brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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it probably does. not certainly but I wouldn't expect advisory snow into NYC from the coastal. regardless, late tonight into tomorrow morning looks good for NYC's first measurable snow -
the RGEM and HRRR are also mesoscale short term models and are nowhere near it
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I have a hard time believing the NAM given that it has absolutely no support, but crazier things have happened. the RGEM/HRRR seem much more realistic
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I still think RI, E MA and SE MA are likely in for a solid advisory snow… the NAM where advisory snow gets into NYC with warning snow into E CT? bit rich
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yeah the HRRR not biting gives me pause again. if the RGEM makes a big move its full steam ahead IMO
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GEFS cooking with oil now too
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yeah the GFS moving NW makes me pretty confident for advisory snows in RI into E / SE MA
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NYC likely sees its first measurable snow as the trailing vort pivots through… looking like light snow with temps cold enough. general C-1” type stuff
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RGEM looks pretty realistic. main WAA push with the vort into the HV/far W CT, C CT kinda gets skunked, then the coastal front enhances precipitation as the coastal gets going into RI/E MA. BL issues neuter accumulations down to PYM/Cape
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could the NAM be right? sure, but it’s been super erratic and you would think that global models would support it more. if the RGEM craps on it, it would be a big red flag. if it makes a big move, i’ll be more intrigued
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i’m gonna toss the NAM until it has support from a single reliable model. the LR RAP doesn’t count lmao if the RGEM moves NW i’ll be intrigued
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I think the overall pattern here is a lot safer since the Pacific looks locked into moving favorably... last year was pretty much fully dependent on the Atlantic, and the Atlantic itself was contingent on a cutter leading to massive wave breaking. very precarious
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also, that look is 2-3 weeks out, not 5-6 weeks out like last year. it's continuing the progression on the ensembles, so it's not like it's showing that for no reason
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i mean, the -EPO developing during the first week of Jan is a near certainty, we are going to have that feature barring a complete mishandling of the Pacific. the potential -NAO just ups the ante, and there is increasing confidence that one is going to form. it's showing up on all ensembles around day 10 I want to wait another 5-7 days to see if it sticks around, but it's promising. I'm not going to let last year's debacle influence my thinking all that much
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considering the blocking doesn’t rely on a cutter and the Pacific seems a lot more favorable, this seems a bit more solid i’d like to give this another week though
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lol this is ridiculous too. 50/50 signal at 2-3 weeks out is kinda wild. this is the kind of stuff we were looking for last year
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no, it's actually forming at the end of Dec. this is also a block. it just advects northward and retrogrades. kind of a weird evolution but still a valid one note the LP dipole in the Atlantic. it's jamming stuff up downstream, so it's not one of those bootleg positive anomalies that does nothing to slow the flow down
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even a 50/50 signal as the block decays
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as long as the flow is coming out of northern Canada and the Arctic, it can be as warm as it wants up there. usually Canada being ice cold means that the colder air is bottled up instead of being displaced to our latitude
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i mean, with the decaying block, -EPO, and even some split flow, could be a larger storm in early Jan seems like the block is actually useful with all of the negative anomalies in the N Atl. resembles a Modoki Nino pattern honestly
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this is what you want to see for legit snow opportunities in early Jan
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jesus
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i think it has issues with precip smoothing. makes sense
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near normal is fine in early Jan
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also it wouldn't be shocking if the later weeks of the Euro Weeklies were just reverting to -ENSO climo. frankly, we haven't seen much of a canonical Nina pattern at all and aren't going to for the next two weeks at least. i don't see how one can resign to typical -ENSO climo into late Jan. sure, it'll likely get a bit warmer but a persistent SE ridge is not a given they did the same exact thing last year reverting to +ENSO climo with an Aleutian low and -NAO that never really happened
