brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the CMC and UKMET are also much better looking out west. I am definitely taking the GFS with a grain of salt but it's not that far off, and the PNA has been trending better for a while now
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FWIW the CMC did make some nice shifts synoptically
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the trend with the PNA over the last model cycle has been pretty nice. went from a trough to a full latitude ridge on the GEFS over BC
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agreed, though the trend for more -NAO probably does limit the extent of the warmth
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dude that was two weeks ago, damn
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it's an operational model at 10 days out. it will do that, as will any other OP at this range
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all ensembles maintain a signal for the 9-10th, just a matter of phasing. worth keeping an eye on
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GEFS has quite a signal with lots of strong coastals
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the transient 50/50 and -EPO do help this threat. the synoptics are there, it just needs to deliver with a phase
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next shot at something more substantial is probably the 9-10th as the cutter drops the TPV down and a wave tries to amp into the colder airmass with the transient PNA spike. after that, it's likely curtains outside of NNE with some warm weather on the way
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oh god please no
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the AIFS humping is going to be unbearable for a while. past 5 days it isn't as good as any other model, really
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he shits on every storm threat that has ever formed
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i saw people even comparing this to Jan 2015. that was on a totally different level of fail. not even close
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yeah, trust me, it was one of the more stunning model collapses in the last several years. absolutely sucked
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yup, I will reassess in 2030 or so. the sample size is just too small and we could get blasted a few times to close the decade for all anyone knows. people also thought the massive WC ridges from 2013-15 were going to be the new norm. how laughable that seems now
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i mean, it is, but 48 hours is a bit much. the models capitulated and it totally blew, but it was at 120-144 hours out. that happens. we're in agreement that it would be a different story if we were inside of three days god, i can't wait for an effective El Nino. hopefully next year
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that's kinda silly. that attitude is borne out of frustration rather than anything scientific
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yup, some people never understand that good patterns just increase the odds for snow, not guarantee it. we literally just saw that play out this week!
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anything of substance to add? no? no wonder why mets barely post here anymore. doesn't seem to be an issue in other subforums
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we'll have more chances into March. cold with -AO/-EPO persisting
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yeah, it is absolutely not over
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I'm banking on shorter wavelengths and a weak WAR to help us out here
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this is quite a bit healthier. like seeing the -AO over the top too. pretty solid
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@Rjay lol
