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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    EPS just beating down the SE ridge
  2. brooklynwx99
    EPS is just beating down the SE ridge
  3. brooklynwx99
    EPS is NW of the OP, similar to 06z
  4. brooklynwx99
    yup, definitely continues the NW trend here
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS is going to be NW of the OP. vort actually looks a bit better than it did at 06z
  6. brooklynwx99
    GEPS is wetter and a tick farther SE
  7. brooklynwx99
    also, soundings for NNJ from the GFS would be more like 15:1 rather than 10:1 given very cold temps and lots of lift in the DGZ. although kinda early to talk about SLR, these kinds of Arctic waves often have pretty good profiles for higher ratios
  8. brooklynwx99
    should get a pretty broad precip shield given that we're in the left exit region
  9. brooklynwx99
    the 22-24th period is a modeling disaster. best to not tie yourself down to any particular solution and let things settle themselves. both the GFS and CMC are equally viable at this point
  10. brooklynwx99
    my point
  11. brooklynwx99
    most predictable NW trend ever
  12. brooklynwx99
    yeah, more amped with higher downstream heights
  13. brooklynwx99
    lol
  14. brooklynwx99
    just a small shift in the consolidation of the vort leads to big changes on the ECMWF here
  15. brooklynwx99
    EPS looks better for the 22nd. more amped members than you’d think
  16. brooklynwx99
    also has a decent signal for the 22nd with the trough tightening up more
  17. brooklynwx99
    EPS looks good!
  18. brooklynwx99
    EPS is actually pretty damn solid for the 22nd. lots of hits with the trough swinging a bit more
  19. brooklynwx99
    the difference between the CMC and ECMWF is quite small. really difficult forecast
  20. brooklynwx99
    the difference between the CMC and ECMWF is quite small. really difficult forecast
  21. brooklynwx99
    this is the difference between next to nothing on the ECMWF and widespread 3-6" on the CMC. good luck figuring that out
  22. brooklynwx99
    GFS is notoriously progressive in these setups
  23. brooklynwx99
    CMC likely moves SE given the RGEM deamplifying from 12z
  24. brooklynwx99
    RGEM is a bit less amped than 18z... looking at this, CMC likely ticks south a bit
  25. brooklynwx99
    lol couldn't have seen this coming
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