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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the lack of a prolonged SPV disruption lessens the risk of blocking this month... maybe late, but who knows this far out overall, looks pretty meh for the Northeast into mid-late month. the -WPO and TPV in Canada should continue to present snowfall risks, especially into New England, but large storms look unlikely as long as the NAO remains positive and the PNA negative should see the PNA rise later on in the month as the MJO continues to progress
  2. brooklynwx99
    you usually get the wave breaking needed for -NAO when you get a huge cutter... you usually need -PNA to accomplish this
  3. brooklynwx99
    honest question, is it possible for models in the 1-2 week range to show a pattern that you will actually get excited about?
  4. brooklynwx99
    sure, we can play Monday morning QB and say "nooooo those patterns were actually bad because they didn't produce snow!" but that's disingenuous
  5. brooklynwx99
    not to harp on last year, but models actually did a good job showing the amount of high latitude blocking that developed. to say that a good pattern never developed is just incorrect
  6. brooklynwx99
    explain to me how the pattern from last year never developed. i want receipts
  7. brooklynwx99
    you are just full of surprises
  8. brooklynwx99
    can you post some ensembles to back up your point? or just anything, really
  9. brooklynwx99
    this is a pretty obvious P8 signal. there is very little, if any forcing showing up on the EPS over the Maritime Continent
  10. brooklynwx99
    the PV closer to us has been perturbed already. seems like this should couple pretty well
  11. brooklynwx99
    honest question, why are you even on twitter? I avoid twitter like the plague there are enough knowledgeable people here
  12. brooklynwx99
    the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid
  13. brooklynwx99
    can pretty easily see the N ATL trough feeding back on the Scandi ridge, which then increases heights in the NAO region... this elongates and presses the TPV south
  14. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is just a day or two slower. it gets to the same point with a -NAO developing thanks to Scandi ridging (which is typical of SSW events)
  15. brooklynwx99
    really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region
  16. brooklynwx99
    really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region
  17. brooklynwx99
    really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region
  18. brooklynwx99
    like this is just a fail. the stronger Pacific jet actually helps in Ninas most of the time, not hurts
  19. brooklynwx99
    that's transient. models have vastly underdone the cold spell near Thanksgiving already and whatever brief warmup occurs around the start of the month won't last long
  20. brooklynwx99
    can see heights rising out west at the end as well as the Atlantic pattern becoming blockier
  21. brooklynwx99
    meh. I find that hard to believe given the coupled SSW and MJO progression. should get quite favorable after the 10th, not the other way around
  22. brooklynwx99
    lol
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah, given how coupled the stratosphere is, I don't think we're on voodoo alert with the nearly certain SSW... we should see an Atlantic blocking spell this month
  24. brooklynwx99
    that EPO isn't a waste, though. always good to have Arctic air nearby so you get a quick flip and cold source region
  25. brooklynwx99
    my guess is that the pattern becomes better for most after the 5th
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