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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    March 2018 is the crown jewel of this kind of warming, everyone likes to bring that absurd MJO pulse up haha
  2. brooklynwx99
    there's really no reason why the pattern will just magically fall apart as we head into Feb... +EAMT should keep the jet extended along with tropical forcing moving into the CPAC the recently stronger SPV is also having zero impact, as the earlier SSW downwelled and is leading to a -AO that will persist into mid-late month. and if anything, a strong MJO pulse into phases 6 and 7 into Feb will encourage weakening of the SPV, potentially allowing for a SSW into mid-Feb. that's way out there, though
  3. brooklynwx99
    lol this kind of logic has only surfaced in the last few years
  4. brooklynwx99
    EPS has been trending towards a more amped trough in the SE, hopefully that continues and we can get a potent low. there was def a camp of amped EPS members last night
  5. brooklynwx99
    also, more of a signal on the EPS for the 15th... makes sense with the PNA spike
  6. brooklynwx99
    lol for the love of god, please verify
  7. brooklynwx99
    if i took a shot every time i heard "fast flow" i would have been dead back in 2023
  8. brooklynwx99
    i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing
  9. brooklynwx99
    i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing
  10. brooklynwx99
    i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing up
  11. brooklynwx99
    probably should have specified the 5-10th but whatever, cold and dry doesn’t do much for me anyway
  12. brooklynwx99
    i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS
  13. brooklynwx99
    i don't know how much we can really move this closer given the lead time, but it's getting a bit precarious
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it really has been like that recently... i can think of multiple times in the last few years. when you're cold, you're cold
  15. brooklynwx99
    lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens
  16. brooklynwx99
    lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens
  17. brooklynwx99
    all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved
  18. brooklynwx99
    yeah, legitimately exciting... that -NAO is uptrending, too. the 5-7th is our first legit shot at a larger region-wide storm. pattern becomes even more favorable after that, too
  19. brooklynwx99
    this poses some promise
  20. brooklynwx99
    yeah, starting to get excited. that's legit and the pattern is only becoming more favorable as the PNA rises and EPO drops
  21. brooklynwx99
    yup, still light-mod snow here, measured 2.4” 10 mins ago… very happy to end up getting close to 3” when all is said and done given how the event began
  22. brooklynwx99
    looking squally
  23. brooklynwx99
    associated with the main vort moving through, makes sense
  24. brooklynwx99
    RGEM is doing a better job with the main 700mb FGEN axis than the NAM, which looks too far north
  25. brooklynwx99
    looks like we're seeing 700mb WAA/FGEN get going, as well as some nice PVA... we should see snow blossom over the next couple of hours
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