Nova Scotia to centered over the Plains. heights downstream have adjusted considerably higher as a result

the trend with the TPV splitting in two more is what you want to see - allows for heights in the SE to rise more

the trend with the TPV splitting in two more is what you want to see - allows for heights in the SE to rise more

CMC and GFS both moved towards a more efficient phase, great to see

lol this does not require an explanation

we're getting closer now, and models are beginning to hone in on significant to potentially major snowfall across the mid-Atlantic. we have seen the AI models lead the way with the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF becoming a bit more aggressive. the AIFS and AIGFS have pared back a bit, but they were quite amped to start regardless, the pattern is favorable for someone to see MECS impacts... we have a very favorable synoptic setup for the MA with strong confluence due to an anomalous 50/50 ULL, a southern stream vort, deep Arctic air in place, and even a potential interaction with the northern stream. right now, the RIC to DC corridor is most favored to see 6"+, but that is certainly possible even into NYC given high ratios and the propensity for these systems to inch north towards game time. it will be important to see if, and where this stream interaction occurs, as it could have drastic impacts on how far north precip eventually gets good luck, and happy tracking! we will have more in the tank after this regardless

we're getting closer now, and models are beginning to hone in on significant to potentially major snowfall across the mid-Atlantic. we have seen the AI models lead the way with the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF becoming a bit more aggressive. the AIFS and AIGFS have pared back a bit, but they were quite amped to start regardless, the pattern is favorable for someone to see MECS impacts... we have a very favorable synoptic setup for the MA with strong confluence due to an anomalous 50/50 ULL, a southern stream vort, deep Arctic air in place, and even a potential interaction with the northern stream. right now, the RIC to DC corridor is most favored to see 6"+, but that is certainly possible even into NYC given high ratios and the propensity for these systems to inch north towards game time. it will be important to see if, and where this stream interaction occurs, as it could have drastic impacts on how far north precip eventually gets good luck, and happy tracking! we will have more in the tank after this regardless

yeah, I feel like there would have been a secondary developing. jet is at least better aloft

AIFS-EPS likes that idea

EPS has more phasing

i mean, you have overrunning and then a rotting, highly anomalous block with +PNA due to tropical forcing

AIFS might be the most ridiculous shit i have ever seen

i'd be getting excited down here. this has all the hallmarks of a mid-Atlantic MECS (up by me is less certain for sure)... ample moisture, strong 250mb jet, some phasing potential, antecedent Arctic air, and confluence in place

i'd be excited if I was in the metro... northern fringes can do well with banding and these systems love to tick north up to game time. we'll have to monitor confluence and the phasing potential, but this could be formidable. and that's not even mentioning the 28-29th

this might do it for you then

this can def work. legit overrunning chance, anyone from DC to BOS should be watching

this is probably the best shot at repeating a Feb 2021 type stretch (sure, ended up not awesome for the MA, but you’d run it back) in quite some time. hopefully we can cash in… we have high end overrunning potential around the 25th and then a more prototypical big coastal chance as the -NAO decays and the PNA rises

this is probably the best shot at repeating a Feb 2021 type stretch in quite some time. hopefully we can cash in… we have high end overrunning potential around the 25th and then a more prototypical big coastal chance as the -NAO decays and the PNA rises

another animation, I know, but this is how you get a MECS. retrograding Scandi block, 50/50 ULL, PNA rising nothing is guaranteed, but this is how you pull it off

it probably moderates for a week as the Pacific jet overextends but you'd probably get another window as it retracts

obviously nothing is guaranteed, but that is what you want to see if you are big game hunting

this is eye popping. classic MECS preloading and pattern progression with the retrograding/decaying Scandi block, rising PNA, departing 50/50 ULL and amping trough over the E US