brooklynwx99

yeah, this fall is really reminding me of last fall so far. last year continues to be a pretty strong analog

the S/W becoming more amplified over WI leads to increased phasing down the line. the entire tilt of the trough is more negative as a result, leading to a much more tucked and amplified system. this is a solid example of looking at 500mb ensemble trends to see how phasing impacts storm track. with all major ensembles on board inside of D5 (CMC was holding out a bit yesterday and this morning), confidence in this system making significant impacts is a good bit higher

since I almost exclusively use analogs since 2000 with only a few in the 90s, I think the 91-20 climo is okay to use

yeah, not the best job

that's going to flip back over the next couple of weeks with the anomalous ridge developing there

in recent years? when has it ever not been tough to maintain a -EPO indefinitely?

I can assure you, when we do get a good winter from NYC south, I doubt anyone will have actually forecasted it beforehand. including myself

i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar

yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch

is it really? we had four 50"+ winters out of six from 2009-10 to 2014-15. it was ridiculous we also had similarly crappy stretches in the 70s-90s, we just had a lot more 10-15" winters than the single digit ones (not all that much better IMO)

i earnestly believe that some of what's been occurring for the last few years is regression to the mean that 20 year stretch was insane... NYC averaged 34" of snow from 2002-03 to 2020-21. that was not going to last

although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns

looking at RONI, the MJJ this year is -0.4 and last year it was -0.45. i also don't take the N ATL SSTs into account all that much, I find correlations with our weather pretty weak. even though the heatwave near Japan is stronger, the SSTs off the WC are also higher, so the PDO is about the same. if anything, it was more consistently under -3 last year overall, I think there are a lot of big picture similarities. I don't like to get too granular with LR forecasting

looking at the 500mb patterns over the last two summers, last year is a good match... had the same +NAO/+AO as well as the dual ridges over the western and eastern US. last year is also a good PDO, solar, and overall ENSO match as well. I think it holds a good bit of weight

I'm a fan of the EP Nina look showing up. most seasonals keep the EP Nina into the winter, which would bode well for EC cold/snow prospects overall

i wouldn't say that considering that -EPO and some +PNA is favored. definitely doesn't look like a disaster

this is what i'm thinking for the winter pattern this year when looking at preliminary analogs. overall, I think we'll be looking at a winter with lots of ridging over the WC (or least nearby), likely pushing poleward into AK and north of Siberia, promoting -EPO and +PNA. this will displace the TPV SE at times, and although a SE ridge likely shows in the mean, it's likely suppressed for a decent portion of the winter Dec can feature some blocking, aided by the -QBO. I think the blocking certainly eases by Feb, but even then, the propensity for +PNA/-EPO should prevent a full on torch in the East. Jan is likely more +PNA driven, becoming warmer late in the month my main reasoning is that we're going to enter into a cool neutral ENSO state (weak Nina per RONI), and it's increasingly likely that the Nina influence will be more east-based, allowing for more ridging into the WC and AK rather than a flat ridge over the NPAC. we're also looking at high solar, a -QBO, and a -PDO overall, my top analogs are 2024-25, 2021-22, 2001-02, and 1989-90 (I don't think we'll see an AK vortex like 2001-02, but it scored well with ENSO, PDO, and solar). I think the best analog for this winter is last winter, as the ENSO, PDO, solar, and similarities to last summer's pattern are hard to ignore temps are slightly AN in the east with solidly BN precip (though it shouldn't be quite as dry as last winter)

with variance due to climate change, I would argue that the large storms that do occur, even with lower frequency, would be bigger than the ones that we've classically seen. 2016 wouldn't have been quite as impactful 30 years ago

I suppose you can say that the Pacific jet helped the for parts of the MA and South then, which saw snowfall far above normal last winter

it isn't. last year is actually the best analog that i've found

although the PDO is exceedingly negative right now and must be accounted for in winter forecasts, I wouldn't lose tooooo much sleep over it given the anticipated -EPO pattern, especially in Dec/Jan. we could very easily see behavior similar to last year where it ended up closer to neutral as the winter went on... we're likely going to see a bounce upwards with the way SSTs are behaving right now