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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I like the second wave more, as is often the case... it doesn't have anything clawing at its back and the antecedent airmass is more favorable. that doesn't preclude the 16th, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the 18th like one of these is way more typically productive than the other
  2. brooklynwx99
    we trend
  3. brooklynwx99
    if you think what i said implies that i don’t think climate change is real and has an impact, you must be mistaken. the over attribution is just a lazy cop out most of the time
  4. brooklynwx99
    i’m sure New Orleans and Virginia snow weenies are loving climate change right now
  5. brooklynwx99
    seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot
  6. brooklynwx99
    seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot
  7. brooklynwx99
    god that is so close
  8. brooklynwx99
    lol you know you can get rain when a benchmark track now, right? and like 10 years ago? where do these people come from
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah, this is the change you want to see. the NS needs to provide confluence, not try to phase in
  10. brooklynwx99
    well, this is exactly what you want to see, NS is acting as confluence and not interfering with the main wave
  11. brooklynwx99
    lol KUs don't grow on trees. of course you need all of those factors in place for something that should happen once a decade
  12. brooklynwx99
    March 2018 is the crown jewel of this kind of warming, everyone likes to bring that absurd MJO pulse up haha
  13. brooklynwx99
    there's really no reason why the pattern will just magically fall apart as we head into Feb... +EAMT should keep the jet extended along with tropical forcing moving into the CPAC the recently stronger SPV is also having zero impact, as the earlier SSW downwelled and is leading to a -AO that will persist into mid-late month. and if anything, a strong MJO pulse into phases 6 and 7 into Feb will encourage weakening of the SPV, potentially allowing for a SSW into mid-Feb. that's way out there, though
  14. brooklynwx99
    lol this kind of logic has only surfaced in the last few years
  15. brooklynwx99
    EPS has been trending towards a more amped trough in the SE, hopefully that continues and we can get a potent low. there was def a camp of amped EPS members last night
  16. brooklynwx99
    also, more of a signal on the EPS for the 15th... makes sense with the PNA spike
  17. brooklynwx99
    lol for the love of god, please verify
  18. brooklynwx99
    if i took a shot every time i heard "fast flow" i would have been dead back in 2023
  19. brooklynwx99
    i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing
  20. brooklynwx99
    i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing
  21. brooklynwx99
    i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing up
  22. brooklynwx99
    probably should have specified the 5-10th but whatever, cold and dry doesn’t do much for me anyway
  23. brooklynwx99
    i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS
  24. brooklynwx99
    i don't know how much we can really move this closer given the lead time, but it's getting a bit precarious
  25. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it really has been like that recently... i can think of multiple times in the last few years. when you're cold, you're cold
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