brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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yup, I will reassess in 2030 or so. the sample size is just too small and we could get blasted a few times to close the decade for all anyone knows. people also thought the massive WC ridges from 2013-15 were going to be the new norm. how laughable that seems now
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i mean, it is, but 48 hours is a bit much. the models capitulated and it totally blew, but it was at 120-144 hours out. that happens. we're in agreement that it would be a different story if we were inside of three days god, i can't wait for an effective El Nino. hopefully next year
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that's kinda silly. that attitude is borne out of frustration rather than anything scientific
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yup, some people never understand that good patterns just increase the odds for snow, not guarantee it. we literally just saw that play out this week!
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anything of substance to add? no? no wonder why mets barely post here anymore. doesn't seem to be an issue in other subforums
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we'll have more chances into March. cold with -AO/-EPO persisting
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yeah, it is absolutely not over
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I'm banking on shorter wavelengths and a weak WAR to help us out here
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this is quite a bit healthier. like seeing the -AO over the top too. pretty solid
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@Rjay lol -
the upper air pattern absolutely supported a large storm. that's what's so brutal about it. the "background state" stuff is bordering on pseudoscience. nobody can even truly explain what they mean when they say it
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yeah, my guess is it has something to do with climate change. maybe higher velocities are messing with modeling or something like that. combine that with higher res, as you said, and it's a recipe for large swings though Feb 2021 was modeled very well and i can't imagine CC has accelerated that much in the last 4 years to mess with modeling that much. I don't want to overattribute either
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pattern is about as good as it gets. every model had a MECS with the GFS joining the party 120 hours out and the EPS locked in. gone in 12 hours. it's just cruel at this point
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i know people unrightfully bash models, but I'm going to. absolutely appalling performance from D5. should not happen
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AIFS is actually a hit. shocked
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EPS was a pretty notable improvement. stronger ULL and less confluence
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almost certainly. probably some weird double barrel action in there too that leads to the model plotting the center east
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ULL more amped too
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it looks more consolidated with less confluence. should improve
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pretty notable improvement. this is teetering on a knife’s edge
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FWIW, 18z was a start. this is a nice change with less destructive interference out west and a more amped ULL
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that isn't all that surprising at this range
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so much better
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given that the AIFS is a machine learning model and it does not have much of a frame of reference for this kind of setup, it's no surprise that it would struggle
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lol
