brooklynwx99

yup, it doesn’t really matter as long as the block is actually doing its job and… blocking stuff. the Atlantic is clogged up here. this isn’t some bootleg Greenland ridge, it’s a legit -NAO that’s trended stronger and more west based with time

this is honestly the KU progression we’ve been waiting for. west based block retrogrades and rots over the Davis Strait with confluence in place. both waves are easily visible

this is honestly the KU progression we’ve been waiting for. west based block retrogrades and rots over the Davis Strait with confluence in place

this is honestly the MECS progression we’ve been waiting for. west based block retrogrades and rots over the Davis Strait with confluence in place. some of our larger storms shared this same progression

yeah it’s not like a Nino STJ but as long as it has some influence it makes a big difference

wouldn’t call the STJ inactive at all. it’s definitely there with a split flow pattern

sure, the STJ isn’t roaring, but it’s definitely there. can see the jet dipping off the coast of Baja CA, so you’d be able to tap into the STJ if a vort does dig enough. the 18z GFS is a good example of that

my guess the 6-7th is a weaker wave that reinforces confluence for the 8-9th. ensembles really amplify the trough for that second window

very good agreement between the three major ensembles on a MECS pattern developing... all have a -EPO, -NAO, rising PNA, a 50/50 ULL, and an elongated TPV. all have an amplifying trough over the Plains to take advantage of the setup. not really sure if it's the wave on the 6-7th or the 8-9th... ensembles have the trough really blowing up for the latter timeframe. regardless, we're getting into the timeframe where this isn't really fantasy anymore

very good agreement between the three major ensembles on a MECS pattern developing... all have a -EPO, -NAO, rising PNA, a 50/50 ULL, and an elongated TPV. all have an amplifying trough over the Plains to take advantage of the setup. not really sure if it's the wave on the 6-7th or the 8-9th... ensembles have the trough really blowing up for the latter timeframe. regardless, we're getting into the timeframe where this isn't really fantasy anymore

very good agreement between the three major ensembles on a MECS pattern developing... all have a -EPO, -NAO, rising PNA, a 50/50 ULL, and an elongated TPV. all have an amplifying trough over the Plains to take advantage of the setup. not really sure if it's the wave on the 6-7th or the 8-9th... ensembles have the trough really blowing up for the latter timeframe. regardless, we're getting into the timeframe where this isn't really fantasy anymore

yup, that 7-9th time period is really intriguing. super consistent on all ensembles and everything seems to be lining up for it

the CONUS and Canada are going to be loaded with Arctic air... can easily see some overrunning / SWFE potential for NYC north (especially NE) at times if you can press the SE ridge down

this is a really coherent signal for a larger storm for the 7-8th timeframe... 50/50 ULL moves out and trough goes to town over the OH Valley with a great antecedent airmass in place, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA GEFS and GEPS are also similar with the general configuration

lol oh man. you have everything you need on the table here

yeah i want to see it get to D7... you have all of the pieces there for a large storm. GEPS is similar, gonna see how the EPS looks. models have really strengthened the blocking today

yeah I think the 4th is really difficult to pull off in terms of anything more... the 6-8th looks ripe on the GEFS as that trough becomes a 50/50

i don't think I need to explain this one very much

i don't think I need to explain this one very much

i’m a degreed meteorologist that does long range forecasting professionally. i’m actually quite conservative for my job, believe it or not. i have been looking at this stuff since I was 10 years old why be so condescending? you have some kind of nerve acting like you know better than me because of some crap I post on a weather forum. like seriously, how could you take the time to write all of this up and think it doesn’t sound incredibly sanctimonious. basically saying that i don’t even understand what i’m posting and some of you wonder why so many mets have left this subforum. posts like this. my god

i guess. i mean you never know if this is going to pan out verbatim, but if it did, that’s split flow with blocking over the top

lol this can’t be a serious post

would you like me to make posts about when the pattern is crappy? usually everyone knows when it’s not going to snow so i don’t really bother wasting any more space on it here you go. warm and wet, garbage pattern for the next week. no snow to speak of. is that enough balance?

i agree. I’m not calling for a monster storm or anything like that, but the advertised pattern after the 3rd or so does look highly favorable for snow and possibly a larger storm

even if you use that definition, i don’t see all that much support for a suppressive pattern. we don’t have a mega south based block or anything like that, and the ridge out west isn’t over the Plains. it’s not super active since there isn’t a roaring STJ like in a Nino, but it’s still favorable for cold and snow