brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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massive change on the GFS
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massive change on the GFS
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just a massive change on the GFS
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lol you’d think this was an awful winter for the area. let’s ignore the EPS, 12z OP ECMWF, GEPS, UKMET because of the GFS and AIFS
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it’s been flopping around for days. not any better than any other piece of guidance
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that isn't progressive. PNA is stronger and there is a strong closed low over MN. the low will pivot and bring PVA up
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ECMWF looks just like the 12z EPS. nice to see
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if this was the other way around with the GFS/GEFS only showing something and everything else relatively unenthused, the GFS would be launched to Pluto
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that kicker actually helps pump the PNA for a brief time as the trough amps. pretty common before it flattens things, but if the spark is already lit it doesn't matter
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EPS actually upped the ante from 00z
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if the EPS has even a clue with this kind of look I think we're in for a significant event
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EPS is even more amped than 00z. insane for a mean at this range
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I would argue the GFS is the one with little to no support. GEPS, EPS, ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET all had amped solutions. GFS is the only one that’s pretty flat
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EPS is very amplified. what a look btw, that isn’t a SE ridge linking with the -NAO… those are height rises downstream from the amping vort
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EPS has trended back to its more exotic look from a couple days ago at 00z
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EPS is sick
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what a monster
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honestly, the AIFS hasn't been any more consistent than any other model, and this storm is 8 days out. too much emphasis is placed on it IMO
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there is some interest
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nah i could go without being the scapegoat for less frozen water falling from the sky. i'm good
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lol no model shows a cutter. could it get a little too close for comfort for the immediate coast, sure, but i find it highly unlikely that we see a system cut through the Apps. more likely to see suppression than a wet outcome here
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just a massive signal here
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like I can't look at this and not get a little excited. it has every synoptic feature you're looking for
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all we can use is the data we have right now. if things change, we can change our view on the pattern. right now, things look really good... we'll see what happens over the next few days. it's worth it to temper expectations but also acknowledge that there is heightened potential for a significant to even major storm around the 20th
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