-
Posts
4,599 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by brooklynwx99
-
you can see the GEFS eject a wave as the confluence relaxes and the block weakens... the Pacific trough buckles and leads to height rises over the Rockies. this is how you get a big storm
- 2,529 replies
-
- 3
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
- 2,529 replies
-
- 8
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
the jet is equatorward rather than poleward... makes a pretty big difference. looks like an open STJ meeting up with confluence -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
i mean, hell, as you said, this was Feb 2021... there was a SE ridge poking up and a large trough straddling the WC. you would have people talking about how poor the Pacific is here, but it's why that blizzard even happened a trough of some sort in the GoA is present for most major storms... it's how you get a robust, moisture laden wave -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
that's also likely as far east as any Pacific trough gets before a retrograde, which is going to occur the further into the year we get. this is especially the case with the MJO progressing through the central Pacific and Indian Ocean -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
the GEFS kinda looks 2010/2016-ish with that GoA low... it's not a bad thing if the Atlantic is blocked. in fact, a trough like that would allow for strong waves to enter the flow. I think some are scarred by Pacific troughing when it's often been there during prolific periods (though mainly closer to the MA) -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
four more left! use them wisely. -
- 2,529 replies
-
- 3
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
this progression looks quite similar to 2016... you had a suppressive 50/50 and a deep trough off of the WC. a wave ejected from the trough as the block decayed, and the trough retrograded and allowed for a transient +PNA. the rest is history
- 2,529 replies
-
- 3
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
he does this stuff all the time. he said NW of I-95 would be "favored" for the Feb 2021 blizzard. they were! they got 30" while NYC got 18" lmao like give me a break
- 2,529 replies
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
here’s a good example of why the GEFS having a temporary “Pacific onslaught” isn’t really bad at all. the same thing happened in 2016. there was a surge eastward of the aleutian trough, leading to even some ridging into the C US and Great Lakes. a wave slipped underneath, the trough retrogrades, leading to a transient +PNA and boom
- 2,529 replies
-
- 10
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
-
- 2,529 replies
-
- 5
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
i generally agree, but this progression has such high confidence in modeling that you’re able to identify windows where potential is elevated. i’d say somewhere around the 21-25th holds the greatest potential for a larger event
-
my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated
-
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
and the MA had a 10" week and change, I know nobody cares about that here, but still -
my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated
- 2,529 replies
-
- 6
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
it's not bad at all. confluence is building in, Canada is pretty blocked up, and the PNA is rising quickly -
- 2,529 replies
-
- 5
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
March is 10 times more of a winter month for most than December. unless you're far inland or pretty decently north -
I agree that once we do get a storm, there is likely a transient Rockies ridge that forms from the trough in the GoA
-
this is for the 13th... I would expect a rainer at that time
-
- 2,529 replies
-
- 12
-
- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
-
we’re in a good spot. i’d be more nervous up towards Boston
-
and it’s more than cold enough, you don’t need vodka cold for big snow. if it’s too cold, i’m sure i’d hear people here complaining a lack of moisture or something lmao there is ALWAYS something to criticize with patterns, but it’s worth illustrating potential as well