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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    yeah, GFS made a material shift towards a euro-like solution, though i have a feeling that the euro’s overamplification bias may be showing
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah, these love to amp up the fluff factor with sloped 700-500mb FGEN on the NW side of the precip shield. that would likely verify 4-6” along that corridor
  3. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS is just going to do what the GFS does at this range
  4. brooklynwx99
    personally i’m wondering if there’s an inflection point where things blow up. 18z euro was teetering, honestly. we’ve been trending that way for a while model cycle now
  5. brooklynwx99
    euro is a nice moderate event, comes in more amped with the TPV leaning more southwest
  6. brooklynwx99
    could tell it was going to be more amped around here. PNA is better and heights are lower farther SW
  7. brooklynwx99
    yeah, vort really trying to buckle here
  8. brooklynwx99
    euro and CMC keep the main TPV lobe farther west, GFS and ICON have it leaking east which suppresses heights downstream
  9. brooklynwx99
    similarly nice changes on the EPS
  10. brooklynwx99
    if that vort moves hundreds of miles SW you have a MECS on your hands. not even exaggerating (not like that's going to happen)
  11. brooklynwx99
    with the GFS and CMC looking more amped and the ECMWF and AIFS largely holding serve, I think we're trending towards the first plowable snowfall of the year for the metro. let's give it a couple more days, but things are looking good
  12. brooklynwx99
    honestly, perfect recovery from 00z
  13. brooklynwx99
    if you get the TPV that amped, you can def get 6" of snowfall on 0.4" liquid. the fluff factor is usually strong with these systems
  14. brooklynwx99
    AIFS is a borderline SECS. TPV is more amped
  15. brooklynwx99
    CMC making the same shifts as the GFS. TPV is more favorably oriented
  16. brooklynwx99
    yeah, GFS made a shift towards the ECMWF with a more favorable TPV orientation
  17. brooklynwx99
    if you're talking about pure VP, there is literally almost always a standing wave there. like for decades
  18. brooklynwx99
    not surprising that we're seeing a warmer interlude with some -VP contaminating things in the IO and western MC. this quickly changes back to strong WHEM forcing in late Dec, likely signaling a flip back to a more favorable pattern after Christmas and into the New Year
  19. brooklynwx99
    lol are we really just tossing the most skilled guidance right now in favor of the GFS and CMC? if the euro showed rain and the GFS showed snow i'm sure that wouldn't happen
  20. brooklynwx99
    this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling
  21. brooklynwx99
    this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling
  22. brooklynwx99
    lol what a joke out west from the CMC
  23. brooklynwx99
    EPS and AIFS-EPS both perked up
  24. brooklynwx99
    same general premise as 1/6/22 if you recall. that was a nice little Arctic wave
  25. brooklynwx99
    this is why it’s sometimes not as simple as worse PNA -> weaker storm… the TPV is better oriented and allows the vort to curl more on the ECMWF
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