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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    this is so loaded. personally I think the larger threat is after the 5th
  2. brooklynwx99
    personally i think 13-14 is a better analog than 10-11 but it’s clear that we’re breaking colder. i think we moderate in late Jan and then who knows what happens in Feb. with all of the lingering Nino influence i’m not totally resigned to a super warm Feb
  3. brooklynwx99
    that negative anomaly over the Rockies is likely the GEFS trying to parse some larger storm signal more than anything IMO. you can see it on the vorticity plot kind of a ridiculous look with the AK ridging, 50/50, -NAO, and vorticity from the Plains into the SW. the elongated TPV is also a classic feature of these blocking patterns
  4. brooklynwx99
    i know what you're referring to, but the difference between this look and the last couple of years is that the core of the negative anomalies is over the Rockies and northern Plains. there's also a crap ton of confluence showing up. I see a potent Rockies vort running into confluence with cold air in place without the confluence? sure, not great, but the Atlantic changes the entire pattern
  5. brooklynwx99
    sorry for conflating the favorable pattern / big storm stuff. usually one just leads to the other haha
  6. brooklynwx99
    I think that system establishes a 50/50 for a larger threat afterwards
  7. brooklynwx99
    lol i know you’re on the big storm train. the similarities are uncanny, obviously not calling for anything this massive but the pattern really is analogous
  8. brooklynwx99
    @psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah, I kinda like the 3-6th more... Arctic airmass gets entrenched with a 50/50 ULL sitting nearby, block weakening and an open STJ. fireworks with this kind of look
  10. brooklynwx99
    yeah this is the timeframe I like for a larger snow event... very cold airmass has been established with a potent -EPO, there's a N ATL dipole with lots of confluence in the 50/50 region, and split flow. the STJ undercutting is something out of the Modoki Nino handbook too
  11. brooklynwx99
    I'm worried about the airmass for that threat, though. I think there's some kind of wave that moves through afterwards as that one you mentioned establishes a 50/50 ULL that can be a larger snow threat
  12. brooklynwx99
    EPS is actually trending better, somehow
  13. brooklynwx99
    well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW
  14. brooklynwx99
    well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW
  15. brooklynwx99
    about 3.1” in Morristown! what a nice little event can’t ask for more in late December
  16. brooklynwx99
    indeed. it’s been a long time. got about 2” in Morristown
  17. brooklynwx99
    the vort moving through over the next 6-12 hours should spark some decent snow over NNJ. likely some coatings up to 1-2”
  18. brooklynwx99
    can’t wait for people to say this is cold and dry. this is perfect for amplification into confluence along with a decaying block and an Arctic air mass feeding in IF this is legit, this is the kind of pattern that presents high end potential from DC-BOS. just need to give it another week to see if the block is real… i think the Pacific is going to end up favorable
  19. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it’s a very open flow… ripe for amplification. the block is actually doing its job too with the clogged up N ATL
  20. brooklynwx99
    fantabulous, actually
  21. brooklynwx99
    it can be +15 over N Canada and it would be more than cold enough for us
  22. brooklynwx99
    you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced
  23. brooklynwx99
    the GEPS sees the vision at 15 days out lmao perfect synoptics
  24. brooklynwx99
    big 50/50 showing up trapped by the -NAO. could have something larger showing up around the 6-10th, but that's a ways out there. lots of the pieces seem to be in place. very high confidence in a -EPO, and confidence in a -NAO is increasing by the day
  25. brooklynwx99
    would be hilarious if we got the Modoki pattern during a La Nina. open STJ and everything
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