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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. block is really doing its dirty work here. fits the pattern honestly
  2. the GEFS is a fancy OP 80% of the time so this is not surprising
  3. for anybody worried about suppression like what happened in Jan after the 15th or so, this is a much more classic block caused by a retrograding Scandi ridge... it's where it should be over the northern Davis Strait rather than south of Greenland. this is why those retrograding Scandi highs are so favorable - the orientation of the block is better with the TPV elongated over SE Canada rather than the N ATL
  4. can't believe that we have three legit chances for snowfall before the most favorable part of the pattern even sets in. pretty nuts and I'm excited
  5. for anybody worried about suppression like what happened in Jan after the 15th or so, this is a much more classic block caused by a retrograding Scandi ridge... it's where it should be over the northern Davis Strait rather than south of Greenland. this is why those retrograding Scandi highs are so favorable - the orientation of the block is better with the TPV elongated over SE Canada rather than the N ATL
  6. for anybody worried about suppression like what happened in Jan after the 15th or so, this is a much more classic block caused by a retrograding Scandi ridge... it's where it should be over the northern Davis Strait rather than south of Greenland. this is why those retrograding Scandi highs are so favorable - the orientation of the block is better with the TPV elongated over SE Canada rather than the N ATL
  7. kinda wild that the rippage on the GFS is while the block is still maintaining strength. the big dog isn't even popping up yet
  8. luckily there is potential beforehand for snowfall. that's just when the pattern ends which is a ways away
  9. very good agreement on an anomalous, west-based -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and vort digging into the Rockies. if you're looking for a bigger storm, this is the timeframe to watch. makes sense, as retrograding Scandinavian blocks often lead to larger storms when they decay
  10. pretty stunning blocking signal around that time. vort digging into the Rockies, confluence in place, and a rotting west based block
  11. you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies
  12. i get your point, but could you imagine the weenies thrown if the ensembles showed the TPV west and a ridge popping over the east and someone posted a loop of the D12-15 OP showing a cold pattern? they would get clowned
  13. yeah, why use the ensembles when you can use a random OP run
  14. the -PNA is temporary. that trough in the west swings through and it's full steam ahead
  15. Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS
  16. Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS
  17. excuse me, you said that's a +NAO? in what world is this a +NAO
  18. the 10th percentile for NYC on the EPS is like 10”. anything but skewed high
  19. this is with like 12-18” on the mean already btw
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