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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    also this exact event is why people shouldn't fret over ENSO. some of you guys might have half of your yearly average by Jan 6 while north of 78 smokes cirrus as we're heading into a favorable pattern. I kinda love the irony
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah we just need to keep seeing that interaction. i thought the GFS was smoking crack but the EPS honking makes me feel better about it
  3. brooklynwx99
    np! yeah you guys have the benefit of not being that worried about sleet. personally I would take the 3-6" of high ratio powder over 3-6" of sleety cement anyway. even with something like the ECMWF, you'd probably have ratios a bit over 10:1 in N MD with cold surface temps and good forcing aloft with the initial push. these soundings are cold
  4. brooklynwx99
    you guys look to be in for it. this kind of system will favor significant FGEN and heavy snow... there are likely two maxima here: one with the 700mb FGEN that has higher ratios to the north, and another with the wicked 850mb FGEN near DC (there can be mixing issues, but you have the most precip). this 700mb FGEN initially is why I wouldn't be overly worried up north. temps are better too with lesser mixing concerns. overall, looking like a significant event for many in the DC area! enjoy
  5. brooklynwx99
    definitely more of a phasing signal from the EPS over the last few runs as we enter its wheelhouse
  6. brooklynwx99
    definitely more of a phasing signal from the EPS over the last few runs as we enter its wheelhouse
  7. brooklynwx99
    pretty obvious trend towards more phasing here as we enter the EPS's wheelhouse
  8. brooklynwx99
    EPS is definitely more phase-y
  9. brooklynwx99
    this window around the 9-11th has been very synoptically favorable for a while now, so I don't think the bombed OP runs are just folly
  10. brooklynwx99
    true. i'll take my chances with a decaying west based block and 50/50, that's usually what you need for a solid coastal. but yes, it's not airtight. pretty precarious setup
  11. brooklynwx99
    the gyre over the N ATL helps
  12. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF phases!
  13. brooklynwx99
    EPS had a few stronger members as well. just a signal for now
  14. brooklynwx99
    i think this window has a more mature pattern where the block isn't quite as oppressive... the 50/50 is in the spot it "should" be in, so the risk of completely squashing something is lower
  15. brooklynwx99
    there has been a pretty well defined trend to get more of the southern stream involved
  16. brooklynwx99
    UKMET was a pube away. everything else is there for the taking with this setup, just need the phase
  17. brooklynwx99
    the overall synoptics are very favorable, just worried about the western ridge rolling over and trapping the SW vort in hell for a few days
  18. brooklynwx99
    seems like we have this pinned down
  19. brooklynwx99
    holy crap what a trend
  20. brooklynwx99
    i don’t think anyone here wants any of that right now lmao
  21. brooklynwx99
    EPS has some retrograding Scandi ridge action happening which is always nice
  22. brooklynwx99
    more favorable interaction with the TPV lobe
  23. brooklynwx99
    i think we know where this is going
  24. brooklynwx99
    pretty much splits the difference between 12/18z. about what I would expect
  25. brooklynwx99
    i would urge caution at this point given that it’s just one run with a jump like this but the 12z GEPS also shot north and the ICON had a similar evolution with a lobe of the TPV tilting the trough
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