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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
wait until you see the euro -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
AIFS is pretty similar, no significant changes -
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I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now
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I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
i agree with you there. it's possible, but needs more support -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
OP is obv on the more amped side of its own ensemble (though they're more or less different models at this point after the GFS got upgraded) the GEFS itself is more amped compared to its 06z run -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
i said the same thing last night and I am lowkey shocked that the GFS amped up like that again -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
this is really low predictability... you have the NS vort digging and then buckling, you have another wave out west trying to dampen upstream heights, and then you have the issue of how the TPV impacts the trough. what a mess -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
yeah, it's been trending, as has the AIFS, which makes me feel a bit better CMC is snow showers, which is kinda hilarious. kind of in its own universe with the TPV -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
there’s just no way that’s right lmao i would like to see some more support -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
agreed, 16th isn't impossible, but would take some doing in its current presentation -
2025-2026 ENSO
brooklynwx99 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
yeah, nice to see that forcing move east into the CPAC and WHEM coinciding with the WWB taking place. should keep canonical Nina impacts at bay -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
this is literally full of condescension and yet, you are going to say that i was being insulting after you said that my degree was undeserved and unearned. I am going to stop responding to you, as I do not want to clutter this thread, but you should look at what you're doing here. it's really not cool -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
it was mentioned because my qualifications were questioned, as if the degree or title I earned was not deserved. it absolutely was -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
true. at least the antecedent airmass is better... hopefully we can get some height suppression beforehand, should be a beefy vort -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
GFS is explosive but I think it'll be tough to pull off... I think the 18th holds better potential with the 16th trying to act as some confluence -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
you can't even really forecast events that far in the future... you just kinda have to look at trends and the general longwave pattern and see how that goes. i don't think any respectable met would make a deterministic forecast more than 72 hours out
