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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    my thinking as of now is that the El Nino will take a foothold on the pattern as we head into autumn, but we will see. as you know, coupling is always pretty weak in the summer
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah, leaning on the 2015-16 or 1982-83 outcomes right now
  3. brooklynwx99
    my hunch is that there won't be much in terms of number of events but the boom potential always goes up in these years. HECS and nothing else is a distinct possibility think 1982-83 and 2015-16 (which are both good analogs)
  4. brooklynwx99
    1982-83 and 2015-16 are probably my favorite analogs as of now
  5. brooklynwx99
    nah i mean we're likely looking at a warm winter for most anyway
  6. brooklynwx99
    waiting until the spring barrier passes to make an ENSO forecast is pretty standard. I said a couple weeks ago that we are probably getting a super event and that a strong event was likely in early April. not sure what the issue is there
  7. brooklynwx99
    also, let's be real, the only reason why this thread gets 95% of the traffic it does is because of the impact on the following winter, which carries the largest correlation to ENSO, anyway. i doubt anybody cares about the SW monsoon (aside from Raindance) or eastern Pacific algal blooms
  8. brooklynwx99
    these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98
  9. brooklynwx99
    there was also a major block that was poorly forecasted in February... one of the worst pattern busts I've ever seen. if that occurred, things would have turned out a whole lot differently that month
  10. brooklynwx99
    just messing. i agree that we're probably getting a super Nino this year
  11. brooklynwx99
    mario ramirez super nino
  12. brooklynwx99
    if we go the super route, I actually like 1982-83 quite a bit
  13. brooklynwx99
    for the record, this should be a strong Nino per ONI and even RONI, but taking those +2.5C euro forecasts in early April to heart is silly. wait a couple of months and see if it sticks. the euro has overdone many a Nino in the past
  14. brooklynwx99
    gotta pass the spring barrier. this is like a 10 day EPS forecast but for ENSO at this point in the year
  15. brooklynwx99
    hey, give me a loaded STJ and temps that aren't an abject torch and I'd like to see what happens now that we're in a paradigm of blockier winters. 2023-24 was cursed and I think people are scared about an outcome like that. I find it unlikely, there are much better analogs
  16. brooklynwx99
    paul roundy super Nino part 2?
  17. brooklynwx99
    every model has the signal mid-month, worth watching for sure with the ridge rising out west. airmass is better than you'd think with the PV nearby
  18. brooklynwx99
    classic spring swing here
  19. brooklynwx99
    the snow blitzes this winter are just as much a part of CC as the warm bursts IMO
  20. brooklynwx99
    incredible storm, about 13.5" here
  21. brooklynwx99
    9" and some of the heaviest snow i have ever seen
  22. brooklynwx99
    hang it in the Lourve. absolutely sick
  23. brooklynwx99
    really incredible stuff. the low is just getting started
  24. brooklynwx99
    absolute cinema. this will be special for the area
  25. brooklynwx99
    rippage about to occur over the next hour
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