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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    EPS is making good changes here
  2. brooklynwx99
    they aren’t all that different… can easily get the ECMWF to a GFS-like bomb
  3. brooklynwx99
    yup, stronger block is leading to more of that last NS piece getting displaced south
  4. brooklynwx99
    way more consolidated. this is an even lower than normal confidence setup when even the ENS are flopping around like this
  5. brooklynwx99
    way more consolidated. this is an even lower than normal confidence setup when even the ENS are flopping around like this
  6. brooklynwx99
    way more consolidated. this is an even lower than normal confidence setup when even the ENS are flopping around like this
  7. brooklynwx99
    not all that different, just disjointed. within the range of error at this lead time
  8. brooklynwx99
    I guess. this kind of setup with confluence leading in along with a 50/50 offshore argue against a true cutter. maybe a runner / transfer, but even that will still bring potentially heavy snow at some point in the evolution. especially with a bomb
  9. brooklynwx99
    cutter? the 06z GFS is a cutter to you?
  10. brooklynwx99
    indeed… better than the 18z run as well. disregarding the OP shift for now, though it definitely remains in the envelope of solutions
  11. brooklynwx99
    this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together
  12. brooklynwx99
    this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together
  13. brooklynwx99
    this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together
  14. brooklynwx99
    EPS has some retrograding Scandi ridging going on which is always nice when trying to reload a -NAO
  15. brooklynwx99
    also this exact event is why people shouldn't fret over ENSO. some of you guys might have half of your yearly average by Jan 6 while north of 78 smokes cirrus as we're heading into a favorable pattern. I kinda love the irony
  16. brooklynwx99
    yeah we just need to keep seeing that interaction. i thought the GFS was smoking crack but the EPS honking makes me feel better about it
  17. brooklynwx99
    np! yeah you guys have the benefit of not being that worried about sleet. personally I would take the 3-6" of high ratio powder over 3-6" of sleety cement anyway. even with something like the ECMWF, you'd probably have ratios a bit over 10:1 in N MD with cold surface temps and good forcing aloft with the initial push. these soundings are cold
  18. brooklynwx99
    you guys look to be in for it. this kind of system will favor significant FGEN and heavy snow... there are likely two maxima here: one with the 700mb FGEN that has higher ratios to the north, and another with the wicked 850mb FGEN near DC (there can be mixing issues, but you have the most precip). this 700mb FGEN initially is why I wouldn't be overly worried up north. temps are better too with lesser mixing concerns. overall, looking like a significant event for many in the DC area! enjoy
  19. brooklynwx99
    definitely more of a phasing signal from the EPS over the last few runs as we enter its wheelhouse
  20. brooklynwx99
    definitely more of a phasing signal from the EPS over the last few runs as we enter its wheelhouse
  21. brooklynwx99
    pretty obvious trend towards more phasing here as we enter the EPS's wheelhouse
  22. brooklynwx99
    EPS is definitely more phase-y
  23. brooklynwx99
    this window around the 9-11th has been very synoptically favorable for a while now, so I don't think the bombed OP runs are just folly
  24. brooklynwx99
    true. i'll take my chances with a decaying west based block and 50/50, that's usually what you need for a solid coastal. but yes, it's not airtight. pretty precarious setup
  25. brooklynwx99
    the gyre over the N ATL helps
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