brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow
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they are showing that for like 24-48 hours. do you think that will be an issue after the 3-5th? honest question
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by the way, the Pacific jet actually trended weaker for early Jan, not stronger. it was significantly stronger a few days ago
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also, if the Pacific jet is also going to be stronger than forecast for much of the winter, wouldn't that mean that the retraction on the extended guidance for late Jan into Feb is overdone, shifting the prospective Aleutian ridge more into AK and the WC, leading to a colder E US pattern? but nobody is using that logic in that fashion for whatever reason
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also, just logically speaking, in order for us to go from the overextended jet like we have now to the supposed retracted jet SE ridge pattern in late Jan that some are advertising, there HAS to be a period where the jet is in a favorable position for WC and AK ridging and a mean trough in the east. the jet can't just magically hop from one place to the other
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but the Pacific jet is going to retract. the pattern isn't going to remain static forever. the jet extension we just saw was well forecast
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so you think that trough isn't transient on average? just to be clear? and you do not believe the ensembles just a couple of days after that screenshot with a mean trough in the E US?
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ok, so the progression on every single ensemble is going to be wrong? is that what you're saying? also, there's a trough in the east for two weeks on the extended GEFS and three weeks on the Weeklies. that is what the extended products are showing. it's not transient
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the MJO is quite weak... seems like other intraseasonal factors are going to have more of an impact. also, I wouldn't consider a mean trough in the east for 2-3 weeks transient. extended guidance could easily be overdoing the impact of ENSO. it did the same thing last year
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that screenshot of the pattern is misleading. a static image won't paint an accurate picture of what's actually occurring
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that trough is transient, though. it's normal for there to be a transient trough in the west when the EPO drops... the pattern is in the process of transitioning there
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the GFS showing the solution it does is a big deal -
it's funny, I know you've been mentioning this, but the GFS presentation is what one would "expect" given the synoptics. just odd that we would have had to wait this long for it
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yeah, this is definitely more of a signal than whatever the NAM is showing. PVA is more NW
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it probably does. not certainly but I wouldn't expect advisory snow into NYC from the coastal. regardless, late tonight into tomorrow morning looks good for NYC's first measurable snow
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the RGEM and HRRR are also mesoscale short term models and are nowhere near it
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I have a hard time believing the NAM given that it has absolutely no support, but crazier things have happened. the RGEM/HRRR seem much more realistic
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I still think RI, E MA and SE MA are likely in for a solid advisory snow… the NAM where advisory snow gets into NYC with warning snow into E CT? bit rich
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yeah the HRRR not biting gives me pause again. if the RGEM makes a big move its full steam ahead IMO
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GEFS cooking with oil now too
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yeah the GFS moving NW makes me pretty confident for advisory snows in RI into E / SE MA
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NYC likely sees its first measurable snow as the trailing vort pivots through… looking like light snow with temps cold enough. general C-1” type stuff
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RGEM looks pretty realistic. main WAA push with the vort into the HV/far W CT, C CT kinda gets skunked, then the coastal front enhances precipitation as the coastal gets going into RI/E MA. BL issues neuter accumulations down to PYM/Cape
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could the NAM be right? sure, but it’s been super erratic and you would think that global models would support it more. if the RGEM craps on it, it would be a big red flag. if it makes a big move, i’ll be more intrigued
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i’m gonna toss the NAM until it has support from a single reliable model. the LR RAP doesn’t count lmao if the RGEM moves NW i’ll be intrigued
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