Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,596

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    trust me, I get what you're saying... I just think we need to give this another several years to really make legit conclusions on it. the sample size is just too low, especially for commenting on the efficacy of Ninos at large. we just don't have enough data
  2. brooklynwx99
    I think this is recency bias. 2016 produced one of the biggest HECS in history and 2018-19 was literally weak sauce from the get-go
  3. brooklynwx99
    my point is that all of this broad scale stuff about the state of winters to come for the next decade or whatever shouldn't be looked at as anything more than pure speculation. the declarative statements are a bit grating
  4. brooklynwx99
    lol that is the nature of the weather, dude. nobody really knows what's going to happen. also doesn't help that the two legit Ninos that we had were either the strongest ever or still super. one of them produced the largest EC storm in 30 years
  5. brooklynwx99
    lol dude it is a smoothed +2 meter anomaly. come on
  6. brooklynwx99
    yeah, there definitely is no comparison. there is a much higher frequency of larger storms than there ever was in those decades. LI was also a lot less snowy. unless you guys want nickel and dime winters with 10-20" of snow
  7. brooklynwx99
    the Jan 2018 bomb cyclone could have done it if it was just closer to the coast. was a triple phaser like 250 miles offshore and still brought major snow
  8. brooklynwx99
    yeah we've dealt with worse. this is a crappy stretch, don't get me wrong, but we also just had 2020-21 and likely have some more winters that break that 30" mark in the future soon enough
  9. brooklynwx99
    i think people are forgetting that there have been similarly lame stretches. yes, we don't get the 10-20" years as much, but who cares KNYC had one winter with over 30" from 1969-70 through 1993-94. one! that is an absolutely dry stretch. we have had 13 such winters since 2000
  10. brooklynwx99
    probably best to let things play out. wouldn’t be surprising to see a -NAO form from a retrograding Scandi high around the 10-15th or so. it’s been showing up on ensembles not saying it’s going to produce winter weather, but there’s no real point in ruling it out totally at this range
  11. brooklynwx99
    really would not be shocking to see a Scandi ridge -NAO pop up around the 10-15th or so. if it produces winter weather is to be seen, but it’s something
  12. brooklynwx99
    i never said it verified. it busted pretty bad. but to say that the can has been kicked the whole winter is quite disingenuous some saw two significant events in a week… the immediate NYC area isn’t representative of the whole metro region
  13. brooklynwx99
    some places in central NJ got 20” of snow in a week. stop it lmao
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it'll be an uphill battle to get snow, but it's happened before. 1998 and 1983 both had abnormal snowfalls... 1983 had this in the southeast during the last week of March
  15. brooklynwx99
    you can see the resemblance to the patterns before the 2018 and 2023 blocking events. pretty similar stuff
  16. brooklynwx99
    wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in some fashion in mid-late March. a brief reversal of 10mb winds already occurred, and another is expected to occur during the first week of March. the upcoming 500mb pattern fits that of the 2018 and 2023 blocking events quite well, which were also from SSWs. not sure if it means any more winter weather, but it's something to note
  17. brooklynwx99
    it wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in mid to late March. whether that means winter weather or not is a different story, but it wouldn't be surprising at all IMO
  18. brooklynwx99
    look at the decade before with the 33.2" average and you can see why we likely regress to under the ~29" 30-year average this decade
  19. brooklynwx99
    hell, even that favorable pattern in mid-Jan looked like a good Nina configuration. AK ridge with no Aleutian low to be found. along with the historic cold outbreak in the Rockies and Plains. so odd
  20. brooklynwx99
    1973 was definitely the best match out of those winters, especially given the -PDO. even then, there's still barely any low pressure signature where there should be one. would have made a difference if the blocking had worked out, but it makes sense that we would see one of the biggest medium to long range pattern collapses in recent memory
  21. brooklynwx99
    lol the Aleutian / Gulf of AK low is non-existent. absolutely infuriating. just not even close to the others, even the ones that did torch
  22. brooklynwx99
    PDO definitely has something to do with it, just thought the Nino would be a bigger factor in forcing a +PNA
  23. brooklynwx99
    all of the other super Ninos had at least some kind of persistent low pressure in the GoA or nearby. seems like 1973 was the best fit, but this year still has much less of a signature there
  24. brooklynwx99
    hell, even the great pattern that developed in mid-Jan looked like a blocky Nina pattern. there was a historic cold outbreak in the Rockies, which is not supposed to happen in these borderline super Ninos. something is off this might look like a super Nino on the DJF temp aggregate, but it's like getting a multiple choice answer right without showing work. Dec is the only stretch that behaved like it should have. like where the hell is the low in the GoAK or Aleutians at all? it just doesn't exist on the mean
  25. brooklynwx99
    this is so odd... flat, strong Aleutian high in a super Nino at the end of Feb. even the warm stretches in 1973 and 1983 were warm because of a hyperactive Gulf of AK low, not because of a potent Aleutian ridge
×
×
  • Create New...