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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    guidance is still screaming for the 24th as the Pacific trough retrogrades and the -NAO lessens
  2. brooklynwx99
    here's why I like the 24th... the Pacific trough retros and you have a big amplification signal downstream as the block decays and confluence lessens. it's a recipe for a big storm
  3. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF is sorta like a quicker version of the GFS. CMC is way more shredded than both
  4. brooklynwx99
    open flow, confluence, and southern stream vorts. cold air isn't an issue with an actual storm
  5. brooklynwx99
    love this look
  6. brooklynwx99
    CMC is setting up for later
  7. brooklynwx99
    bruh
  8. brooklynwx99
    my thought is "holy shit"
  9. brooklynwx99
    seems more like it dug its heels in
  10. brooklynwx99
    lmao the GFS is very amped, it just has more confluence. its progressive bias is not on display here
  11. brooklynwx99
    yeah I was not expecting it to really dig in like that. CMC did trend in that direction, just not as extreme
  12. brooklynwx99
    jesus brick wall of confluence. SNE about to get smoked
  13. brooklynwx99
    pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on
  14. brooklynwx99
    pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on
  15. brooklynwx99
    pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on
  16. brooklynwx99
    well yes, I'm just showing why it has what it has. I don't think it's correct
  17. brooklynwx99
    this is such an atrocious colorbar
  18. brooklynwx99
    just a note... the GFS is farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models is actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing
  19. brooklynwx99
    granted, it's farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models are actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing
  20. brooklynwx99
    like this is where it's at. really nice evolution here, and it makes sense PNA ridge spike, weakening block, and southern stream vort slips underneath the flow
  21. brooklynwx99
    potent signal as the Pacific trough retrogrades is still showing up. this is the best shot at a MECS IMO
  22. brooklynwx99
    years like 2010 and 2016 had a strong Pacific trough and potent STJ like this one. seeing blue colors off the WC isn't some death knell if you have blocking and Alaskan ridging
  23. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn't say that anything has gotten pushed back at all, it just looks like there's less spread along the WC. members differed on where to place the greatest positive anomalies, and they ended up more into AK, which is better for cold air supply, if anything the 50/50 ULL is also stronger. i don't see an issue here
  24. brooklynwx99
    whoops meant to say that the Pacific trough off the WC will retrograde into more of a typical Aleutian low. whatevs lmao
  25. brooklynwx99
    i'd probably lean towards a ECMWF/UKMET blend at this point, makes the most sense. CMC looks too diffuse and rainy while the GFS is likely too far south
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