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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    yes, whining about rainy day 10 OP runs is grounded and realistic
  2. brooklynwx99
    this is the saddest internet forum on earth
  3. brooklynwx99
    this is pretty much all you need to see
  4. brooklynwx99
    i mean, the pattern that we were supposed to have verified, and it was suppressive for up here. it's not like the pattern didn't come to fruition, it just ended up too suppressive for SNE and led to a storm that hit the mid-Atlantic. that is really impressive verification for 10 days out. the can didn't get kicked, the individual pieces didn't come together correctly for much snow north of Philly. doesn't mean the models were wrong
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS is really nice looking. might be cutting it close down here but it really reminds me of 13-14
  6. brooklynwx99
    really liking the look the EPS has during that 18-22nd period. looks 13-14 esque with the displaced TPV, tons of cold in the CONUS, and a weak WAR that will help prevent suppression. sure, you can see a cutter, but it would really only tamp down the baroclinic zone for storms to ride across. give me this any day of the week over the pattern we're in now
  7. brooklynwx99
    no, calling it a cutter pattern is reductive and doesn't really tell you anything. my point is that the pattern leaves you open to them in the same way that a -NAO pattern leaves you open to suppression. we could see a cutter, just as other favorable patterns like 2013-14 produced. however, often times these cutters in these kinds of patterns only serve to tamp down the baroclinic zone such that a second wave can slide across the Arctic boundary the EPS, for example, is not what I would consider a "cutter pattern." there is lots of TPV vorticity sitting over SE Canada, tons of cold air in the flow, and no SE ridge... it's displaced more over the Caribbean and would just prevent suppression. of course you can get a cutter here, but storms can easily just slide to the south with Arctic air over the top. looks active with overrunning as the main storm track
  8. brooklynwx99
    you always risk cutters with that kind of pattern in the same way you risk suppression in blocking patterns. still doesn't take away the cold and active look. 2013-14, which this pattern reminds me of, also had cutters. usually those help to push the baroclinic zone SE for moisture to ride along
  9. brooklynwx99
    i think everyone would take a front end thump to rain at this point. certainly possible with the -EPO pattern. will be lots of cold nearby
  10. brooklynwx99
    yup, didn't matter at all. the MJO isn't a silver bullet as much as some here would make you believe
  11. brooklynwx99
    it’s just crappy wave spacing. all of the ingredients were there, they just didn’t come together correctly
  12. brooklynwx99
    there's just too much cold air... it's a persistently wintry pattern with the EPO reloading and blocking lingering. my hunch is the 18-22nd produces some kind of event. just got screwed by a suppressive TPV lobe last week and bad wave spacing this week. the general longwave setup has been there
  13. brooklynwx99
    this looks cooked for anything more than light stuff. what a waste of a great synoptic setup. luckily there will be no shortage of cold through the end of the month
  14. brooklynwx99
    why do you torture yourself like this
  15. brooklynwx99
    didn’t you guys just get dumped on? lmao
  16. brooklynwx99
    i’m not looking for a major storm. anything is better than nothing
  17. brooklynwx99
    solid trend on the RGEM
  18. brooklynwx99
    RGEM is phasing more too
  19. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS and EPS aren't even fundamentally different, they just have different degrees of phasing. it's not a massive leap from one to the other. I would still expect a smaller event but it's not like it's that far off. all guidance this afternoon has also improved the northern stream
  20. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS and EPS aren't even fundamentally different, they just have different degrees of phasing. it's not a massive leap from one to the other. I would still expect a smaller event here but it's not like it's that far off. all guidance this afternoon has also improved the northern stream
  21. brooklynwx99
    euro, CMC, UKMET all made favorable shifts. nice to see
  22. brooklynwx99
    yeah, if you see another bump like that, you could pass the inflection point where things become a lot more amped. but this could easily be an off-hour burp, we'll see
  23. brooklynwx99
    EPS is notably improved
  24. brooklynwx99
    lol you have got to be kidding me
  25. brooklynwx99
    the last thing i would worry about right now is coastal p-type. let’s get a storm first please
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