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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    just a small shift in the consolidation of the vort leads to big changes on the ECMWF here
  2. brooklynwx99
    EPS looks better for the 22nd. more amped members than you’d think
  3. brooklynwx99
    also has a decent signal for the 22nd with the trough tightening up more
  4. brooklynwx99
    EPS looks good!
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS is actually pretty damn solid for the 22nd. lots of hits with the trough swinging a bit more
  6. brooklynwx99
    the difference between the CMC and ECMWF is quite small. really difficult forecast
  7. brooklynwx99
    the difference between the CMC and ECMWF is quite small. really difficult forecast
  8. brooklynwx99
    this is the difference between next to nothing on the ECMWF and widespread 3-6" on the CMC. good luck figuring that out
  9. brooklynwx99
    GFS is notoriously progressive in these setups
  10. brooklynwx99
    CMC likely moves SE given the RGEM deamplifying from 12z
  11. brooklynwx99
    RGEM is a bit less amped than 18z... looking at this, CMC likely ticks south a bit
  12. brooklynwx99
    lol couldn't have seen this coming
  13. brooklynwx99
    how predictable
  14. brooklynwx99
    last time I checked, the event hasn't happened yet, so saying one model is correct or incorrect is kinda silly. but that's just me
  15. brooklynwx99
    ehh, the setup is touchy and this is 4 days out. these waves generally like to trend NW as we get closer so hopefully we can reel a light to moderate event in
  16. brooklynwx99
    yeah, this really isn't warm. can see a cutter beating the gradient down for a colder system following up
  17. brooklynwx99
    be still, my beating heart
  18. brooklynwx99
    yup, less amped for sure. solid run here
  19. brooklynwx99
    GEPS looks good... bit less amped than the OP. i like the CMC as a west bound and the GFS as an east bound for now
  20. brooklynwx99
    much better phasing signal with the super amplified +PNA
  21. brooklynwx99
    makes sense to see a solution this amplified with a pattern that looks like this
  22. brooklynwx99
    the pattern reminds me of early Feb 2014, if anything
  23. brooklynwx99
    it doesn’t really look all that warm with the -EPO bringing Arctic air into the CONUS, the TPV nearby, and some weak -NAO in there too i wouldn’t even call it a SE ridge. the core of it is over the Caribbean
  24. brooklynwx99
    as of right now the 19th looks like a light to potentially moderate event if the vort amps more as it swings around, which is totally possible. looks like greater potential around the 22nd with a phasing kind of look as the TPV eases and PNA ridge remains strong. more of a signal for some southern stream vorticity to get left behind for that timeframe as well
  25. brooklynwx99
    definitely a phase-y kinda look here
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