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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    euro and CMC keep the main TPV lobe farther west, GFS and ICON have it leaking east which suppresses heights downstream
  2. brooklynwx99
    similarly nice changes on the EPS
  3. brooklynwx99
    if that vort moves hundreds of miles SW you have a MECS on your hands. not even exaggerating (not like that's going to happen)
  4. brooklynwx99
    with the GFS and CMC looking more amped and the ECMWF and AIFS largely holding serve, I think we're trending towards the first plowable snowfall of the year for the metro. let's give it a couple more days, but things are looking good
  5. brooklynwx99
    honestly, perfect recovery from 00z
  6. brooklynwx99
    if you get the TPV that amped, you can def get 6" of snowfall on 0.4" liquid. the fluff factor is usually strong with these systems
  7. brooklynwx99
    AIFS is a borderline SECS. TPV is more amped
  8. brooklynwx99
    CMC making the same shifts as the GFS. TPV is more favorably oriented
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah, GFS made a shift towards the ECMWF with a more favorable TPV orientation
  10. brooklynwx99
    if you're talking about pure VP, there is literally almost always a standing wave there. like for decades
  11. brooklynwx99
    not surprising that we're seeing a warmer interlude with some -VP contaminating things in the IO and western MC. this quickly changes back to strong WHEM forcing in late Dec, likely signaling a flip back to a more favorable pattern after Christmas and into the New Year
  12. brooklynwx99
    lol are we really just tossing the most skilled guidance right now in favor of the GFS and CMC? if the euro showed rain and the GFS showed snow i'm sure that wouldn't happen
  13. brooklynwx99
    this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling
  14. brooklynwx99
    this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling
  15. brooklynwx99
    lol what a joke out west from the CMC
  16. brooklynwx99
    EPS and AIFS-EPS both perked up
  17. brooklynwx99
    same general premise as 1/6/22 if you recall. that was a nice little Arctic wave
  18. brooklynwx99
    this is why it’s sometimes not as simple as worse PNA -> weaker storm… the TPV is better oriented and allows the vort to curl more on the ECMWF
  19. brooklynwx99
    this is why it’s sometimes not as simple as worse PNA -> weaker storm… the TPV is better oriented and allows the vort to curl more
  20. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later
  21. brooklynwx99
    AIFS ENS actually looks pretty nice. I feel like this is more likely given the tropical forcing but who knows
  22. brooklynwx99
    isn’t most of the warmth forecasting on this forum persistence forecasting? lmao
  23. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF with a pretty significant improvement with heights out west. went from nothing to something
  24. brooklynwx99
    thermal gradient aloft is pretty impressive so you really just a little bit of 500mb forcing
  25. brooklynwx99
    nice Arctic wave. seeing the PNA get a bit better is a plus
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