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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the vort trending more amplified is actually good… we get mid level forcing along with the WAA, allowing for more liquid initially (which is when most of the snow falls, anyway)
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah, would angle it more NW-SE than that map implies
  3. brooklynwx99
    i would go with 2-4” here in Morristown and 3-6” in the city. def could be on the low side, but would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed it’s been a while since we’ve been looking at potential warning snowfall in the city in the middle of the holiday season. everyone in the metro should enjoy
  4. brooklynwx99
    NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous
  5. brooklynwx99
    gotta be near the mixing line to get the best snow
  6. brooklynwx99
    really looking good for the metro’s first warning level snow in quite some time. we can see 1-2”/hr rates as FGEN pushes in during the evening, especially NW towards 287
  7. brooklynwx99
    same exact thing happened last year, though it was even more impressive with a lack of a SSW. gives more credence to prolonged blocking with the EPS reloading in the LR
  8. brooklynwx99
    that isn’t even the animation of the run though, that’s the trend for the same valid time. it’s so drastic it looks like the same run
  9. brooklynwx99
    can also see the jet beginning to extend in the LR as another MJO wave traverses the MC along with strengthening +EAMT... as this wave enters the WHEM in mid-late Jan, we might have another favorable period
  10. brooklynwx99
    lol this is an absurd shift
  11. brooklynwx99
    this is pretty comical. NYE is now a legit timeframe to watch with that amplifying trough
  12. brooklynwx99
    really likes the NYE timeframe. has the TPV take a trip south and boom
  13. brooklynwx99
    lol at this trend in the Pacific. went from an AK trough of doom to legit +PNA
  14. brooklynwx99
    there is a nearly 3 sigma -NAO developing as this system moves in, so I would argue that blocking is indeed very strong
  15. brooklynwx99
    EPS continues to tick colder. mean is about 4" for NYC i generally like this kind of event... shove moisture into HP and you usually have success
  16. brooklynwx99
    lol
  17. brooklynwx99
    this is a potent setup
  18. brooklynwx99
    really easy to see how Friday's system trending colder and farther south increases the blocking due to stronger wave breaking, which then leads to a more favorable outcome for Monday if the block keeps trending in this way, Monday might hold some high end potential, especially up by you guys. TBD
  19. brooklynwx99
    really easy to see how Friday's system trending colder and farther south increases the blocking due to stronger wave breaking, which then leads to a more favorable outcome for Monday if the block keeps trending in this way, Monday might hold some high end potential, especially up by you guys. TBD
  20. brooklynwx99
    CMC is proof of that... more confluence -> farther south system Friday -> stronger block -> nuke Monday due to farther south ULL
  21. brooklynwx99
    yup, and the confluence trending stronger for Friday strengthens the block, which helps Sunday trend better. just a series of dominoes
  22. brooklynwx99
    yeah, would be nice to get Friday and then maybe some better potential next week all I know is that if you get that strong and west based enough, dumb shit will happen. almost always does when you have a block that big. it isn't there yet, as the main vort tracks through the lakes, but it wouldn't take a lot to change that if you weaken that Pacific trough or retro it more
  23. brooklynwx99
    this is absolutely pitiful lmao next week could end up legit if that block keeps uptrending
  24. brooklynwx99
    pretty legit trend in the confluence for late week. Fri-Sat is def a timeframe to watch for a legit thump
  25. brooklynwx99
    pretty legit trend in the confluence for late week. Fri-Sat is def a timeframe to watch for a legit thump
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