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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    extended guidance like that often overdoes the influence of ENSO. we saw that last year. given the ample momentum in the Pacific jet so far I wouldn't resign myself to thinking that we're going to see a canonical -ENSO Feb... nothing about the current or upcoming pattern is canonical
  2. brooklynwx99
    pretty obvious trend that's coinciding with the more favorable PNA
  3. brooklynwx99
    euro makes the same improvements with the PNA
  4. brooklynwx99
    @Typhoon Tip heights downstream of the vort max are actually buckling this run as you were talking about earlier
  5. brooklynwx99
    better wave spacing and taller PNA, more consolidated vort on the GEFS
  6. brooklynwx99
    PNA really making a comeback
  7. brooklynwx99
    favorable changes on the GFS. taller PNA, sharper vort, and higher downstream heights
  8. brooklynwx99
    yeah the issue is that it sucks
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah this is an actual improvement with the PNA. RGEM also has a taller western ridge
  10. brooklynwx99
    wave spacing masterclass. at this point it's just the universe spinning the wheel and fucking us
  11. brooklynwx99
    they look good. the context is different from last year, though. this isn't a super Nino so we aren't going to see a raging Pacific jet all year
  12. brooklynwx99
    seems like the Pacific trough retrogrades quickly around NYE. could take a week or so to flush out the warmer air, though with no blocking it shouldn't take forever. probably get into a legitimately colder pattern around 1/7
  13. brooklynwx99
    uncalled for
  14. brooklynwx99
    the random uptick at 06z on the EPS before the massive kick in the balls is almost comical. it's like the models have been engineered for max pain
  15. brooklynwx99
    meh i'm bored dude. might as well see what this thing does
  16. brooklynwx99
    like lol this is a significant shift
  17. brooklynwx99
    UKMET is backed far west with the trough. seems like the only model that's gotten crappier so far is the GFS
  18. brooklynwx99
    meanwhile, the trailing vort actually helps things out on the CMC. it's better than 00z
  19. brooklynwx99
    EPS continues to deepen
  20. brooklynwx99
    EPS is definitely deeper. improved from 18z
  21. brooklynwx99
    liking the more poleward PNA. probably has to do with the increased TPV involvement
  22. brooklynwx99
    GEFS shifted the trough axis west which is a legitimately nice move
  23. brooklynwx99
    the CMC getting the TPV more involved is definitely an interesting trend
  24. brooklynwx99
    i mean, it’s definitely better but it’s not enough
  25. brooklynwx99
    regression to the mean is a bitch, isn’t it
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