brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the CPC forecast is based on the GEFS, which looks the same. those indices aren't really that useful since they provide no context
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why use your eyeballs and your brain to analyze the pattern when you can doom over some pressure calculation developed like 40 years ago?
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those index charts are such bullshit. this is a -NAO, full stop
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absolutely sickening weenie behavior. not all that much has changed since yesterday... there remains elevated potential for a significant storm from DC-NYC basically. details TBD
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looks like a Weeklies run lmao also the pattern is still well established at that time. block is maturing
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this is as robust as you will ever see the EPS
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comparing the two setups, this one is more favorable for a more potent storm. lower downstream heights in SE Canada help foster coastal redevelopment and a better thump
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comparing the two setups, this one is more favorable for front end snow for NYC. lower downstream heights in SE Canada help
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i mean yeah i get the skepticism but these probabilities are objectively ridiculous
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yeah, moves towards the typical KU pattern at that point
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ridiculous Arctic blocking on the GEFS
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that Arctic blocking is wow
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jesus
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why even bother talking about a potential pattern hiccup when this is on the horizon? lmao
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it looks temporary. not really worried about that
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luckily with this kind of thermal gradient you can get a significant event with like a 1015mb low
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lol
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also, big signal on the GEFS for the 12th
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this is your takeaway?
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the thing that's really wild about these runs is that they're prolific before the most favorable window, which is when the block rots. these runs have DC-NYC getting 1-2 feet through the 16th, which is when the block is still developing. the timeframe from the 16-23rd is when you'd expect to see the greatest shot at a true MECS so the fact that ensembles are showing 8-12" from NYC to DC without a well defined MECS signal is ridiculous
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the thing that's really wild about these runs is that they're prolific before the most favorable window, which is when the block rots. these runs have DC-NYC getting 1-2 feet through the 16th, which is when the block is still developing. the timeframe from the 16-23rd is when you'd expect to see the greatest shot at a true MECS so the fact that ensembles are showing 8-12" from NYC to DC without a well defined MECS signal is ridiculous
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depends...
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IMO this is more of a bottom-up event... the 50mb impacts on the stratosphere are more important for influencing the troposphere most of the time anyway, and a significant disruption is likely. the SPV stuff is only serving to bolster the tropospheric processes that will occur over the next two weeks
