brooklynwx99

so, if Jan ends up -3F and like -0.5” liquid, i would bet that it’s snowier than average. it’s really tough to predict snowfall though outside of like 7 days

let’s say the average liquid for a month is 4”. if it’s a cold and dry month in terms of total liquid, it can be -3F and 3” total liquid… there’s less liquid because it’s cold. so it’s technically a “dry” month however, since you get 10” of snow for every 1” of liquid, that inch less in total liquid doesn’t really matter that much anymore when the proportion of liquid that falls as snow is higher

also, when it’s cold, especially well BN, you have lower PWATs, so you just aren’t dealing with the same amount of moisture than a seasonable or AN temp pattern. it’s quite difficult to get a legitimately cold and not very snowy pattern here

4th also looks better now

wow. 7th continues to have a very cohesive signal

they’re definitely much more useful than OP runs past 7 days out, though. they’re used to identify periods of risk. i’ve seen way too much emphasis on day 10-15 OP runs recently on multiple forums and i find it odd

7th still looking spicy. lots of confluence, good airmass in place, and a potent vort swinging through

lol this is pretty much a cave to the EPS guidance

i’d consider this a cave to the EPS guidance

total cave

GEFS masterclass

GEFS masterclass

GEFS masterclass

lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place

any reason why?

here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum: as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while

here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum: as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while

GEFS looks like it's caving to the EPS. and yeah the airmass will suck until around the 3rd... first storm risk is Jan 4-5, then a larger one Jan 6-8

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm since Feb 2021

the GEFS just made a pretty large move towards the EPS line of thinking with much lower heights in the GoA before the pattern gets going. leads to less crap getting stuck behind

also the upcoming pattern for most of early-mid Jan objectively looks very good. people can shit on it and PTSD reverse psychology their way out of it all they want but it doesn't change what pretty much every ensemble is showing

lol i guess all it takes is two crap winters for people to start trashing a respected met. god bless

I still think the 8th is the larger storm signal with the confluence more established, but the 5th can definitely work if you indeed eject a decent vort into confluence

fixed. even the GEFS becomes highly favorable after the 5th

that isn’t a weak blocking signal at all for 10+ days out. not every block is going to be +300m at that range