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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    george
  2. brooklynwx99
    bro what
  3. brooklynwx99
    the RGEM is actually really similar to the AI models... has the main precip with the PVA ahead of the main vort
  4. brooklynwx99
    the Pacific trough pumps the PNA... that's part of the reason why it usually torches after big storms as the jet overextends
  5. brooklynwx99
    yup. first, moisture pushing into a cold dome and then a shot at a retrograding block to end the month. can't ask for more at this range
  6. brooklynwx99
    i'm just gonna leave this here
  7. brooklynwx99
    lol it only nails it if the solution is crappy. we've seen it amp up and do interesting things only to fall flat on its face
  8. brooklynwx99
    it’s a bit more consolidated and precip is a bit farther west but still, not great
  9. brooklynwx99
    euro looks like complete ass. comical
  10. brooklynwx99
    notice how the vort is less involved in the broader trough… way more legit PVA here compared to the previous run as it pivots
  11. brooklynwx99
    CMC is a hit. continues to trend west
  12. brooklynwx99
    yeah, in between. nice to see with the AI looking good and the CMC likely coming in amped
  13. brooklynwx99
    AI is a legit hit
  14. brooklynwx99
    CMC should come in hot, RGEM is amped
  15. brooklynwx99
    the AIFS-EPS is wetter, so that's nice. vort digs more
  16. brooklynwx99
    thread of doom and despair
  17. brooklynwx99
    yeah, vort was looking more SW which is what the GFS did, but the lead wave dampened it. still like seeing that shift with the vort
  18. brooklynwx99
    who could have possibly seen this coming
  19. brooklynwx99
    probably close, but no cigar
  20. brooklynwx99
    GFS looks quite a bit more consolidated
  21. brooklynwx99
    it’s an average, you’re going to have members with the gradient south of the mean. not all that surprising
  22. brooklynwx99
    hopefully we can eke something out before the 20th... the pattern looks to open up after the 22nd as more moisture gets involved and cold becomes more entrenched
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the 22-24th is a solid timeframe with established cold air, low heights over SE Canada, and some -NAO/-EPO. can see how you'd get something ejecting out of the west into cold air
  24. brooklynwx99
    when you're forecasting past a week out, using ensembles and focusing on the broader pattern to point out timeframes of interest is generally the way to go. this will be taught in every forecasting classroom on the planet. now that we're a few days later on, we can see that there are two distinct waves rather than a single trough (which, by the way, some OP runs had) this is the way long range forecasting is... the data change sometimes. it doesn't make the process any less valid
  25. brooklynwx99
    why are you like this, dude
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