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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    i mean, tick it more amped and you curl the PVA back west. it’s close
  2. brooklynwx99
    it really unreal how this isn’t a MECS at first glance. that vort is insane
  3. brooklynwx99
    yeah, stronger and more neg tilted
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah, not as exotic as 12z but still a bomb
  5. brooklynwx99
    absolutely, allows that NS piece over the Lakes to come in at a good angle... that's why the GFS is as amped as it is
  6. brooklynwx99
    the +PNA ridge in and of itself argues for a coastal... that's 2.5 sigma over ID, nearly ideal
  7. brooklynwx99
    this is really as large of an amped shift as you'll see on the EPS at this range
  8. brooklynwx99
    the main differences between the GFS and the ECMWF are that the kicker on the ECMWF is more defined, hurting amplification, and the TPV is also closer to the trough. we'll see how those features trend overall, though, they are actually pretty similar from a synoptic standpoint now
  9. brooklynwx99
    the main differences between the GFS and the ECMWF are that the kicker on the ECMWF is more defined, hurting amplification, and the TPV is also closer to the trough. we'll see how those features trend overall, though, they are actually pretty similar from a synoptic standpoint now
  10. brooklynwx99
    the main differences between the GFS and the ECMWF are that the kicker on the ECMWF is more defined, hurting amplification, and the TPV is also closer to the trough. we'll see how those features trend overall, though, they are actually pretty similar from a synoptic standpoint now
  11. brooklynwx99
    could have been better, but yeah, hard to ask for a better shift
  12. brooklynwx99
    stop doing what? that is a significant move towards a more amplified solution... definitely much more than I thought was going to happen
  13. brooklynwx99
    bit of a shift here if you ask me
  14. brooklynwx99
    holy shit. let's go
  15. brooklynwx99
    wait until you see the euro
  16. brooklynwx99
    euro is notably more amped with the whole trough. holy shit
  17. brooklynwx99
    AIFS is pretty similar, no significant changes
  18. brooklynwx99
    it's notably more amped though
  19. brooklynwx99
    I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now
  20. brooklynwx99
    I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now
  21. brooklynwx99
    i agree with you there. it's possible, but needs more support
  22. brooklynwx99
    agreed, but this is notable
  23. brooklynwx99
    OP is obv on the more amped side of its own ensemble (though they're more or less different models at this point after the GFS got upgraded) the GEFS itself is more amped compared to its 06z run
  24. brooklynwx99
    i said the same thing last night and I am lowkey shocked that the GFS amped up like that again
  25. brooklynwx99
    this is really low predictability... you have the NS vort digging and then buckling, you have another wave out west trying to dampen upstream heights, and then you have the issue of how the TPV impacts the trough. what a mess
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