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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    pretty good agreement overall
  2. brooklynwx99
    what does your ideal pattern look like? there is troughing showing up over the N ATL that will encourage confluence, it's not like there's a WAR or a massive ridge over Nova Scotia
  3. brooklynwx99
    I'm inclined to agree
  4. brooklynwx99
    i mean, the pattern is analogous to Jan 2011. no denying that. probably the best the E US has seen for cold and snow in quite some time
  5. brooklynwx99
    at that point, the slight troughiness out west can just be a storm signal showing up
  6. brooklynwx99
    if this is trending in the wrong direction, sign me up
  7. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has an overrunning type setup for the 4-5th btw. potent SS vort running into confluence. this is probably the first shot at snow for most in this pattern
  8. brooklynwx99
    this is the "look at long range OP runs" to get yourself worked up part of the LR forecasting process apparently lmao
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah the GEFS looks good with the 4-6th timeframe. juiced SS vort potentially running into confluence... the thing is that you can have a cutter if 1) the SS vort cuts off for whatever reason or 2) if there isn't sufficient confluence. but every setup has its fail modes
  10. brooklynwx99
    this is also really nice. love the confluence
  11. brooklynwx99
    lol this is a ridiculous look. split flow, -EPO, elongated TPV, 50/50 ULL, and vorticity hanging out over the SW
  12. brooklynwx99
    this is so loaded. personally I think the larger threat is after the 5th
  13. brooklynwx99
    personally i think 13-14 is a better analog than 10-11 but it’s clear that we’re breaking colder. i think we moderate in late Jan and then who knows what happens in Feb. with all of the lingering Nino influence i’m not totally resigned to a super warm Feb
  14. brooklynwx99
    that negative anomaly over the Rockies is likely the GEFS trying to parse some larger storm signal more than anything IMO. you can see it on the vorticity plot kind of a ridiculous look with the AK ridging, 50/50, -NAO, and vorticity from the Plains into the SW. the elongated TPV is also a classic feature of these blocking patterns
  15. brooklynwx99
    i know what you're referring to, but the difference between this look and the last couple of years is that the core of the negative anomalies is over the Rockies and northern Plains. there's also a crap ton of confluence showing up. I see a potent Rockies vort running into confluence with cold air in place without the confluence? sure, not great, but the Atlantic changes the entire pattern
  16. brooklynwx99
    sorry for conflating the favorable pattern / big storm stuff. usually one just leads to the other haha
  17. brooklynwx99
    I think that system establishes a 50/50 for a larger threat afterwards
  18. brooklynwx99
    lol i know you’re on the big storm train. the similarities are uncanny, obviously not calling for anything this massive but the pattern really is analogous
  19. brooklynwx99
    @psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big
  20. brooklynwx99
    yeah, I kinda like the 3-6th more... Arctic airmass gets entrenched with a 50/50 ULL sitting nearby, block weakening and an open STJ. fireworks with this kind of look
  21. brooklynwx99
    yeah this is the timeframe I like for a larger snow event... very cold airmass has been established with a potent -EPO, there's a N ATL dipole with lots of confluence in the 50/50 region, and split flow. the STJ undercutting is something out of the Modoki Nino handbook too
  22. brooklynwx99
    I'm worried about the airmass for that threat, though. I think there's some kind of wave that moves through afterwards as that one you mentioned establishes a 50/50 ULL that can be a larger snow threat
  23. brooklynwx99
    EPS is actually trending better, somehow
  24. brooklynwx99
    well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW
  25. brooklynwx99
    well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW
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