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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it’s just way more consolidated with the vort as it moves through the Plains and Midwest
  2. brooklynwx99
    GFS on an island… usually ends only one way
  3. brooklynwx99
    even with said AK vortex (which seems suspect), it’s still cold with a -NAO popping up. this would still be serviceable for a while, and this seems like the worst case scenario through the 10th. EPS and GEPS are much colder with +PNA
  4. brooklynwx99
    i like to use the GEPS as a bit of a tiebreaker in these instances… def more EPS-like like seeing that -NAO over the top, really helps out
  5. brooklynwx99
    i’m fine with leaning a certain way based on certain reasoning. you’ll be wrong at that range sometimes, it is what it is the storm also hasn’t verified, though
  6. brooklynwx99
    this just looks like twitter engagement bait. every MJO forecast has another wave propagating into 8… those plots just don’t go out far enough
  7. brooklynwx99
  8. brooklynwx99
    personally, given the pattern, i would find something suppressed and washed out more likely than something as amped as the GFS
  9. brooklynwx99
    way more likely that the mid-week system is a POS than something amped and rainy IMO
  10. brooklynwx99
    don't worry, if it's wrong, it'll tick 10 miles NW at a time for twenty runs in a row
  11. brooklynwx99
    i like seeing the more consolidated trough along with the deeper press from the TPV into Maine on the 06z
  12. brooklynwx99
    I agree that they don’t look as good… given the MJO progression, I feel like the EPS makes more sense. we’ll see
  13. brooklynwx99
    Pacific jet is trending more equatorward towards mid-month, leading to a better wave break and more poleward ridging near AK… this makes sense given the MJO
  14. brooklynwx99
    true. I think that Pacific trough is transient as the momentum from the poleward jet extension pushes into AK. then, as the MJO continues progressing, it wouldn't be surprising to see another equatorward extension... that period will become clearer over the next week or so I think we warm up for a week from like the 10-17th... what happens afterwards is more dubious
  15. brooklynwx99
    if looking at RMM, the left of the COD is usually a cold signal as well
  16. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the poleward extension should make things rougher for a week or so, then it should become more favorable again after the 15th as the MJO orbits even then, the TPV being nearby and a cold source region won't make it impossible to get lucky
  17. brooklynwx99
    this is a pretty obvious colder shift. SE ridge is squashed, potentially opening up a risk for accumulating snow for the Northeast mid-week. can thank the more robust -EPO for that
  18. brooklynwx99
    the trend towards more of a wave break in the Pacific might make the first week of the month interesting... more of a -EPO, which displaces more cold air south. combine that with some lingering vorticity in the SW, and overrunning opportunities may present themselves
  19. brooklynwx99
    I would argue that the models are underdoing the Pacific jet and + heights near the WC and AK given that kind of tropical forcing unless the MJO can never get into 8, which I'm sure I'll be told
  20. brooklynwx99
    the TPV elongating like that into SE Canada should present opportunities for overrunning
  21. brooklynwx99
    the lack of a prolonged SPV disruption lessens the risk of blocking this month... maybe late, but who knows this far out overall, looks pretty meh for the Northeast into mid-late month. the -WPO and TPV in Canada should continue to present snowfall risks, especially into New England, but large storms look unlikely as long as the NAO remains positive and the PNA negative should see the PNA rise later on in the month as the MJO continues to progress
  22. brooklynwx99
    you usually get the wave breaking needed for -NAO when you get a huge cutter... you usually need -PNA to accomplish this
  23. brooklynwx99
    honest question, is it possible for models in the 1-2 week range to show a pattern that you will actually get excited about?
  24. brooklynwx99
    sure, we can play Monday morning QB and say "nooooo those patterns were actually bad because they didn't produce snow!" but that's disingenuous
  25. brooklynwx99
    not to harp on last year, but models actually did a good job showing the amount of high latitude blocking that developed. to say that a good pattern never developed is just incorrect
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