brooklynwx99

i didn’t want to ruffle any feathers with that stuff lmao

trend with the confluence is clear as day on the EPS

EPS with a huge shift. much less confluence and a stronger vort

wow ECMWF. significant change with the confluence

my thoughts haven’t changed all that much

if i'm going to be in your head this much you could at least ask me to pay you rent

exactly, amped means something. better than a weak POS

honestly, even if this amps more and confluence ticks north, there's enough cold in place that I don't see how you guys wouldn't at least get a front end +SN thump to usher in the pattern. the antecedent airmass is very cold

straight out of the MA weenie handbook

those are heights, not thicknesses. it’s a very cold setup

straight out of the Mid-Atlantic weenie handbook

yeah, this is a pretty sick hemispheric signal as the block decays and PNA spikes around that time. definitely the larger scale threat

NE doesn't need a -NAO whatsoever... most of BOS's major storms have no correlation with the NAO. they're all -EPO/+PNA driven

this is why blocking patterns are so favorable... watch how everything slows way down and allows for a phase, albeit messy. a +NAO pattern wouldn't even be close to one

this is why blocking patterns are so favorable... watch how everything slows way down and allows for a phase, albeit messy. a +NAO pattern wouldn't even be close to one

yeah, this is really impressive agreement on a cold and stormy pattern on all ensembles

this same thing happened last year in mid-Feb where ABE got 12" of snow on like 20-30:1 ratios from a clipper with a FGEN band

i think the 6th might present suppression issues with the 50/50 ULL so close by, but I can see SNE getting in on it if that trends weaker or if the S/W trends stronger (the latter seems more likely)... overall this presents as a DC-NYC type event but it's still out there afterwards, the ensembles are definitely honking for a larger trough amplification as the +PNA pumps somewhere between the 8-11th as Tip mentioned. there is certainly the potential for something significant to major in this window... the pattern also persists through the 15th, so you'll have multiple opportunities to cash in, especially as the blocking eases

I'm starting to like the 6th... the longwave pattern is such that if you get a decent wave, it'll just launch into the confluence and lead to a nice gradient with FGEN. 50/50 is locked in, so pretty much no risk of a cutter, would just be a Miller B if the wave is super amped or a thump to drizzle at worst. pretty much a snow or nothing kind of setup. unlikely to see anything major, but a 3-6" or 4-8" event is certainly on the table. this is a pretty typical DC-NYC setup (probably favoring PHL south)

I'm starting to like the 6th... the longwave pattern is such that if you get a decent wave, it'll just launch into the confluence and lead to a nice gradient with FGEN. 50/50 is locked in, so pretty much no risk of a cutter, would just be a Miller B if the wave is super amped or a thump to drizzle at worst. pretty much a snow or nothing kind of setup. unlikely to see anything major, but a 3-6" or 4-8" event is certainly on the table

yeah I think the OP is a bit much with the suppression but it's a possibility in these patterns. gotta deal with the risk of suppression if you want larger storms, though

that's around the 5-6th, though. moves into the more ideal 50/50 position around the 8-9th, which is probably the first shot at a big one

what a sick trend. we've gone from a rather transient east-based Greenland ridge to a true west-based retrograding Davis Strait block. this will lead to legit potential for a significant to major storm when it decays, as is usual this pattern generally favors NYC down to RIC honestly

what a sick trend. we've gone from a rather transient east-based Greenland ridge to a true west-based retrograding Davis Strait block. this will lead to legit potential for a KU when it decays, as is usual this pattern generally favors NYC down to RIC honestly