brooklynwx99

whatever you say

also, anything before Dec 10 is gravy for 80% of NE/MA posters on this board. couldn't care less if it takes a few more days to get things going

models often rush the progression of cold air eastward in -EPO patterns. i would say after the 5th is when snow risks increase for many in the Northeast in the same vein, i don't think much has really changed in terms of the overall progression. MJO is moving along, the SPV will become very weak and increase the shot at a -NAO spell, and we should see a BN to solidly BN December also, when you have a -WPO/-EPO (and likely a -NAO at some point), it is really, really difficult to have a truly bad period since there's so much cold air displaced into Canada and the CONUS

I’m pretty sure the GEFS has a strong/cold bias with the SPV, but i could be wrong

pretty significant -EPO is likely with the Pacific jet retracting and then breaking equatorward. that's going to have some staying power and will be able to tap into true Arctic air

ensembles are growing more and more aggressive with the -EPO around Thanksgiving thanks to the equatorward movement of the Pacific jet. high confidence in this occurring given the lead time

what do you think the answer to those questions are

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

yeah, you have +PNA the day of but -PNA beforehand. the +PNA is a transient response to the low heights off the WC. retrograding -NAO is a must (which is why i hate when people totally downplay the impact of the NAO)

very aggressive weakening of the SPV today

what a day. i find it rather unsettling that people that appreciate the weather can't seem to understand that we are impacting it there is a debate to be had as to how we are impacting the weather directly, aside from a direct increase in overall temperature, and I think that the debate in that regard is needed and is healthy. for example, debating how the increased warming will impact nor'easter potential is worth the time, and the perspectives on that topic are appreciated however, totally denying the impact that we have had is complete BS. that stems from denial or political affiliation (which is honestly even worse than straight up denial) sorry to mods if this needs to be cleaned up btw

i swear, reading this thread is like groundhog day sometimes

it's refreshing to see these blocked patterns begin to show up in the medium range. similar stuff happened last year

wow, the ECMWF is super aggressive with the weakening of the SPV early on. can't remember the last time i've seen a SPV potentially this weak to start a winter

kind of a wild trend. hopefully we see more of this in the coming months... it's getting far enough into autumn that it holds a bit of weight. we saw the same -NAO trends last winter

this is a pretty wild change near Japan since August. that heatwave is almost entirely wiped out... wondering if this is a change to a +PDO down the road, especially if we get a Nino next year

we might as well mention the cooling of the majority of the N PAC basin, especially near Japan and SW of the Aleutian Islands

you seem a bit traumatized, dude. -NAO blocking has been in place for pretty much all of NYC's largest storms. to say that Greenland blocking is not beneficial is untrue

one would think that a Nino developing next year would actually kick things positive for a stretch

I prefer to think of the AO as general blocking, the EPO as an Arctic cold index (independent on where it's going), the PNA as a modulator on where cold ends up in the CONUS, and the NAO as a big storm modifier, at least for NYC south. very difficult to get a MECS+ without a -NAO down here i've done research on preloading patterns and the -NAO really has no impact up by you. it's all forced by the Pacific, as you know (see Jan 2022, Jan 2015)

yeah, this fall is really reminding me of last fall so far. last year continues to be a pretty strong analog