brooklynwx99

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

yeah, you have +PNA the day of but -PNA beforehand. the +PNA is a transient response to the low heights off the WC. retrograding -NAO is a must (which is why i hate when people totally downplay the impact of the NAO)

very aggressive weakening of the SPV today

what a day. i find it rather unsettling that people that appreciate the weather can't seem to understand that we are impacting it there is a debate to be had as to how we are impacting the weather directly, aside from a direct increase in overall temperature, and I think that the debate in that regard is needed and is healthy. for example, debating how the increased warming will impact nor'easter potential is worth the time, and the perspectives on that topic are appreciated however, totally denying the impact that we have had is complete BS. that stems from denial or political affiliation (which is honestly even worse than straight up denial) sorry to mods if this needs to be cleaned up btw

i swear, reading this thread is like groundhog day sometimes

it's refreshing to see these blocked patterns begin to show up in the medium range. similar stuff happened last year

wow, the ECMWF is super aggressive with the weakening of the SPV early on. can't remember the last time i've seen a SPV potentially this weak to start a winter

kind of a wild trend. hopefully we see more of this in the coming months... it's getting far enough into autumn that it holds a bit of weight. we saw the same -NAO trends last winter

this is a pretty wild change near Japan since August. that heatwave is almost entirely wiped out... wondering if this is a change to a +PDO down the road, especially if we get a Nino next year

we might as well mention the cooling of the majority of the N PAC basin, especially near Japan and SW of the Aleutian Islands

you seem a bit traumatized, dude. -NAO blocking has been in place for pretty much all of NYC's largest storms. to say that Greenland blocking is not beneficial is untrue

one would think that a Nino developing next year would actually kick things positive for a stretch

I prefer to think of the AO as general blocking, the EPO as an Arctic cold index (independent on where it's going), the PNA as a modulator on where cold ends up in the CONUS, and the NAO as a big storm modifier, at least for NYC south. very difficult to get a MECS+ without a -NAO down here i've done research on preloading patterns and the -NAO really has no impact up by you. it's all forced by the Pacific, as you know (see Jan 2022, Jan 2015)

yeah, this fall is really reminding me of last fall so far. last year continues to be a pretty strong analog

the S/W becoming more amplified over WI leads to increased phasing down the line. the entire tilt of the trough is more negative as a result, leading to a much more tucked and amplified system. this is a solid example of looking at 500mb ensemble trends to see how phasing impacts storm track. with all major ensembles on board inside of D5 (CMC was holding out a bit yesterday and this morning), confidence in this system making significant impacts is a good bit higher

since I almost exclusively use analogs since 2000 with only a few in the 90s, I think the 91-20 climo is okay to use

yeah, not the best job

that's going to flip back over the next couple of weeks with the anomalous ridge developing there

in recent years? when has it ever not been tough to maintain a -EPO indefinitely?

I can assure you, when we do get a good winter from NYC south, I doubt anyone will have actually forecasted it beforehand. including myself

i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar

yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch