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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion
brooklynwx99 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
this is positive, no? you'd think you'd keep the extended jet here, but it is poleward into AK... go figure. then it looks negative after, so the retraction makes sense -
Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion
brooklynwx99 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion
brooklynwx99 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
yes, but there's subsidence over the MC and the eastern IO with the MJO either null or in Phases 7, 8, or 1 (probably null). the lack of a potent MJO still shouldn't lead to a massive retraction. it's so odd -
Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion
brooklynwx99 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
if this was a common occurrence, you might be able to say that, but a sample size of one isn't that convincing. the reason i called it a cop out is because you can blame basically anything on climate change in some way. it happens all the time, snow or not. people did that in 2013-15 when the West was in a huge drought, calling it the "new normal." how silly that looks now i'm sure it has something to do with it, but it could also be annoying sub-seasonal variability as well. just not enough data. they're definitely going to do some research on this winter, that's for sure -
Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion
brooklynwx99 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
lol that's a cop out -
Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion
brooklynwx99 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
yeah, i get the mechanisms like the jet retraction, but like... why? a -PNA caused by a flat Aleutian ridge is the last thing I would expect. even the warm super Ninos had this timeframe warm because of looks like this. absolutely maddening -
Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion
brooklynwx99 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
this is so lol worthy at this point, I don't even know where to begin. what the fuck is THAT why is there a strong, flat Aleutian ridge at the end of a strong Nino February? so annoying -
Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
really nice 700mb forcing. can see the secondary FGEN banding well on the 3km -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
you actually do have a lot in place... vort moving out of the W US, anomalous PNA ridging, a weak but present Davis Strait block to displace the TPV, and an Atlantic trough that almost provides a sort of pseudo 50/50 low -
Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
this just smells like an overperformer for a lot of NJ… large DGZ, northern FGEN band, and a good airmass these systems love to overperform on the northern edge given the FGEN involved. seems like a weaker version of 1/7/22. whoever gets into this 700mb FGEN is getting 15:1 ratios easily. hell, look at what happened earlier this week with the northern fronto band -
most of it was the storm earlier this week not cutting, so we missed the main wave break that set everything in motion. the Scandinavian ridging also crapped out. really bad luck on both fronts, and it's probably the most complete failure on medium to long range modeling I have seen in quite some time. a shame
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Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
yeah, there's nothing stopping that from happening -
Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
slight tick in the NS buckled the entire trough. these do indeed like to amp up as you head towards game time when there isn't ample confluence -
Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
brooklynwx99 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
there is literally no way to know if this will continue until it does. it's just speculation otherwise. the climate is an average of the weather, after all -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
recently, yes, it has. not sure how airtight that is going forward, though -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
i do think that this is also sorta cyclical. the western US and northern Plains have been cashing in over the last several years. it's not like the entire US has just blowtorched every single year since 2015-16. the cold has just been focused somewhere else -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
there is no support for that, so there is no reason why I would do that... there will be opportunities for snow through the 25th, then a hiatus until perhaps mid-March? the evolution has certainly changed for the worse, no mincing words there. i don't just make shit up however, no reason to be an asshole about it, either. i also wasn't the only one getting excited about the upcoming pattern. there was widespread excitement about it. it made sense in so many ways, but the storm that dropped 6-12" over a wide swath of the Northeast (which you persistently shit all over, mind you), "ruined it." i guess it's ok that the classic pattern got ruined by a SECS. one in the hand is worth two in the bush -
wave breaking never happened. that stuff is really shaky. sometimes people need an explanation for things all the time, and in such a chaotic field, it will drive you crazy. i'm sure there were some other reasons, but the deamplification of today's storm was the main player we had two wave breaking -NAO events this year, one in mid-Dec and one in mid-Jan. this one just didn't do it because things trended more progressive... it wasn't an issue with the general tenor of the year. the tenor of the year would have given you more confidence that it would occur
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
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just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really
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- 5
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
i mean, normally, the fail mode in strong Nino Februarys is an overly oppressive GoAK low, not whatever the hell this is. this makes no sense -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
yeah i get it. it's been rough. just wait until you see the massive flat Aleutian ridge afterwards. in a strong Nino Feb! i mean, what the fuck -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England