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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    if a transient AK vortex does develop, it would be due to a strongly negative WPO… you’d be getting modified Siberian air, not a true Pacific onslaught sure, you’d modify eventually, but it wouldn’t be all that bad
  2. brooklynwx99
    quite the trend with the AO… almost getting a -WPO/-NAO ridge bridge at this point. makes sense with the weak SPV
  3. brooklynwx99
    i fucking hate the AIFS dude. it gets humped to no end and people rely on it too much sometimes analysis is just “well, the AIFS shows this, so…” and it’s the worst
  4. brooklynwx99
    no problem, Ray! always glad to be of assistance
  5. brooklynwx99
    you know i’m not IMBY-ing, but i do think that the overall pattern favors less consolidation and an outcome more similar to the foreign guidance. it’s progressive
  6. brooklynwx99
    it’s just way more consolidated with the vort as it moves through the Plains and Midwest
  7. brooklynwx99
    GFS on an island… usually ends only one way
  8. brooklynwx99
    even with said AK vortex (which seems suspect), it’s still cold with a -NAO popping up. this would still be serviceable for a while, and this seems like the worst case scenario through the 10th. EPS and GEPS are much colder with +PNA
  9. brooklynwx99
    i like to use the GEPS as a bit of a tiebreaker in these instances… def more EPS-like like seeing that -NAO over the top, really helps out
  10. brooklynwx99
    i’m fine with leaning a certain way based on certain reasoning. you’ll be wrong at that range sometimes, it is what it is the storm also hasn’t verified, though
  11. brooklynwx99
    this just looks like twitter engagement bait. every MJO forecast has another wave propagating into 8… those plots just don’t go out far enough
  12. brooklynwx99
  13. brooklynwx99
    personally, given the pattern, i would find something suppressed and washed out more likely than something as amped as the GFS
  14. brooklynwx99
    way more likely that the mid-week system is a POS than something amped and rainy IMO
  15. brooklynwx99
    don't worry, if it's wrong, it'll tick 10 miles NW at a time for twenty runs in a row
  16. brooklynwx99
    i like seeing the more consolidated trough along with the deeper press from the TPV into Maine on the 06z
  17. brooklynwx99
    I agree that they don’t look as good… given the MJO progression, I feel like the EPS makes more sense. we’ll see
  18. brooklynwx99
    Pacific jet is trending more equatorward towards mid-month, leading to a better wave break and more poleward ridging near AK… this makes sense given the MJO
  19. brooklynwx99
    true. I think that Pacific trough is transient as the momentum from the poleward jet extension pushes into AK. then, as the MJO continues progressing, it wouldn't be surprising to see another equatorward extension... that period will become clearer over the next week or so I think we warm up for a week from like the 10-17th... what happens afterwards is more dubious
  20. brooklynwx99
    if looking at RMM, the left of the COD is usually a cold signal as well
  21. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the poleward extension should make things rougher for a week or so, then it should become more favorable again after the 15th as the MJO orbits even then, the TPV being nearby and a cold source region won't make it impossible to get lucky
  22. brooklynwx99
    this is a pretty obvious colder shift. SE ridge is squashed, potentially opening up a risk for accumulating snow for the Northeast mid-week. can thank the more robust -EPO for that
  23. brooklynwx99
    the trend towards more of a wave break in the Pacific might make the first week of the month interesting... more of a -EPO, which displaces more cold air south. combine that with some lingering vorticity in the SW, and overrunning opportunities may present themselves
  24. brooklynwx99
    I would argue that the models are underdoing the Pacific jet and + heights near the WC and AK given that kind of tropical forcing unless the MJO can never get into 8, which I'm sure I'll be told
  25. brooklynwx99
    the TPV elongating like that into SE Canada should present opportunities for overrunning
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