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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    these are also means that we're looking at... it wouldn't be shocking that there's some washing out ongoing for example. members that don't develop a strong -NAO are likely complete torches with very high E US heights. however, ones that do, and especially the ones that shift the block more west, might actually just have a cold airmass in the east. wish there was a way to look at EPS members like that
  2. brooklynwx99
    story of the last few years. one would have to hope that: 1) the Bering Sea ridge ticks east more into AK so you can get a bit of a ridge bridge going, or 2) the -NAO becomes stronger and more west based, shifting that ridge west along with it (also allowing for more of a ridge bridge) we have also seen models consistently overdo E US heights, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a trough trend deeper as we head closer. we'll see
  3. brooklynwx99
    that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west
  4. brooklynwx99
    that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west
  5. brooklynwx99
    ehh, 2016 was not luck. there was a very strong west-based -NAO that developed, which is a classic KU signal
  6. brooklynwx99
    sir, this is a La Nina
  7. brooklynwx99
    yeah, i'm pretty confident that we're going to see the NAO drop rather significantly as the Scandi / N ATL trough retrogrades... the WH MJO forcing is a strong precursor to that, as it helps wavebreaking occur in the N ATL
  8. brooklynwx99
    EPS is pretty active after the 22nd or so... there will be chances but it's shut the blinds for the next week
  9. brooklynwx99
    luckily we don't live at 500mb and there can easily be a CAD setup around Christmas with the NW-SE oriented TPV providing confluence
  10. brooklynwx99
    this looks like more than a minor snowfall for most of the metro, honestly. solid WAA with warning criteria likely even being approached in CNJ and parts of LI
  11. brooklynwx99
    that configuration with low heights diving into the N ATL like that from SE Canada is pretty typical of retrograding -NAO events. would line up well with the lag from the SSW we had in late Nov @Stormchaserchuck1
  12. brooklynwx99
    wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if this was partially due to the persistent SPV disruptions and SSW that we've seen over the last three weeks. ensembles are definitely picking up on a wavebreaking -NAO signal with some retrograding Scandi / N ATL high pressure
  13. brooklynwx99
    EPS has really been buckling the trough more in recent runs
  14. brooklynwx99
    definitely seeing a solid trend towards more buckling of the trough, leading to a bump north with precip. i'm thinking that NYC's looking at 2-4"... might honestly be more like 3-6" at this rate. we'll see if these trends persist. if so, we're looking at more of the latter range
  15. brooklynwx99
    merry torchmas!!!
  16. brooklynwx99
    the EPS shows this colder wedging pretty well. might be a bit overdone, but I doubt really torches from NYC north. hell, New England can even see some mixed systems
  17. brooklynwx99
    last time I checked, though, most people don't life 5000 feet above the surface, let alone 15000 feet. if it's NN to BN at the surface in the NE at times, nobody will care if it's +20F over some barren cornfield in NE
  18. brooklynwx99
    yeah, not really a torch pattern with the -WPO encroaching into AK and the TPV elongated like that. sure, it's a torch for 75% of the CONUS, but who cares
  19. brooklynwx99
    you know, some of you keep giving that guy a platform by breathlessly posting about him. we know he sucks
  20. brooklynwx99
    the GFS just has to be tossed assuming the ECMWF holds steady. it is awful with these anafront type systems and is almost always too progressive with them we’re still on track for plowable snowfall in the metro IMO
  21. brooklynwx99
    lol Webb going on his weenie crusade when he hypes just as much as literally everyone else on that platform
  22. brooklynwx99
    meanwhile, RGEM is coming in even more amped lmao
  23. brooklynwx99
    just a classic post-2016 NYC metro subforum exchange about the RGEM lmao
  24. brooklynwx99
    gotta love the GFS suite
  25. brooklynwx99
    why even bother with snowmaps? use liquid and then apply 10:1 or slightly above / below depending on DGZ and dynamics. this event would produce 12-15:1 pretty easily on the northern end of the precip shield; these events usually do so
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