brooklynwx99

i wouldn't say that considering that -EPO and some +PNA is favored. definitely doesn't look like a disaster

this is what i'm thinking for the winter pattern this year when looking at preliminary analogs. overall, I think we'll be looking at a winter with lots of ridging over the WC (or least nearby), likely pushing poleward into AK and north of Siberia, promoting -EPO and +PNA. this will displace the TPV SE at times, and although a SE ridge likely shows in the mean, it's likely suppressed for a decent portion of the winter Dec can feature some blocking, aided by the -QBO. I think the blocking certainly eases by Feb, but even then, the propensity for +PNA/-EPO should prevent a full on torch in the East. Jan is likely more +PNA driven, becoming warmer late in the month my main reasoning is that we're going to enter into a cool neutral ENSO state (weak Nina per RONI), and it's increasingly likely that the Nina influence will be more east-based, allowing for more ridging into the WC and AK rather than a flat ridge over the NPAC. we're also looking at high solar, a -QBO, and a -PDO overall, my top analogs are 2024-25, 2021-22, 2001-02, and 1989-90 (I don't think we'll see an AK vortex like 2001-02, but it scored well with ENSO, PDO, and solar). I think the best analog for this winter is last winter, as the ENSO, PDO, solar, and similarities to last summer's pattern are hard to ignore temps are slightly AN in the east with solidly BN precip (though it shouldn't be quite as dry as last winter)

with variance due to climate change, I would argue that the large storms that do occur, even with lower frequency, would be bigger than the ones that we've classically seen. 2016 wouldn't have been quite as impactful 30 years ago

I suppose you can say that the Pacific jet helped the for parts of the MA and South then, which saw snowfall far above normal last winter

it isn't. last year is actually the best analog that i've found

although the PDO is exceedingly negative right now and must be accounted for in winter forecasts, I wouldn't lose tooooo much sleep over it given the anticipated -EPO pattern, especially in Dec/Jan. we could very easily see behavior similar to last year where it ended up closer to neutral as the winter went on... we're likely going to see a bounce upwards with the way SSTs are behaving right now

ECMWF seasonal is pretty close to what myself and some others are thinking... pretty solid tendency for -EPO early on with the TPV likely displaced into SE Canada at times. also a bit of a signal for blocking early on, too? wouldn't be shocking with the -QBO sure, it likely ends up 1-2F AN, but nothing prohibitive, and there will be spells where the pattern is actually conducive for snowfall. i'll take it

from what i've seen, last winter looks like a really good analog for this one. when taking all relevant years into account, there should be a decent amount of poleward AK ridging with some blocking potential early on. however, Feb looks warm and should push the winter's temps AN

from what I noticed while forecasting last winter, it was pretty damn windy with all of the NW flow days... I'd imagine the reason why it felt much colder was because daytime highs were typically cold for those troughy patterns and you got much less of those radiational cooling nights that really tank temps, keeping minimums up

wouldn't be surprising if we had another -EPO dominant winter with intervals of blocking. still some -PNA, obviously. likely AN temps in the mean, but we'll probably have some colder intervals with blocking... overall, doesn't seem like too much of a deviation from last winter's vibe, which I would run back and see if the dice can roll a bit better

there was a span of time where pretty much every KU pattern hit from like 2016 through 2021, and people got spoiled and thought that would continue... I am one of those people and have tried to remove that bias. it just happened so often that it was easy to assume that kind of loaded WB -NAO pattern would give a 75-90% hit rate - in reality it's much lower

CC is absolutely a factor, that is not a debate. snowfall is just so prone to variance and we came off of such a torrid stretch that I want to give it another 10 year span to make sure that this isn't just regression to the mean. it'll probably be 75% bust, 25% boom seasons from here on out with very little in the way of true average

agreed, that was always the main issue with that setup and made it a lot more precarious. if it had a true +PNA, easy KU. one could attribute that to CC, but we were never going to see perfect +PNAs with every setup. I think a lot of it is regression to the mean i agree with you that if this is still happening in a decade, it's time to have a serious convo

yeah, that did not help. what was interesting was I remember the PNA ridge trending "better" as the event moved up, but the ULL deteriorated to the point that it didn't matter. just kinda became messy because of weird ULL stuff. they're finicky, always have been

I think part of it is that back in the 2000s and 2010s, most KU setups delivered (March 2018 is a great example), and now we're seeing some flies in the ointment. sure, some of those failure modes are popping up more and more because of CC, but I think we got a bit spoiled, so now a block pops up and everyone expects a KU (I am personally guilty of this and am trying to remove this bias) mid-Feb easily could have occurred, the ULL just became a bit sloppy and the system became more disorganized... it still delivered historic snow to VA beach, and there was also a once in a lifetime Gulf Coast storm

I don't think there's any legitimate way that the 2013-15 +PDO could be viewed as a "three year cycle" or whatever. there have been numerous instances of +PDO in -PDO cycles and vice versa since the 40s. it's nothing new. you can see the same thing in the late 50s, late 80s, and the mid-2000s. IMO it's just authors trying to rationalize typical variance as a broader consequence of climate change

the Southeast and southern MA is loving climate change right now

the heights over British Columbia are higher again

simple, the GFS is tallest with the ridge out west and allows the NS to have better momentum

the CMC and UKMET are also much better looking out west. I am definitely taking the GFS with a grain of salt but it's not that far off, and the PNA has been trending better for a while now

FWIW the CMC did make some nice shifts synoptically

the trend with the PNA over the last model cycle has been pretty nice. went from a trough to a full latitude ridge on the GEFS over BC

agreed, though the trend for more -NAO probably does limit the extent of the warmth