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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    lol at this trend in the Pacific. went from an AK trough of doom to legit +PNA
  2. brooklynwx99
    there is a nearly 3 sigma -NAO developing as this system moves in, so I would argue that blocking is indeed very strong
  3. brooklynwx99
    EPS continues to tick colder. mean is about 4" for NYC i generally like this kind of event... shove moisture into HP and you usually have success
  4. brooklynwx99
    lol
  5. brooklynwx99
    this is a potent setup
  6. brooklynwx99
    really easy to see how Friday's system trending colder and farther south increases the blocking due to stronger wave breaking, which then leads to a more favorable outcome for Monday if the block keeps trending in this way, Monday might hold some high end potential, especially up by you guys. TBD
  7. brooklynwx99
    really easy to see how Friday's system trending colder and farther south increases the blocking due to stronger wave breaking, which then leads to a more favorable outcome for Monday if the block keeps trending in this way, Monday might hold some high end potential, especially up by you guys. TBD
  8. brooklynwx99
    CMC is proof of that... more confluence -> farther south system Friday -> stronger block -> nuke Monday due to farther south ULL
  9. brooklynwx99
    yup, and the confluence trending stronger for Friday strengthens the block, which helps Sunday trend better. just a series of dominoes
  10. brooklynwx99
    yeah, would be nice to get Friday and then maybe some better potential next week all I know is that if you get that strong and west based enough, dumb shit will happen. almost always does when you have a block that big. it isn't there yet, as the main vort tracks through the lakes, but it wouldn't take a lot to change that if you weaken that Pacific trough or retro it more
  11. brooklynwx99
    this is absolutely pitiful lmao next week could end up legit if that block keeps uptrending
  12. brooklynwx99
    pretty legit trend in the confluence for late week. Fri-Sat is def a timeframe to watch for a legit thump
  13. brooklynwx99
    pretty legit trend in the confluence for late week. Fri-Sat is def a timeframe to watch for a legit thump
  14. brooklynwx99
    the trend west with the ridge axis around the 30th is nice to see... hopefully that continues
  15. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the -NAO strengthen and the Pacific trough weaken
  16. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the -NAO strengthen and the Pacific trough weaken
  17. brooklynwx99
    I've noticed that a lot of the AI stuff does pretty poorly with anomalous Atlantic blocks. they often struggle to get them to develop and wash them out too quickly when they occur. might make sense with the fact that they struggle with anomalous outcomes and they "smooth" things out a bit
  18. brooklynwx99
    lol what the hell is the point of that then
  19. brooklynwx99
    one of the only things that can really alleviate a shit Pacific with -WPO is a strong west based -NAO… just shunts everything west and changes the Pacific alignment
  20. brooklynwx99
    can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see
  21. brooklynwx99
    can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see
  22. brooklynwx99
    if you retro that Pacific trough a bit more and allow for the ridge axis over the Plain to shift 100mi towards Montana, things become very interesting
  23. brooklynwx99
    the 23rd and 26th are both pretty interesting as vorts come over the top of that C US ridge. could be some WAA thumps
  24. brooklynwx99
    pretty significant block showing up later in the month, but the Pacific is kinda trash need to see if the block can become more west based and exert its will on the pattern, perhaps a forcing more of a ridge bridge up top. either that, or the Bering Sea ridge nudging east into AK regardless, nice to see an Atlantic block develop... just need to see some other factors become more favorable for legit shots at snow south of the M/D line
  25. brooklynwx99
    nah i can't, which is why I think things are going to be one or the other. either more of a trough over the NE or warmer like the old GEPS runs. that's a weird in between
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