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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    true. at least the antecedent airmass is better... hopefully we can get some height suppression beforehand, should be a beefy vort
  2. brooklynwx99
    GFS is explosive but I think it'll be tough to pull off... I think the 18th holds better potential with the 16th trying to act as some confluence
  3. brooklynwx99
    you can't even really forecast events that far in the future... you just kinda have to look at trends and the general longwave pattern and see how that goes. i don't think any respectable met would make a deterministic forecast more than 72 hours out
  4. brooklynwx99
    you're right. just kinda hard to take sometimes when someone's insulting your intelligence in that way. i worked my ass off for this lmao
  5. brooklynwx99
    i literally won most forecasting competitions in my classes at school and had a negative Z-score in WxChallenge. just stop it
  6. brooklynwx99
    lol the people at my job that I actually forecast for would beg to disagree. you're just an ass
  7. brooklynwx99
    what else is there to do? not analyze models? that's what we're here for
  8. brooklynwx99
    this is why we look at ensembles and not OP runs
  9. brooklynwx99
    well hey, it's trending that way right now
  10. brooklynwx99
    yeah i think that's the one to watch. very tough to get two waves in two days and the 18th has a more favorable config to work with
  11. brooklynwx99
    I like the second wave more, as is often the case... it doesn't have anything clawing at its back and the antecedent airmass is more favorable. that doesn't preclude the 16th, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the 18th like one of these is way more typically productive than the other
  12. brooklynwx99
    we trend
  13. brooklynwx99
    if you think what i said implies that i don’t think climate change is real and has an impact, you must be mistaken. the over attribution is just a lazy cop out most of the time
  14. brooklynwx99
    i’m sure New Orleans and Virginia snow weenies are loving climate change right now
  15. brooklynwx99
    seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot
  16. brooklynwx99
    seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot
  17. brooklynwx99
    god that is so close
  18. brooklynwx99
    lol you know you can get rain when a benchmark track now, right? and like 10 years ago? where do these people come from
  19. brooklynwx99
    yeah, this is the change you want to see. the NS needs to provide confluence, not try to phase in
  20. brooklynwx99
    well, this is exactly what you want to see, NS is acting as confluence and not interfering with the main wave
  21. brooklynwx99
    lol KUs don't grow on trees. of course you need all of those factors in place for something that should happen once a decade
  22. brooklynwx99
    March 2018 is the crown jewel of this kind of warming, everyone likes to bring that absurd MJO pulse up haha
  23. brooklynwx99
    there's really no reason why the pattern will just magically fall apart as we head into Feb... +EAMT should keep the jet extended along with tropical forcing moving into the CPAC the recently stronger SPV is also having zero impact, as the earlier SSW downwelled and is leading to a -AO that will persist into mid-late month. and if anything, a strong MJO pulse into phases 6 and 7 into Feb will encourage weakening of the SPV, potentially allowing for a SSW into mid-Feb. that's way out there, though
  24. brooklynwx99
    lol this kind of logic has only surfaced in the last few years
  25. brooklynwx99
    EPS has been trending towards a more amped trough in the SE, hopefully that continues and we can get a potent low. there was def a camp of amped EPS members last night
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