brooklynwx99

like this is just a fail. the stronger Pacific jet actually helps in Ninas most of the time, not hurts

that's transient. models have vastly underdone the cold spell near Thanksgiving already and whatever brief warmup occurs around the start of the month won't last long

can see heights rising out west at the end as well as the Atlantic pattern becoming blockier

meh. I find that hard to believe given the coupled SSW and MJO progression. should get quite favorable after the 10th, not the other way around

lol

yeah, given how coupled the stratosphere is, I don't think we're on voodoo alert with the nearly certain SSW... we should see an Atlantic blocking spell this month

that EPO isn't a waste, though. always good to have Arctic air nearby so you get a quick flip and cold source region

my guess is that the pattern becomes better for most after the 5th

whatever you say

also, anything before Dec 10 is gravy for 80% of NE/MA posters on this board. couldn't care less if it takes a few more days to get things going

models often rush the progression of cold air eastward in -EPO patterns. i would say after the 5th is when snow risks increase for many in the Northeast in the same vein, i don't think much has really changed in terms of the overall progression. MJO is moving along, the SPV will become very weak and increase the shot at a -NAO spell, and we should see a BN to solidly BN December also, when you have a -WPO/-EPO (and likely a -NAO at some point), it is really, really difficult to have a truly bad period since there's so much cold air displaced into Canada and the CONUS

I’m pretty sure the GEFS has a strong/cold bias with the SPV, but i could be wrong

pretty significant -EPO is likely with the Pacific jet retracting and then breaking equatorward. that's going to have some staying power and will be able to tap into true Arctic air

ensembles are growing more and more aggressive with the -EPO around Thanksgiving thanks to the equatorward movement of the Pacific jet. high confidence in this occurring given the lead time

what do you think the answer to those questions are

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

yeah, you have +PNA the day of but -PNA beforehand. the +PNA is a transient response to the low heights off the WC. retrograding -NAO is a must (which is why i hate when people totally downplay the impact of the NAO)

very aggressive weakening of the SPV today

what a day. i find it rather unsettling that people that appreciate the weather can't seem to understand that we are impacting it there is a debate to be had as to how we are impacting the weather directly, aside from a direct increase in overall temperature, and I think that the debate in that regard is needed and is healthy. for example, debating how the increased warming will impact nor'easter potential is worth the time, and the perspectives on that topic are appreciated however, totally denying the impact that we have had is complete BS. that stems from denial or political affiliation (which is honestly even worse than straight up denial) sorry to mods if this needs to be cleaned up btw

i swear, reading this thread is like groundhog day sometimes

it's refreshing to see these blocked patterns begin to show up in the medium range. similar stuff happened last year