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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. if you get the TPV that amped, you can def get 6" of snowfall on 0.4" liquid. the fluff factor is usually strong with these systems
  2. CMC making the same shifts as the GFS. TPV is more favorably oriented
  3. yeah, GFS made a shift towards the ECMWF with a more favorable TPV orientation
  4. if you're talking about pure VP, there is literally almost always a standing wave there. like for decades
  5. not surprising that we're seeing a warmer interlude with some -VP contaminating things in the IO and western MC. this quickly changes back to strong WHEM forcing in late Dec, likely signaling a flip back to a more favorable pattern after Christmas and into the New Year
  6. lol are we really just tossing the most skilled guidance right now in favor of the GFS and CMC? if the euro showed rain and the GFS showed snow i'm sure that wouldn't happen
  7. this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling
  8. this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling
  9. same general premise as 1/6/22 if you recall. that was a nice little Arctic wave
  10. this is why it’s sometimes not as simple as worse PNA -> weaker storm… the TPV is better oriented and allows the vort to curl more on the ECMWF
  11. this is why it’s sometimes not as simple as worse PNA -> weaker storm… the TPV is better oriented and allows the vort to curl more
  12. the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later
  13. AIFS ENS actually looks pretty nice. I feel like this is more likely given the tropical forcing but who knows
  14. isn’t most of the warmth forecasting on this forum persistence forecasting? lmao
  15. ECMWF with a pretty significant improvement with heights out west. went from nothing to something
  16. thermal gradient aloft is pretty impressive so you really just a little bit of 500mb forcing
  17. nice Arctic wave. seeing the PNA get a bit better is a plus
  18. what would you consider “this?” i’d think there’s still a good bit of regression and generally unfavorable -ENSO/-PDO type stuff going on as well along with the compression you always mention
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