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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. EPS is really ratcheting up the block in the LR. textbook progression
  2. there's so much going for the blocking that I kinda have to believe it. the progression makes perfect sense. similar to March 2018 with the -PNA, retrograding Scandi ridge, N Atl wavebreaking and a strat assist. obv not going to be quite as anomalous but there are similarities
  3. i'm really liking the burgeoning blocking signal. it all checks out... -PNA leads to N Atl wavebreaking which allows for retrogression of the Scandi ridge. couple that with a significant stratospheric disruption at 50mb and you're cooking up a block
  4. the ECMWF actually looks amazing aloft. massive blocking
  5. i'm really liking the burgeoning blocking signal. it all checks out... -PNA leads to N Atl wavebreaking which allows for retrogression of the Scandi ridge. couple that with a significant stratospheric disruption at 50mb and you're cooking up a block
  6. ECMWF gone wild after the Super Bowl. full on Arctic ridge bridge with -EPO/-NAO
  7. Scandi block getting stronger on the GEFS. much more of a wave breaking signal over the N ATL
  8. Scandi block getting stronger on the GEFS. much more of a wave breaking signal over the N ATL
  9. i think the 5th isn't much but the 8th could definitely be a solid front end thump to rain. and that's before any blocking gets going, which is looking more and more likely
  10. that tweet on the last page has the NMME from Jan 8th. like are you serious lmao what use does that have right now
  11. ENS and OP runs have a lot of chances with the boundary nearby and lots of moisture, even before the Scandi ridge tries to retrograde. could be looking at a pretty active period
  12. ENS and OP runs have a lot of chances with the boundary nearby and lots of moisture, even before the Scandi ridge tries to retrograde. could be looking at a pretty active period
  13. just a flurry of opportunities on the GFS and CMC today. active with cold nearby is a good combo
  14. also, not sure what utility extended guidance like the CanSIPS has when we’re already in February. bordering on useless and that tweet was just engagement bait to piss off people that like snow. i’m sure it worked
  15. i mean, you’re correct, there’s likely going to be a significant disruption at 50mb that would bolster any blocking from the retrograding Scandi ridge
  16. -PNA helping to lead to wave breaking in the N ATL and retrograde the Scandi ridge is a pretty classic progression. along with the 50mb shenanigans it gives me pretty good confidence in a blocking episode
  17. the -PNA, Scandinavian ridging, and N Atl trough all point to -NAO development. also take into account the 50mb vortex getting blown up and the MJO moving through the MC and a retrograding block is a legit possibility
  18. i’m liking the -NAO showing up around mid month. looks like a lot of pieces are there for a retrograding block
  19. also, ensembles are all pretty snowy up by you guys. lots of angst for the best snow means all year
  20. EPS is setting up for a pretty legit -NAO mid month. -PNA, retrograding Scandi ridge, and low N Atl heights
  21. a weakening 50mb vortex (which there is good support for), Scandinavian ridging, and a -PNA are also solid precursors for -NAO later on. that’s about all i’ve seen from others on social media
  22. lol who are you following on twitter? i haven’t seen anybody “locking in” an exact repeat of March 2018. a 14 year old posting from his parents’ basement doesn’t count
  23. i don’t think anybody has said that on Twitter or wherever else. all i’ve seen is that it increases the -NAO risk, which is true when you have a -PNA and Scandi ridging MJO is also passing through the MC, which also often happens with -NAO episodes
  24. honestly, I would sign up for this even down here. the Greenland ridging nosing in is also a nice touch. not even a SE ridge here... more of a weak WAR
  25. to prove my point further, the GEPS snow mean is pretty robust (as are the other ensembles), and the 500mb pattern looks like this. there's obviously members here that have us on the colder side of the boundary with the -EPO bringing colder HP to the north
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