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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    how predictable
  2. brooklynwx99
    last time I checked, the event hasn't happened yet, so saying one model is correct or incorrect is kinda silly. but that's just me
  3. brooklynwx99
    ehh, the setup is touchy and this is 4 days out. these waves generally like to trend NW as we get closer so hopefully we can reel a light to moderate event in
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah, this really isn't warm. can see a cutter beating the gradient down for a colder system following up
  5. brooklynwx99
    be still, my beating heart
  6. brooklynwx99
    yup, less amped for sure. solid run here
  7. brooklynwx99
    GEPS looks good... bit less amped than the OP. i like the CMC as a west bound and the GFS as an east bound for now
  8. brooklynwx99
    much better phasing signal with the super amplified +PNA
  9. brooklynwx99
    makes sense to see a solution this amplified with a pattern that looks like this
  10. brooklynwx99
    the pattern reminds me of early Feb 2014, if anything
  11. brooklynwx99
    it doesn’t really look all that warm with the -EPO bringing Arctic air into the CONUS, the TPV nearby, and some weak -NAO in there too i wouldn’t even call it a SE ridge. the core of it is over the Caribbean
  12. brooklynwx99
    as of right now the 19th looks like a light to potentially moderate event if the vort amps more as it swings around, which is totally possible. looks like greater potential around the 22nd with a phasing kind of look as the TPV eases and PNA ridge remains strong. more of a signal for some southern stream vorticity to get left behind for that timeframe as well
  13. brooklynwx99
    definitely a phase-y kinda look here
  14. brooklynwx99
    GEFS shifting to hanging more of the vorticity back
  15. brooklynwx99
    we've seen the Pacific jet get stronger time and time again as we head into the medium range so the retrogression might just be overdone
  16. brooklynwx99
    yes they are. a cutter pattern has the mean storm track over the OH Valley with a deep -PNA and strong SE ridge. cold and dry has the mean storm track out in the Atlantic with a deep trough over the East. two completely different things. this is a cutter pattern: also, it doesn't even look dry. precip is about normal and ensembles are still showing a signal for that 18-22nd timeframe. I swear some of you are just making stuff up
  17. brooklynwx99
    so apparently we've gone from a "cutter pattern" to a cold and dry one in like two days? how does that happen? those are two completely different patterns
  18. brooklynwx99
    I wouldn’t expect something as ridiculous as 13-14… the pattern just reminded me of the one largely in place that year
  19. brooklynwx99
    seems like -NAO blocking patterns are dry and suppressive, -EPO patterns without blocking are cutter patterns, and actual cutter patterns with -PNA are super cutter patterns. what exactly is the pattern that will produce snowfall for some of you? what are some of you looking for exactly
  20. brooklynwx99
    “trying” to flex doesn’t count. the ridge is super flat and there’s TPV vorticity in southern Canada that will make it more difficult for storms to gain latitude the gradient is largely south of us. sure, you can get a cutter, but calling it a cutter pattern is reductive. cutter patterns have deep troughs in the west and strong ridges in the east. that is not the case here
  21. brooklynwx99
    finally looks cold with precip after the 18th or so. reminiscent of the patterns we had in 13-14
  22. brooklynwx99
    finally looks cold with precip after the 18th or so. reminiscent of the patterns we had in 13-14
  23. brooklynwx99
    i mean, the angst over it is a bit much considering that the initial wave likely drags the baroclinic zone south. that’s common in these -EPO patterns. a two day warmup and a little rain before a potential colder storm isn’t an indictment on a pattern that does look cold and legitimately active who knows, that initial wave could also trend flatter. it’s 8 days out
  24. brooklynwx99
    acknowledging that the upcoming pattern is cold and active isn’t hype at all. maybe we have to endure a little rain. not a huge deal and it isn’t indicative of the pattern not being conducive for snow also, neither are realistic. i don’t think any of you have seen me posting long range OP runs regardless of the outcome
  25. brooklynwx99
    i mean DC got its 4th largest snowstorm this decade. just crappy luck that a TPV lobe moved to our north. the main threat area was NYC to RIC and it was the southern half of that envelope
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